Sometimes the unknown can be a pitcher's best friend. After all, the craft is about deception. It is hard to fool someone multiple times.
How else can you explain Christian Friedrich's 17 strikeouts to two walks in 13 innings (1.39 ERA)? Friedrich didn't have two starts back-to-back in the minor leagues. Now, he is a star in the majors.
Yes, he is a top prospect just making his way, but big-league hitters are going to catch up to him.
Ask Michael Pineda. OK, bad example because he got hurt, but the story is the same. Young pitchers start fast and tail off.
It tends to be tough to trade pitching in fantasy. It comes a little easier when the pitcher looks like a world-beater. Last week in the Friday pitching report, we outlined some guys to buy low on. Save for John Danks' awful start Monday -- still buy low -- it worked out so well, we are giving you some sell high guys to trade to make deals with.
We might as well start at the top. Coming off his complete-game shutout of the Marlins, Beachy sits No. 1 in fantasy in standard scoring leagues. At 5-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.889 WHIP, he looks like he is headed for a breakthrough second season.
Sell, sell, sell. Beachy has gotten by on smoke and mirrors. Adjustments are going to be made and his numbers are going to suffer. Plus, when he gets past 150 innings, his arm is surely going to balk at him.
The best time to sell him is while he is hot right now. He won't finish among the top 30 starters, much less anywhere near the top 5.
See a pattern here? Yet another young arm. Lynn won six consecutive starts before taking his first loss last time out. At 6-1 with a 1.81 ERA, he looks like the NL Rookie of the Year to date. Sell, sell, sell.
Lynn is a player who went from 14 percent ownership on CBSSports.com in Week 1 to 95 percent now. You are playing with the house's money. Turn this chip in for a veteran now.
Milone already has five victories. It puts him on pace for 20 as a rookie. Well, the bet here is he takes two losses in his two-start Week 8, against the Angels and Yankees.
You'll probably find more people buying than selling on Milone right now, since he looks like a capable mixed-league fantasy arm. Don't be a buyer. Milone will be mixed-league waiver fodder in a month.
He looks like a sure-thing now, doesn't he? Well, he really isn't a sell yet. Wait for him to pitch well against the Mariners on Saturday. That is a favorable matchup.
Then see what you can get for him. It is a dirty trick flipping waiver-wire pickups after three starts, but this is a cutthroat fantasy world.
He has yet to lose a game and is up to 78 percent ownership with a 2.31 ERA and 1.103 WHIP. The odds are he has some value to squeeze out of him before the wheels fall off.
All of this may sound like we hate young pitching. Actually, not at all. It has its place for a little while, then you throw it away and start over.
When you start over, pick up Trevor Bauer. He just moved up to Triple A and is one young arm we wouldn't dare suggest selling right now.
• We just might have found a future for White Sox flamethrower
• So much for
• The Marlins have already gone back to
• The Mets are still looking for a closer of the future and it might be