New Orleans Saints (vs. Miami Dolphins) -- I think the Saints will likely win this game. They're favored by nearly a touchdown and are absolutely beloved by Pro Football Focus' metrics. The site ranks their offense third and defense sixth thus far in 2013. The reason for staying away from them this week is two-fold. First, Miami has looked great this season, and has two impressive wins this year, Week 2 at Indianapolis and last week at home against Atlanta. Second, so long as you have the Broncos or Colts available, you have a safer pick on the board and can save the Saints, who undoubtedly will have a few weeks down the road when it will be more advantageous to take them. Week 8, when they host Buffalo, looks like one of those weeks. They aren't a bad pick in terms of being too risky, but the payoff for taking them is slim.