Draft or Pass: Dak Prescott Exceeds High Draft Value Just Outside First QB Tier

SI Fantasy expert Ben Heisler believes that Dak Prescott will outperform the already lofty expectations following his excellent 2019 season.
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It's never too early to start your fantasy football research, and we at SI Fantasy want to provide you with the best information possible heading into your drafts. Our "Draft or Pass" video series takes a closer look at a fantasy player that will be debated often leading up to fantasy drafts. Are our hosts targeting this player specifically? Are they avoiding him entirely?

Today's video focuses on Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott.

Draft or Pass at current ADP (average draft position): 61 (QB3)

Prescott picked an ideal time to bet on himself heading into 2019.

With a contract decision looming, Prescott ignited the Cowboys off to a blistering start to the season. In Dallas' first three games, he threw for nine touchdowns and 920 yards while leading the Cowboys to an undefeated start. He averaged 27.9 fantasy points during those first three games, higher than that of Lamar Jackson, who went on to not only win MVP but shatter multiple fantasy records at the position.

Prescott didn’t stop there.

He threw for a career-high 30 touchdowns, seven more than his previous career-high from his rookie season. He went from 3,885 yards in 2018 to 4,902 in 2019, while also establishing personal bests in yards-per-attempt (8.2), adjusted yards gained per-attempt (8.4), and yards gained per pass completion (12.6). He finished as the overall QB2 after finishing QB6, 11, and 10 in his previous three seasons.

The Prescott transformation was a fantasy dream, but the Cowboys still finished 8-8 on the year in a very winnable NFC East division. With negotiations being dragged out through the media since the beginning of training camp a season ago, the much-discussed Cowboys quarterback agreed to sign the franchise tender for 2020: a one-year deal worth $31.409 million, according to Dallas insider Mike Fisher over at Cowboy Maven.

In theory, Prescott should continue his fantasy reign for at least one more season while remaining in Dallas.

The Cowboys have bid good riddance to Jason Garrett after nine seasons of what felt like inevitable mediocrity. One could argue the switch to Mike McCarthy is a continuation of the past (raises hand yelling audibly from the back of the crowd). Still, at least McCarthy can say that he has a Super Bowl and coached arguably the most-talented quarterback in NFL history with Aaron Rodgers.

Even with McCarthy leading the offense and likely the playcalling, Prescott is set up for another successful 2020 fantasy season. With the addition of first-round speedster CeeDee Lamb to the mix, the Cowboys will have three formidable options at the wide receiver spot, with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup on the outside. You should expect Lamb to start as a slot option to replace the departed Randall Cobb.

Even Vegas is buying in on Prescott, having him as just one of six quarterbacks projected for over 4,000 yards, with only Patrick Mahomes (4,500.5), Matt Ryan (4,500.5), and Jared Goff (4,325.5) coming in ahead.

In a 12-team PPR league, Prescott’s ADP stands at 61, going as the QB3 off the board. That’s right at the start of the sixth round, where most fantasy players presumably have the core of their offensive starters already in hand. As much as I like to advocate for late-round quarterbacks, I would draft Prescott based on his current draft position because his situation sets up to the most advantageous level of his career. His offense is adapting both at head coach and personnel on the field.

Prescott bet on himself last year, and it's looking more and more like that bet will pay off. If the price is a sixth-round pick, it's worth getting in on the action.

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