Week 10 NFL DFS Reports
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,800)
Murray jumped past Russell Wilson for the quarterback scoring lead (32.98 FPPG) after delivering back-to-back dominating outings (41.70 and 41.75 fantasy points). He extended his rushing scoring streak to four games while inching closer (76/543/8) to a better season than Lamar Jackson (176/1,206/7) on the ground. Murray is on pace for 5,346 combined yards with 48 touchdowns. The Bills slipped to 20th in quarterback defense (23.09 FPPG), with three teams (LAR – 325/3, TEN – 237/4, and SEA – 390/3) scoring over 30.00 fantasy points. Quarterbacks have also had success against running the ball (35/179/4) against Buffalo. High floor player with another matchup with upside.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)
After a disaster game (160/0 with two interceptions) in Tampa, Rodgers shined in his previous three games (283/4, 300/3, and 312/4). His floor has been 26.00 fantasy points in six of his eight starts. He is on pace for 4,628 yards and 48 touchdowns and a career-high in completions over 20 yards (62) and 40 yards (18). A one-trick pony at wide receiver (Davante Adams) drives his success. Adams has been exceptional in four different games (14/156/2, 13/196/2, 7/53/3, and 10/173/1). The Jaguars fell to 30th in quarterback defense (26.34) with two opponents (HOU – 359/3 and LAC – 415/4) posting impact games. Jacksonville allows 8.5 yards per pass attempt with risk as well against the run. Aaron Jones will score a couple of touchdowns, which does lower the explosiveness of Rodgers. A reliable quarterback option in Week 10, but I expect him to be beaten by a couple of other players with better matchups.
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,900)
Over the last three games, Wilson threw five interceptions, which puts him on pace for a career-high 16 Ints. His high-octane start over eight games projected to 5,612 combined yards and 58 touchdowns. Wilson has three touchdowns or more in seven of his eight games. In 2019, the Rams kept him check at home (245/0) while Wilson shined at home (300/4). Los Angeles comes into this matchup ranking second in quarterback defense (17.96 FPPG), with their only failure came in Week 3 (BUF – 319/4). Wilson looks to be an against the grain play based on his matchup despite his stellar resume.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,700)
With fantasy owners getting restless after three dull games (17.30, 20.45, and 15.00 fantasy points), Allen delivered his best game of the success (420 combined yards and four touchdowns) against the Seahawks. He remains fourth in quarterback scoring (27.84 FPPG) with three other impact games (33.30, 38.65, and 36.35 fantasy points). The Cardinals are league average defending quarterbacks (22.81 FPPG). The Panthers (308/3) and Seahawks (472/4) delivered winning games with quarterbacks gaining 175 yards with one touchdown on 25 rushes over the last five weeks. The Bills travel on the road after two straight big wins (NE and SEA) at home, which may lead to a step back in production even with high ranking at DraftKings in Week 10.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,300)
Watson played well over his previous five games (1,732 combined yards and 13 touchdowns), with his highlight game (35.35 fantasy points) coming in Week 6. His only rushing touchdown came in Week 1, despite running the ball well over the month (11/139). Watson sits sixth in quarterback scoring (25.94 FPPG). The Browns have been up and down defending quarterbacks (24.44 FPPG) with two disaster games (DAL – 514/4 and CIN – 456/4) on the road. Four opponents have three touchdowns or more against Cleveland. The Browns allow close to 30 points per game, which gives Watson a chance at a competitive showing.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,000)
Herbert continues to drive the fairway game after game. He moved to seventh in quarterback scoring (24.74 FPPG), which includes no points in Week 1 with Tyrod Taylor starting. Over the last five games, he gained 1,638 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and three interceptions. His best play came in Week 7 (41.95 fantasy points) at home against the Jaguars. Miami had no answer for Kyler Murray last week (41.75 FPPG), which came after holding quarterbacks to fewer than 18.00 fantasy points in four of their previous five games. The Dolphins also struggled in Week 2 against Josh Allen (38.65 fantasy points) at home. There is a lot to like here, but the Chargers may also have success running the ball in close.
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,400)
At the midpoint of 2020, Goff has three games with three touchdowns and three outings with over 300 yards passing. His best showing (31.45 FPPG) came in Week 3 in Buffalo. He currently ranks 15th in quarterback scoring (21.19 FPPG). Last year Goff gained 688 combined yards and three touchdowns in two games against Seattle. The Seahawks continue to be the worst team in the NFL defending the quarterback position (31.84 FPPG) with four opponents NE – 444/3, DAL – 498/3, ARI – 427/4, and BUF – 429/4) delivering impact games. Right kind of matchup, especially with Seattle expected to put up a fight on the scoreboard.
Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,600)
Halfway through the season, Brees is on pace for 4,240 yards and 38 touchdowns despite Michael Thomas only have eight catches for 68 yards in two games. He has almost the same stats at home (1,060/10) and away (1,060/9). Brees doesn’t have a game with over 300 yards passing and more than one touchdown. His top fantasy score (27.55) came in Week 7. In 2019, he lit up the 49ers for 350 yards and six touchdowns. San Francisco drifted back to 14th in quarterback scoring (22.24 FPPG) with failure in three of the last five matchups (MIA – 366/3, SEA – 284/4, and GB – 311/4). Brees plays well at home, and his floor should be 300/3 game with more upside if Michael Thomas hits his stride.
Tom Brady, TB (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,800)
The last time Brady threw three interceptions in a game was September 9th in 2011. Since that outing not including last week), he passed for 40,689 yards with 289 touchdowns and 75 Ints over 145 games. His disappointing (7.45 fantasy points) pushed him down to 11th in quarterback scoring (22.77 FPPG). Brady has two impact games (369/5 and 369/4). In Week 2, the Panthers held him to 217 yards and one touchdown. Carolina has the 10th ranked defense (20.93 FPPG) against quarterbacks with some regression in two (NO – 295/4 and KC – 372/4) of their past three games. The Panthers allow only 6.9 yards per pass attempt with struggles defending running backs. Brady will be motivated in this matchup, and his receiving core is improving.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,400)
Roethlisberger landed on the Covid list on Monday due to close contact with Vance McDonald. If he doesn’t test positive, Roethlisberger will be able to play on Sunday. After being relatively quiet in the passing production in 2020, he posted his best outing (306/3) in a chaser game in Week 9 against the Cowboys. Roethlisberger gains only 6.7 yards per pass attempt while being on pace for 3,868 yards and 36 touchdowns. The Bengals sit 15th defending quarterbacks (22.74 FPPG) with struggled twice (IND – 371/3 and CLE – 316/5) over the last three weeks. If Roethlisberger plays this week, he looks poised to post his best game of the year. Pittsburgh has depth at wide receiver, and they should have no problem defeating this secondary.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,000)
After tripping up in a favorable matchup against Atlanta in Week 8 (176/1), Bridgewater played well against the Chiefs (329/3). He still doesn’t have a game with over two passing touchdowns. The addition of Christian McCaffrey last week was a significant boost to the Panthers’ offense, but his status for this week looks to be up in the air due to a shoulder injury. Bridgewater continues to have a high completion rate (71.9) while gaining 7.9 yards per attempt. He passed for 367 yards and no touchdowns in Week 2 against the Bucs. Tampa played well against quarterbacks (20.31 FPPG – 8th) before coming up short last week (34.60 fantasy points) against the Saints. Not ideal, but he does have receiving talent.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,000)
After an explosive game (297/5), Mayfield struggled to make plays the next week (122/0) in a bad weather game. He gained fewer than 200 yards in five of his eight starts. The Texans rank 24th in quarterback defense (24.41 FPPG), with most of their struggles from the previous three games (TEN – 364/4, GB – 282/4, and JAC – 317/2). The Browns will run the ball well in this matchup, leaving Mayfield on the short side passing stick.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,500)
The touchdown/interception tally for Wentz remains tied at 12 after eight games. He’s gaining only 6.2 yards per pass attempt, but his improved value as a runner (39/202/5) helped his overall value (23.29 FPPG – 9th). His best game (373/3) of the year came in Week 7 against the Giants. New York played well-defending quarterbacks (21.43 – 13th) in all but one game (32.55 – Philly). The Giants allow 7.9 yards per pass attempt, which does invite risk against wide receivers. The Eagles should have their best receiving core on the field in weeks.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,300)
Stafford struggled to make plays against the Vikings (211/1) while playing without his top receiver. The previous week he posted his best results (336/3). After eight games, he is on pace for 4,254 yards and 28 touchdowns. Washington has the ninth-best defense against quarterbacks (20.45 FPPG), with their best showing coming over the last three weeks (112/1, 114/0, and 212/1) against the Giants (2) and Cowboys. Tough to get excited here.
Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,200)
Besides two games against the Browns (316/3 and 440/4), Burrow doesn’t have another performance of value for DraftKings. He passed for over 300 yards in five contests with strength in his completion rate (67.0). His one impact game (39.70 fantasy points) came at home. The Steelers rank fifth defending quarterbacks (17.95 FPPG) with no opponent scoring over 23.00 fantasy points. Pittsburgh has a top pass rush (31 sacks), and the Bengals’ offensive line will give up plenty of sacks (28). Burrow will have a short passing window, which points to a subpar outing.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)
Miami is 2-0 after the change to Tagovailoa at quarterback. His play was much improved against the Cardinals (283/2), highlighted by his completion rate (71.4) and yards per pass attempt (8.9). The Chargers are 29th in quarterback defense (25.15 FPPG). Three teams (KC – 356/2, TB – 366/5, and 339/2) scoring over 30 fantasy points. Tagovailoa has the talent to show more growth if this game is played at a fast pace.
Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,100)
The Broncos’ quarterback play showed growth over the last two games (248/3 and 360/3). Even with success, Lock gained a short yard per pass attempt in four (6.5, 6.4, 6.0, and 6.5) in his five full contests. The Raiders regressed vs. the quarterback position in four (BUF – 288/3, KC – 361/3, TB – 370/4, and LAC – 350/2). Las Vegas fell to 26th against quarterbacks (24.44 FPPG). Denver will have success in rushing touchdowns, which closes the upside window of Lock.
Derek Carr, LV (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,900)
Carr has strength in his touchdown (16) to interception ratio (2) while on a path for 4,220 combined yards and 32 touchdowns. He struggled in back-to-back games (111/1 and 165/2), which came after a productive five-game stretch (1,487/12). His only playable game (347/3) came in Week 5 against the Chiefs. In 2019, Carr passed for 650 yards and two touchdowns in two games against the Broncos. Denver allowed over 20.00 fantasy points to quarterbacks in all eight games, but no team scored over 27.00 fantasy points. Reasonable floor with enough upside to work for his salary level.
Jake Luton, JAC (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,700)
In his first NFL start, Luton passed for 304 yards with two combined touchdowns. Both his completion rate (68.4) and yards per pass attempt (8.0) graded well. The Packers played three of their past four games on the road, which led to only five sacks, a weakness for the Jaguars' offensive line (24 sacks allowed). Green Bay worked their way to sixth in quarterback defense (19.95 FPPG) with success in four (15.25, 16.50, 12.00, and 16.55 fantasy points) of their previous five games. Their biggest struggles came in two games (NO – 288/3 and 347/2). I need to see more before riding Luton in the daily contests on the road.
Nick Mullens, SF (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,600)
Over parts of five games, Mullens passed for 1,143 yards and five touchdowns with strength in his completion rate (68.4) and yards per pass attempt (8.6). The 49ers should have their top wide receivers back in the starting lineup this week with better play expected from Jordan Reed. New Orleans dominated Tom Brady and the Bucs' passing game (7.45 FPPG) in Week 9, but they did allow over 20.00 fantasy points in their other seven matchups. The Packers (283/3) and Chargers (264/4) had the most success against the Saints. More of a dart than a target, but the 49ers will need to pass to stay in the hunt.
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