Week 10 NFL DFS Reports
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $8,200/FD – $9,000)
The string of unplayable games in the daily space extended to five weeks for Kamara. He gained 598 yards with two touchdowns and 33 catches (20.96 fantasy points) over this span, which grades well, but it doesn’t fill his high salary bucket. The Saints continue to rotate backs in the run game, leading to only 12 rushes per game for Kamara and no games with over 100 yards rushing. He is on pace for 120 catches for 1,130 yards and six touchdowns. The 49ers are 3rd in running back defense (18.81 FPPG). San Fran hasn’t allowed over 115 yards rushing since Week 1 with backs scoring only three touchdowns on the ground. Kamara carries the “due tag,” but he can’t pay off without multiple touchdowns.
Aaron Jones, GB (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,800)
The circle play at running back in Week 10 at DraftKings is Jones. Davante Adams dominated over the last three contests (13/196/2, 7/53/3, and 10/173/1), which means he’ll be the focus of the Jaguars’ defensive game plan this week. After two missed games, the Packers had Jones on the field 61 percent of their plays with 20 touches for 79 combined yards and five catches. His only impact game (236 combined yards with three touchdowns and four catches) came at home in Week 2. Three teams (IND – 50.80, CIN – 44.00, and DET – 43.10 fantasy points) already dominated Jacksonville, pushing to 27th in running back defense (27.93 FPPG). I fully expect 150 combined yards with two touchdowns and three to five catches.
James Conner, PIT (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,600)
Surprisingly, the Steelers fell behind early against the Cowboys, which led to Conner's empty game (20 combined yards with two catches). Over his four starts at home, he gained 435 combined yards with four touchdowns and 10 catches. His best game (24.90 fantasy points) falls short of his desired output for his salary this week. The Bengals rank 19th defending running backs (24.08 FPPG) with one disaster showing (CLE – 234 combined yards with four touchdowns and four catches). Cincinnati allowed 5.2 yards per carry with running backs scoring nine touchdowns. Pittsburgh should score over 30 points, giving Conner sneaky upside.
Nick Chubb, CLE (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200)
Chubb returned to practice this week, which gives him a chance to play on Sunday after missing four games. In his two full matchups at home, he gained 243 combined yards with four touchdowns and two catches or 28.15 FPPG. Even if Chubb is activated, he may be eased into action. Priced too high for me even with a favorable game.
Kareem Hunt, CLE (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,500)
In his four starts with Nick Chubb injured, Hunt gained 325 combined yards with two touchdowns and 10 catches. The Browns dominated on the ground from Week 2 to Week 4 (112/680/8) with some success in the passing game (9/59/2). Houston ranks 30th in running back defense (30.46 FPPG) with struggles in four contests (37.20, 32.00, 36.50, and 48.60 fantasy points). The Texans allow 5.1 yards per rush, with running back scoring 11 touchdowns. Both the Ravens (37/230/1) and Titans (27/263/2) rushed for over 200 yards. Hunt is rated high in Week 10, but the direction of Chubb’s health will change his projections and opportunity.
Mike Davis, CAR (DK – $6,700/FD – $5,400)
After another great game (151 combined yards with two touchdowns and 10 catches), Christian McCaffrey will miss another game this week. Davis carried the running back torch for the Panthers for three games (64.5 fantasy points), but he lost momentum in Week 7 (36 combined yards and five catches) and Week 8 (77 combined yards and a catch). Carolina will give him plenty of chances and snaps, but Tampa plays well against the run (3.3 yards per carry). Running backs have 59 catches for 417 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bucs, only against the grain for me.
James Robinson, JAC (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,300)
Robinson is the fourth-highest scoring running back (18.81 FPPG) in PPR leagues, with his best value coming in two games (30.90 and 31.70 fantasy points). Jacksonville gave him 49 touches over the last two weeks (236 combined yards with three touchdowns and four catches). The Packers have plenty of risk vs. the running back position (33.73 FPPG – 31st). Their biggest failure came in Week 3 (52.20) and Week 8 (49.60). Green Bay struggles with running backs in the passing game (52/474/4) while allowing 15 touchdowns. Robinson is an active player with a matchup that looks favorable.
Josh Jacobs, LV (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500)
At the midpoint of the year, Jacobs is on pace for 1,426 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 38 catches. His play has been better on the road (19.68 FPPG) thanks to two games (35.90 and 22.50 fantasy points). Jacobs rushed for over 100 yards in one game. In 2019, he played well at home against Denver (113 combined yards with two touchdowns and one catch). The Broncos are sixth in the league vs. running backs (19.81 FPPG), with only one lousy showing (35.90 fantasy points). Jacobs looks to be trending upward while remaining only a gamble at DraftKings.
Miles Sanders, PHI (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,700)
The Eagles expect Sanders to be back in the starting lineup this week after missing a couple of games. His production over five games projected for a full year would come to 1,680 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 38 catches. Sanders had two dull games (130 combined yards and seven catches) against the Giants in 2019. New York holds running backs to 3.7 yards per carry, with backs scoring 10 touchdowns. His best path to a big game may come in the passing game based on the Giants’ struggles (59/503/3). Sanders has both big-play and scoring ability, which keeps him in play in this matchup.
Chase Edmonds, ARI (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,100)
Edmonds went down as a bust in Week 9 (88 combined yards with three catches) despite receiving 28 touches and 96 percent of the running back snaps. Kenyan Drake returned to a limited practice this week, which may lead to him playing on Sunday. The Bills are league average defending running backs (23.76 FPPG) with only one team (KC – 232 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches) scoring over 30.00 fantasy points. Need more info here, but his matchup looks more steady, and Kyler Murray is a scoring thief on the ground.
Darrell Henderson, LAR (DK – $5,900/FD – $5,800)
Henderson left his game in Week 8 (58 combined yards and a catch) early with a thigh injury. With the Rams having a bye week, he was expected to be ready for this week’s contest. After missing practice on Wednesday, his status looks to be in flux on Sunday. His play was on the uptick in three different games (20.10, 19.00, and 21.80 fantasy points). Henderson remains in a split role, which limits his ceiling and lowers his floor. The Seahawks are 18th defending running backs (24.05 FPPG) with struggles in two weeks (38.40 and 30.20 fantasy points). Risk/reward play if he suits up on Sunday.
Antonio Gibson, WAS (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,100)
Gibson was out-snapped 83 to 46 in Week 9 by J.D. McKissic, which was somewhat due to game score. He landed on the injury report this week with a shoulder issue that led to a missed practice. Over his previous five games, Gibson gained 417 combined yards with three touchdowns and 16 catches. He sits 13th in running back scoring (13.45 FPPG) with two mid-level games (22.80 and 18.80 fantasy points). The Lions have the worst defense in the NFL vs. running backs (35.03 FPPG) with disaster in four games (57.00, 43.90, 46.60, and 55.30 fantasy points). In play, if his shoulder issue ends up being minor.
Jerick McKinnon, SF (DK – $5,600/FD – $5,500)
The 49ers gave McKinnon 74 percent of their snaps in Week 9, which was his best opportunity until in Week 4 (92 percent). He finished 68 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches on 15 touches against the Packers. Over the previous four games, McKinnon only had 24 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches. The Saints have the fourth-best defense against running backs (19.16 FPPG), with their past three opponents scoring fewer than 15.00 fantasy points. The wrong king of matchup and his touches could fall quickly after a slow start to the game.
Leonard Fournette, TB (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,400)
The Saints jumped out to a big lead in Week 9, which led to the Bucs abandoning the run game. Fournette finished with only one run for no yards while catching all six of his targets for 41 yards. Over his last three games, Fournette gained 209 combined yards with 15 catches on 42 touches while receiving 64.6 percent of the running back snaps. He came off the bench in Week 2 against the Panthers to gain 116 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches. Carolina improved to 28th against running backs (28.83 FPPG) after struggling in four (46.60, 45.90, 37.50, and 33.10 fantasy points) of their first five games of the season. Worth a dart.
Giovani Bernard, CIN (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,200)
When making the earlier projections, it appeared that Joe Mixon would return on Sunday after two games with a foot injury. After missing practice on Wednesday, Mixon may very well sit again this week. Bernard played well as the Bengals starter over the previous two games (174 combined yards with three touchdowns and eight catches on 36 touches). Even with success, Bernard gained only 3.5 yards per rush. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in running back defense (17.74 FPPG), with six opponents scoring fewer than 19.00 fantasy points. A tough matchup with questions about his playing time until we know Mixon's status.
Melvin Gordon, DEN (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,600)
Gordon's production has been minimal over the past two weeks (74 combined yards and seven catches). Denver had him on the field for 80 of 138 plays over this span compared to 57 by Phillip Lindsay. Gordon’s only game of value came in Week 4 (118 combined yards with two touchdowns and two catches). The Raiders inched up to 29th in running back defense (29.14 FPPG). Their season started with weakness vs. backs in Week 2 (48.20) and Week 3 (56.70). Las Vegas gave up two touchdowns top running backs in seven different games this year. Gordon should score at least one touchdown with an uptick action.
Zack Moss, BUF (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,800)
Buffalo gave Moss the majority of snaps over the last two games (53 and 56 percent). Over this span, he gained 129 combined yards with three touchdowns and three catches. The Bills turned to him at the goal line over the last two weeks (four carries inside the five-yard line). Arizona struggled in Week 1 (47.70) and Week 4 (37.40 fantasy points) against running backs. They improved to 17th (24.04 FPPG) in running back defense. In a split role and Josh Allen is also a threat to steal rushing touchdowns.
D’Andre Swift, DET (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,000)
The running back rotation for the Lions has been tough to time in 2020. Last week Swift led the team in running back snaps (40 percent), but he still managed 16 touches for 97 combined yards and three catches. His only game of value came in Week 6 (123 combined yards with two touchdowns and three catches). Swift is on pace for 914 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 52 catches. Washington improved to eighth in running back defense (20.34 FPPG) with minimal damage in the passing game (26/147/2). A wide range of outcomes here and his matchup isn't ideal.
Duke Johnson, HOU (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,800)
David Johnson missed practice on Wednesday due to his concussion injury suffered in Week 9. If he can’t go this week, Duke Johnson earns a starting job for the Texans. Last week he posted his best game (73 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches). Cleveland held running backs to fewer than 23.00 or fewer fantasy points in six of their eight games. They rank 14th defending running backs (23.34 FPPG), with backs scoring nine touchdowns. Reasonably priced with pass-catching upside if he earns the starting gig.
J.D. McKissic, WAS (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,300)
Over the last five games, McKissic picked up 30 catches for 210 yards on 38 targets with some success on the ground (19/102). Last week he had a season-high 14 targets, leading to nine catches for 65 yards. If Antonio Gibson can’t play this week, McKissic will pick up some carries, but Peyton Barber will be the lead runner on early downs. His lack of scoring does hurt his playability.
Wayne Gallman, NYG (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,700)
Gallman extended his scoring streak to three games while delivering 193 yards with seven catches. Over this span, the Giants gave him 14.3 touches per game. Devonta Freeman has a chance to pay this week, which would lower Gallman's opportunity. The Eagles played well vs. the running back position over their previous four games (17.80, 15.50, 18.50, and 16.70 fantasy points), lifting them to seventh in quarterback defense (20.24 FPPG). Lots of moving parts here, and his matchup does invite failure risk.
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