NFL DFS Week 6: Perfect Million-Dollar Lineup Guide
Living in the daily game world for any sport requires a lot of work with little reward for the casual player unless the stars align for one magical day. Most daily owners need to decide whether to be a grinder or a swing-for-the-fences player. One path keeps you alive for more days of action with the idea of building your bankroll slowly. The other has a donation feel while offering a pot of gold at the end of a distant rainbow.
Since the daily sites started offering the million-dollar overall prize, I’ve been trying to find my get-out-of-jail-free card. The goal is to handicap the main football slate on Sunday and invest in the best possible combination of foundation players. If my key players have success, I will be in the hunt with many teams. Each football season, I expect to be in the mix in four or five weeks.
All players listed are for the main slate of games on Sunday.
The winning build in Week 5 started with a three-player stack from the Chargers (Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams). Any owner tying this combo to Alexander Mattison, Antonio Brown, Davante Adams and Kadarius Toney had a foundation of over 256 fantasy points in PPR leagues while needing to roster a kicker and defense.
A Tom Brady, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown combination scored over 107 points, but many of these rosters were hurt by Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki coming up short on Sunday.
Quarterback Stacks
Four of the top six quarterbacks in these stacks have road games in Week 6. Justin Herbert (45.82) and Lamar Jackson (46.88) finished first and second in fantasy points scoring in Week 5 while drawing each other in this week’s matchup.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs and Mahomes came up short vs. the Bills, leaving Kansas City with a 2-3 record (last in the AFC West) and plenty of questions on their defensive ability. Mahomes failed to pass for over 300 yards in his previous three contests, but he did pick up the pace on the ground (17/132) over this stretch. Both the Chargers and Bills held him to under 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Despite some struggles, Mahomes remains on an elite pace (5,586 combined yards with 58 touchdowns) over a 17-game schedule.
Washington’s defense finished third in quarterback defense (15.25 FPPG) in 2020 while also ranking sixth vs. wide receivers (28.83 FPPG). So far this season, only the Chiefs have played worse against the quarterback position due to significant issues defending wideouts (80/1,036/7 on 123 targets – 29th).
SI Sportsbook had an over/under of 55 as of Thursday afternoon. Kansas City will allow plenty of points, and Mahomes may need to carry the team on his back if the Chiefs want to stay in the playoff hunt. He’s projected for 344 combined yards with 3.5 touchdowns at Sports Illustrated in this matchup. Any investment in Mahomes in the daily space requires Tyreek Hill (quad) to be cleared from his injury status on Sunday.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
The top end of the quarterback pool has seven players averaging over 27.75 fantasy points per game. Herbert moved to fifth in the league (28.58 FPPG) after a massive showing (45.82 fantasy points) against the Browns. Mike Williams (31/471/6) moved into beast status despite disappearing in Week 4 (1/11). He ranks third in wide receiver scoring (23.22 FPPG), a mere 7.84 fantasy points higher than Keenan Allen (34/369/1). Herbert has 12 scores over his last three starts.
Baltimore has already allowed over 400 yards passing in two games (LV – 435/2, IND – 402/2), leading to quarterbacks gaining 8.2 yards per pass play. Offenses have beaten them with their running backs (30/342/1) and tight ends (36/420/3) in the passing game.
This week, I would expect the Ravens to run the ball better, which will keep the ball out of Herbert’s hands. Lamar Jackson set career highs in passing yards (442) against the Colts, and his passing attempts per game (33.4) are well above his numbers in 2019 (26.7) and 2020 (25.1). I love the direction of Herbert, but his ticket may fall short of expectations in this matchup. Williams also has a slight knee issue that may end up being minor.
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
I posted my thoughts on Burrow for his Week 6 matchup in Thursday's DFS article. At some point this season, a Burrow stack with two of his wide receivers will come in. If not, I’m going to donkey off a lot of money in the daily space.
Steve Roberts/USA Today Sports
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Touchdowns (4) have been a problem for Murray over his last three starts. His completion rate has been over 70 percent in four straight games, and his floor has been 7.7 yards per attempt in five games this season. In 2020, he gained over that number in five of his 16 starts. Murray came out of last week’s matchup with a sore right shoulder, but he expects to play on Sunday.
The Browns’ defense came out of last week’s game with multiple players listed as questionable for Sunday’s matchup. Cleveland continues to play well vs. the run (3.4 yards per carry), but the Chargers did have the most success (23/112/3) last week. In addition, communication was a problem in the Browns’ secondary in Week 5, leading to a couple of easy scores for Mike Williams. Los Angeles’ wideouts caught 18 of their 31 targets for 287 yards and two touchdowns. Cleveland also struggled against the Chiefs’ wide receivers in Week 1 (16/231/1).
Murray looks to be the top quarterback that will be a lower-percentage own based on his recent direction and shoulder issue. This year's direction as a runner (30/110/3) is well behind pace in rushing yards (374) compared to 2020 (819). DeAndre Hopkins missed a couple of practices this week with an illness. If he can’t play, Murray falls out of my top six quarterback wish list.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
A chaser game against the Colts led to Jackson having the best passing day (442/4) of his career. He completed 86 percent of his passes while gaining a season-high 10.3 yards per pass attempt. In each week this year, Jackson has one completion over 40 yards. He also is on pace for a career-best in completions (82) over 20 yards despite averaging only 33.4 passes per game. His success in Week 5 pushed Jackson to third in quarterback scoring (30.41 FPPG).
The Chargers sit sixth in the league defending quarterbacks (94.45 FPPG). Cleveland beat their defense for 305 passing yards and two scores. Los Angeles faced Dak Prescott (237/0), Patrick Mahomes (305/3) and Derek Carr (196/2). They allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt, but quarterbacks have attempted only 31.6 passes against them. The Chargers can be beat on the ground (DAL – 31/198/2, K.C. – 30/186, CLE – 35/205/3), pointing to Jackson and the Ravens shortening the game on the ground. I have him projected for 314 combined yards with 2.50 touchdowns.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Over his last three starts, Stafford has passed for 988 yards with seven touchdowns. His best success in scoring came over the first three weeks (nine touchdowns). He continues to make big plays (seven catches over 40 yards and 22 completions of 20 yards or more). Stafford has a floor of 21.0 fantasy points this year while offering one plus showing (33.15 fantasy points). The Rams’ wide receivers lead the league in yards (1,302), second in catches (85), and second in targets (130).
The Giants faded to 25th in quarterback defense (25.30 FPPG) after fading over the past two matchups (N.O. – 253/3, DAL – 330/3). The Saints gained their edge with Taysom Hill stealing a pair of rushing touchdowns. Dallas gained 9.8 yards per pass attempt, with their wideouts (11/215/2) doing most of the damage.
New York comes into this game with multiple injuries to their offensive players, leading to questionable scoring from the Giants. Stafford has the weapons to test this defense deep, but he needs New York to put up a fight on the scoreboard.
Foundation Core Players
Last week there were many outs at the running back position from a wide range of salaries. Fifteen backs scored over 20.0 fantasy points, and four players finished with over 30.0 fantasy points.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Over the past two weeks, Taylor has started to hit his stride. He would have the top running back billing in Week 6 if the Colts would give him more touches. I wrote about his opportunity and matchup in my DFS article this week.
RB Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Last week an ankle injury led to Mixon being on the field for only 28 percent of the Bengals’ plays compared to 78, 84 and 74 percent over the first three weeks. He remains on the injury report with an ankle issue. In addition, Cincy should be without Samaje Perine (COVID-19), possibly creating a high volume opportunity for Mixon if he loses the questionable tag by Sunday.
Detroit allowed 720 combined yards with 10 touchdowns and 19 catches to running backs, ranking 29th in running back defense. Two backs rushed for over 100 yards (David Montgomery – 23/106/2, Alexander Mattison – 25/113), while Aaron Jones has the best overall game (115 combined yards with four touchdowns and six catches).
WR Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
The Aaron Rodgers-to-Adams combination clicked in Week 3 (12/132/1) and Week 5 (11/206/1) with 34 combined targets. The Packers play their fourth game on the road in six weeks, but they have won four straight matchups. In 2020, Adams only had two steady games (6/61/1 and 6/46/1) against the Bears.
Cooper Kupp had his way against Chicago in Week 1 (7/108/1), and Van Jefferson and Robert Woods combined for five catches for 107 yards and two more scores. The Bengals barely threw the ball in Week 2 (30 passes), but their top three wideouts did combine for 15 catches for 187 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears haven’t faced a top wide receiver over their last three matches (CLE, DET, LV).
Adams appears to be the safest player on the board this week. The key to his ceiling is better quarterback play by Chicago’s Justin Fields (need him to keep the game competitive). To pay off, Adams most likely needs to score multiple touchdowns.
WR Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes looked Hill’s way 25 times over the last two weeks. His best production came in Week 1 (11/197/1) and Week 4 (11/186/3), but he also has three short scores (3/29, 5/67, and 7/78). Overall, Hill ranks second in wide receiver scoring (23.22 FPPG).
In four matchups, Washington has been beaten up by wide receivers (LAC – 24/278/1, NYG – 15/186/1, BUF – 23/277/2, N.O. – 8/185/3). Despite their struggles, only one wideout gained 100 yards (Keenan Allen – 9/100). In addition, two players have two scores (Emmanuel Sanders – 5/94/2, Marquez Callaway – 4/85/2).
Hill comes into Week 6 with a questionable tag due to a quad issue. However, I expect him to play, and Mahomes needs Hill to play well to win against Washington. They’ve allowed 13 touchdowns and four field goals over the last 35 possessions.
WR Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
McLaurin will be a popular daily game player this week. Both defenses struggle against the pass, and the Chiefs should score over 30 points. This recipe points to being active with multiple-touchdown upside. His entire outlook for this matchup can be found in my DFS article.
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
Defenses have kept Waller in check over his last four games (5/65, 5/54, 4/50/1, 4/45) while receiving 29 combined targets. His season started with an impact showing (10/105/1) due to a high volume of targets (19). In Denver in 2020, he caught nine of 10 targets for 117 yards and one touchdown.
Tight ends have 17 catches for 152 yards and no touchdowns on 27 targets against the Broncos. They faced four teams (NYG, JAC, NYJ, PIT) with poor production from their tight ends. Mark Andrews (5/67) is the only player with over two catches and more than 25 yards receiving.
Waller should be much more active in this matchup, and Denver will have a more challenging time defending him. I have him projected for seven catches for 77 yards and a touchdown.
Value Options
RB J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team
This week’s theme for the daily game points to catching a piece of Kansas City’s offense and finding the correlation option from Washington. A chase game bodes well for the opportunity for McKissic despite inconsistent play in 2021. He played well in Week 2 (93 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches) and Week 4 (5/59/1).
Running backs have 28 catches for 270 yards and one score against the Chiefs in five contests. However, more of Kansas City’s risk comes defending the run (136/705/9), leading to Antonio Gibson being the winning play.
I expect one of Washington’s backs to play well. The lower salary and pass-catching role for McKissic paints him as the more manageable investment.
RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs
The loss of Clyde Edwards-Helaire opens up a starting job for Williams in Week 6. Over the past three seasons, he gained 737 combined yards with two touchdowns and 40 catches on 146 touches. Williams has over 15 chances in a game only once in his career. His salary and potential opportunity look favorable, but Kansas City will get Jerick McKinnon involved as well. Williams should be active in the red zone and at the goal line.
Running backs have gained 596 combined yards with six touchdowns and 20 catches against Washington.
WR Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots
After five games, Meyers has 31 catches for 302 yards on 46 targets. He is on pace for 105 catches for 1,027 yards over a 17-game season. Meyers has 116 career catches for 1,390 yards over 34 games, but he is still looking for his first NFL score in the regular season.
Dallas ranks 27th vs. wide receivers (72/1,058/6), with four opposing teams gaining over 200 yards (TB – 17/250/2, LAC – 15/233/1, CAR – 16/224/2, NYG – 13/209). Five wide receivers gained over 100 yards (Antonio Brown – 5/121/1, Chris Godwin – 9/105/1, Keenan Allen – 4/104, D.J. Moore – 8/113/2, Kadarius Toney – 10/189).
His lack of scoring is a concern for anyone looking his way in the daily space. However, Meyers has a winnable matchup, and his scoring drought may end this week.
WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
A couple of missed games and minimal output in Week 5 (5/32) has kept Higgins’ salary down entering Week 6. He scored in his first two starts while catching 10 of his 15 targets for 118 yards and two scores. The fantasy world and most likely the Lions’ defense have focused on the early success of Ja’Marr Chase, but Higgins is a pretty talented player.
The Lions surprisingly rank 10th vs. wideouts (57/922/3 on 82 targets). Deebo Samuel lit up their defense in Week 1 (9/189/1), and three other wide receivers have gained over 100 yards (Davante Adams – 8/121, Darnell Mooney – 5/125, Justin Jefferson – 7/124).
Higgins brings scoring ability, but he needs the Bengals to attempt 35-plus passes to produce a competitive game for the daily contests.
Here’s my perfect lineup for Week 6:
More Fantasy Week 6 Coverage:
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical break downs for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. An inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!
