Running Back ADP Risers and Fallers: Isiah Pacheco, James Robinson, Alvin Kamara
The running back position has seen a lot of volatility this week as more news leaks from camp and preseason games are in full swing. Are drafters overreacting or too slow to adjust?
Let’s determine whether or not to fade the hype and draft the value.
(Note: ADPs are from NFFC)
FANTASY FOOTBALL ADP RISERS
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Pacheco has seen a meteoric rise from ADP 249, essentially undrafted two weeks ago, to pick 134. The hype train left the station as he has been getting glowing reports from camp. Patrick Mahomes said of the seventh-round pick out of Rutgers, "When you're big, fast and smart, good things happen."
Pacheco ran a 4.37 40 at the combine, which is especially impressive on his 215 lb. frame. In last week's preseason game, Pacheco was used briefly with the first team before being pulled on the second drive- another indication he could be considered valuable to this Chiefs offense. Pacheco could eat into the playing time for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon. This crowded backfield also includes Ronald Jones and Derrick Gore is still tricky to predict.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
If you were burned by Sermon before, I can't blame you for wanting to stay away, but the reports out of camp have been encouraging. Eli Mitchell is still expected to lead this backfield, but Shanahan is known for using a committee. Word is that they have been looking to improve their red zone conversion and are leaning toward bigger backs for goal-line work, which may not bode well for JaMycal Hasty. Sermon has been working with the first team, and he has been used particularly in the red zone. He could end up being a bigger part of the committee this year alongside Jeff Wilson Jr. Sermon was going at pick 244 just two weeks ago and has risen to pick 199. As the last pick of my draft, I am willing to take that shot.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
It's looking less and less likely that Kamara will miss any time this season, and if we see a full season of Kamara, wheels up. It's a shot many are willing to take, as Kamara has been one of the biggest fantasy assets, especially in PPR leagues. In his five years in the league, Kamara has never finished with fewer than 1,300 yards from scrimmage. We know for certain he will at least begin the season, so there seems to be no harm in drafting him early as long as you take a handcuff- which, let's face it, you should be doing anyway. Kamara was going at an ADP of 25 last week but is now coming off the board at pick 18.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson told reporters Thursday that he expects James Robinson to be ready for Week 1. Travis Etienne truthers are getting nervous. We have never seen Etienne play a snap in the NFL, but we have seen James Robinson operate as a very successful running back in the league. Pederson is known for using a committee, so likely the result is that Robinson exceeds his draft day ADP while Etienne will have to do a lot to earn his. I'm not saying not to draft Etienne, but, curiously, his stock has also risen from an ADP of 31 to 28. Please give me the value with Robinson, who has jumped from pick 132 to 126 and still represents great value.
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
FANTASY FOOTBALL ADP FALLERS
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
Gibson has fallen from pick 59 down to pick 70 after we watched him fumble in his second carry in the first preseason game, resulting in him being sent to the bench. He fumbled six times last season, so maybe this is just a teaching moment, but what makes matters worse is that he has been seen taking reps with special teams. Usually, your lead back isn't returning kicks. Meanwhile, rookie Brian Robinson is rising after he scored a touchdown and replaced Gibson in the preseason game. Robinson has risen from pick 164 to pick 145 and could be worth a flier. Just don't forget J.D. McKissic is still in town, too.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle backfield continues to take a beating as Rashaad Penny left practice last week with a groin injury, and this week we found out Kenneth Walker III is dealing with a hernia. The good news is that Penny returned to practice this week. It's clear that fantasy drafters are feeling even more timid with Penny's injury history. Penny dropped from an ADP of 89 to an ADP of 95; therefore, I am all in. Someone has to operate in this backfield; the further these two fall, the more likely I will grab them. DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer are next in line, but no need to grab them now. They should be on your waiver wire.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
This week Gordon was quoted as saying that the Broncos want Javonte Williams to be "the guy." Do you know how much I care about this? Zero. Of course, they want Williams to be "the guy." He's younger, and he's not on a one-year contract. You don't sign Melvin Gordon, the more efficient of the two backs with 203 carries in 2021, to a one-year contract unless you plan to use him. I think this is smoke. Gordon fell from an ADP of 106 to an ADP of 112, and I will take him there every time. He should easily outperform that draft day value.
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