Fabs' Top 10 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions for 2025

Michael Fabiano | Aug 17, 2025

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey a fantasy football bust? It could happen, according to Michael Fabiano's bold predictions. / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The NFL and fantasy football are almost always unpredictable.

Weird stuff happens in the NFL all the time. Predicting it can be difficult because these oddities aren’t really predictable based on the perceived reality of the situation.

Who had Baker Mayfield finishing fourth in fantasy points at quarterback ahead of projected breakout candidate C.J. Stroud? How about Rico Dowdle scoring more fantasy points than Kenneth Walker III, or Brian Thomas Jr. outscoring CeeDee Lamb?

If you made any of these bold predictions before last season, you would have been laughed at, heckled, called names and maybe fitted for a straitjacket.

You also would have been right.

There was no reason to think Stroud would be a dud (although I did have him in this column last year), or that Mayfield would go from journeyman quarterback to an elite fantasy asset. What’s more, no one in their right mind would have ever predicted that Thomas Jr. (a rookie) would outscore the great Lamb for the entire 2024 campaign.

So, let’s make like Michael Keaton in the 1989 Batman movie … “Let’s get nuts!”

Here are 10 bold predictions that you’ll laugh at now, but might regret heeding at season’s end. We’ll start off with fantasy football’s QB1 last year, Lamar Jackson.

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2025 Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

Lamar Jackson will see a 100-point decline compared to 2024:  Jackson is coming off the best fantasy season of all time, so regression is coming … it’s just a matter of how much. In the 2023 season, Jackson averaged 20.7 points (or around five fewer points than last year). I think that’s a reasonable total to expect this season, and it still keeps Jackson in the top five. However, it’s not the same level of production he had in 2024.

J.J. McCarthy will finish as a top-12 fantasy football quarterback: McCarthy is in a great spot to succeed in coach Kevin O’Connell’s quarterback-friendly offense. Kirk Cousins was a regular in the top-12 during his time in Minnesota, and NFL Draft dud Sam Darnold went from zero to hero in his lone season in the system. McCarthy will endure growing pains in his first year as a starter, but he has big-time upside this season.

Saquon Barkley will be a huge fantasy football disappointment: I have written multiple articles about why Barkley is likely to see regression after his monumental 2024 season, so don’t be surprised if it comes to fruition. Whether it’s his heavy workload from a year ago, natural regression or one of the “curses” that are going against him, there’s at least some cause for concern. Don’t be shocked if he falls out of the top 10.

Ashton Jeanty will score more PPR points than Jahmyr Gibbs: I absolutely love Jeanty, and I don’t think it’s crazy to think that he outscores a fantasy superstar like Gibbs. He’s going to see plenty of touches in Brian Kelly’s offense, and we all know how much new head coach Pete Carroll likes to use one main back. Gibbs is also coming off a magical season with 20 touchdowns, and history shows he’ll very likely regress.

Christian McCaffrey won’t average more than 15 fantasy points: All the reports about CMC have been positive in terms of his health, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s been far less durable lately. Since 2020, he’s missed a combined 36 games due to injuries including last season, when he played in just four contests and averaged just 12 points. He’s also 29 years old, so McCaffrey’s best fantasy days are behind him.

Ja’Marr Chase will see a 100-point decline compared to 2024: Chase is coming off a big season that saw him score 17 touchdowns and 403 fantasy points … two stats he will struggle to duplicate. In fact, his 23.7 points-per-game average from last year is 5.5 more than his previous career average. I’m not suggesting Chase will be a bust (Barkley is a bigger risk), but regression is likely coming for the star wide receiver.

Chargers WR Ladd McConkey is now being drafted among the top 12 wide receivers in fantasy football in 2025. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Ladd McConkey will fall out of the top 20 wide receivers: I’m a big fan of McConkey, but his average draft position (ADP) has gone wild lately … he’s now being picked as a low-end WR1. Based on the fact that he’s coming off the best fantasy finish ever from a wideout in a Greg Roman offense (T-WR12), that’s too rich for my blood. Plus, the Chargers added two rookies in Tre Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and veteran tight end Tyler Conklin to the pass attack, which means targets could be spread out a bit more. The team also drafted Omarion Hampton, who will be a workhorse in the offense. When you also factor in that McConkey has had durability issues, and I can see him falling a bit.

DK Metcalf will score more than 275 fantasy points in 2025: Metcalf is coming off a down season with 191.2 points, but I think he’ll rebound in a big way as the No. 1 target for Aaron Rodgers. Last season, we saw Garrett Wilson (14.8 PPG) and Davante Adams (17.9 PPG) both average more than 14 points per game in New York with Rodgers under center. With a true alpha role in hand, Metcalf could push for a career year.

Brock Bowers won’t catch more than 75 passes in Year 2: Bowers went off in his rookie year, setting a record for first-year players with 112 receptions. He’s one of just 12 tight ends to hit the 100-catch mark (including Trey McBride last year) since 1966, and the first 10 experienced an average decline of 34 catches the following season. I’m not saying he will be a dud, but Bowers will likely take a statistical step back.

Evan Engram will finish as a top-five fantasy tight end: Engram had a disappointing 2024 campaign and was ultimately cut by the Jaguars. The good news is he landed in Denver, where head coach Sean Payton will utilize him in a prominent role. Guys like Jeremy Shockey, Jimmy Graham, Ben Watson, Coby Fleener and Jared Cook all found success in Payton’s system, and I like Engram to be next in line.