Fantasy Football: Second-Year Quarterbacks Who Will Become Fantasy Stars in 2025

Michael Fabiano | Jun 13, 2025

Bears QB Caleb Williams threw for 3541 yards and 20 touchdowns in his rookie season. / Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Fantasy football managers are always looking for the next big thing, mostly in the form of a potential sleeper or breakout candidate. Sometimes, looking at historical trends can give us some guidance. One such trend that’s occurred over the last few years features quarterbacks.

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Since 2015, at least one second-year signal-caller has exceeded expectations and become a draft steal heading into the 2024 season. That player has gone from being a late-rounder to a fantasy starter, and it wasn’t something that was expected in most of these cases.

Here’s a look at the quarterbacks who are behind this trend.

Blake Bortles, Jaguars (2015): The “Garbage Time King,” as he was known, Bortles saw his points-per-game total increase by 7.8 points compared to his rookie season. He finished fourth in all, scoring 316.1 fantasy points. However, this would be his best year in fantasy football, as Bortles saw his point totals decline in each of his final four NFL seasons.

Marcus Mariota, Titans (2016): The trend didn’t really come to fruition during this season, as Mariota was better from a fantasy perspective as a rookie than he was in Year 2. He did average a respectable 17.3 points per game, but that simply wasn’t a breakout season.

Carson Wentz, Eagles (2017): Wentz went off in 2017, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game as an NFL sophomore. That was up more than eight points compared to his rookie totals. Unfortunately, Wentz got hurt after 13 games. He still finished fifth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Like Bortles, this would also be Wentz’s best fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (2018): Mahomes’ situation differed from that of Bortles and Wentz in that he sat as a rookie behind Alex Smith. He produced one of his best fantasy seasons in Year 2, throwing for a bananas 5,097 passing yards and 50 touchdowns. In all, Mahomes averaged 26.1 points a game and was the top fantasy quarterback in 2018.

Lamar Jackson, Ravens (2019): Jackson started seven games as a rookie, averaging 9.9 fantasy points. Like the four other quarterbacks before him, he had one of his best fantasy season as an NFL sophomore with 43 total touchdowns, over 1,206 rushing yards and 415.7 points. Oddly, Jackson’s points declined each of the following three years before he bounced back with 331.2 points and an MVP performance in 2023. He hasn’t slowed down either, setting the record for the most fantasy points scored by a quarterback in 2024.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals (2020): Murray busted out as an NFL sophomore, scoring 378.7 fantasy points on the strength of his 37 total touchdowns. What’s more, he averaged 5.9 more points per game than he had during his rookie campaign. Murray was also good in his third season, and he’s averaged more than 18 fantasy points per game since 2022.

Joe Burrow, Bengals (2021): Burrow posted decent numbers as a rookie, averaging 17.4 points per game before going down with a torn ACL. The LSU product busted out in the stat sheets the following year, scoring 314.2 points and finishing eighth in points. Unlike the other quarterbacks in this research, Burrow was even better in his third season with 350.7 points. Last season, he threw for 43 touchdown passes and scored 372.8 points.

Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (2022): Lawrence endured a dreadful rookie season, in part due to the mess that was Urban Meyer. He rebounded as an NFL sophomore, however, scoring 295.6 points. His points-per-game average jumped by nearly six points, too. Lawrence did take a step back last season, so Year 2 is still his best fantasy football season.

Brock Purdy, 49ers (2023): Purdy was sensational in Year 2, pushing his points-per-game average from 11.8 as a rookie to 18.5. He also finished sixth in fantasy points at quarterback, ahead of stars like Mahomes and Justin Herbert (to name just a few). He’s now a low-end QB1 heading into most 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Bryce Young, Panthers (2024): Young did have a great finish to his second season and improved on his rookie campaign, but he was still just 20th in points among quarterbacks. So, this year and 2016 are the lone seasons where this trend did not come to fruition.

What History Taught Us

Alright, so what can we learn from this trend and the players involved? For one, the jump in points as a sophomore from those who played as a rookie is around six per game. In fact, only Burrow saw a jump of fewer than 5.7 points. Jackson and Mahomes saw bigger leaps, but they didn’t start most of their rookie games (or any in the case of Mahomes).

The other trend we found is that among these quarterbacks, their second year has often been their best fantasy season. Bortles saw his points decline in each of the following four years, and Wentz was never able to recapture the magic he made as an NFL sophomore. The same holds true for Lawrence, whose points per game average keep dipping.

Fantasy Football Quarterback Breakout Candidates

Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix, who both busted out as rookies, will not be part of this trend for obvious reasons. The most obvious choices to outperform expectations or bust out this season are Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Michael Penix Jr. In fact, all three are on my sleeper/breakout list for quarterbacks. I’d be surprised if at least one, if not more, were top-15 players in 2025, and all three are being picked in the second half of most drafts.