College Football Week 7 Best Bets: Underdog Day Afternoon

I already gave out three best bets for Week 7, as I loaded up on the Pac-12. But after more research throughout the week, I have two home underdogs that I also think are strong plays. And both of these games kick off at noon EST (hence the headline, hope you all are also cinephiles!), so hopefully it'll be a good start to our Saturday. As always, SI Gambling will be using current odds from New Jersey sportsbooks (FanDuel, DraftKings, William Hill, PointsBet) for best bets every week.

No. 23 Memphis at Temple: Temple +5.5 (-110) at William Hill

I feel like I’ve already seen this game unfold before. In Week 3, Temple was a home underdog to Maryland team that was extremely reliant on explosive plays. The Owls allowed only three plays of at least 20 yards in that game, and pulled off the upset over the Terrapins. Temple has allowed 11 plays of at least 20 yards all season, which is tied for the second-fewest number in the country.

Memphis “only” ranks 31st in plays of 20 yards or more (30), but the Tigers are second in the country in plays of 40 yards (15), 50 yards (10) and 60 yards (6). So they’re certainly making their big plays count. The emerging star of the Memphis offense is redshirt freshman tailback Kenneth Gainwell, who has run for 458 yards and four touchdowns over the past three games. Two of those defenses faced, though, are abysmal against the run—in terms of yards per carry allowed, South Alabama ranks 96th and Louisiana-Monroe is 129th. The other was Navy, which is 17th, where Gainwell ran for 104 yards on 14 carries. One of those runs was for 75 yards, however. So the other 13 carries went for a meager 29 yards.

Temple ranks 30th in yards per carry allowed (3.16), and have allowed just three runs all season of at least 20 yards. The big name along Temple’s defensive line is tackle Ifeanyi Maijeh, who is tied for the conference lead in tackles for loss per game and sacks per game. If he can make life difficult for Gainwell and Memphis quarterback Brady White, that could go a long way against a Memphis offense that is already very boom-or-bust.

The Owls quietly have a freshman tailback making a big impact as well in Re’Mahn Davis. Davis is averaging 6.0 yards per carry on the season, and has racked up 351 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his past three games. He also has a more favorable matchup in this one compared to Gainwell, as the Memphis defense is tied for 65th in YPC allowed and has been giving up yardage in chunks on the ground, as opponents have 30 runs of at least 10 yards against the Tigers (Memphis is 93rd in that department). Temple also has a veteran quarterback in Anthony Russo and a nice stable of wideouts, but I think this is a game where Davis will shine.

If Memphis’s big-play offense can be slowed down, the Tigers are in trouble. With how good Temple has been at limiting big gains, this is not an ideal matchup for the ranked road favorite. I’ll gladly take the points with the home underdog here.

Mississippi State at Tennessee: Tennessee +7 (-110) at DraftKings

If you just look at the Georgia-Tennessee score, you’ll see a 43-14 blowout. But if you actually watched the game, you came away with some optimism about Tennessee’s offense moving forward. Backup quarterback Brian Maurer was given his first start of the season, and averaged 9.3 YPA (259 yards) and threw for two touchdowns versus one interception against a suffocating Georgia defense. Week 1 starter Jarrett Guarantano could only muster 6.3 YPA against BYU and Florida, and the offense was simply lacking explosiveness with him under center.

Mississippi State lost several impact defenders to the NFL, including three that were picked in the first round in safety Johnathan Abram along with defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Montez Sweat. The defense has also been dealing with suspensions due to the NCAA’s investigation into the Bulldogs’ athletic department. As a result, Mississippi State has gone from allowing 4.13 yards per play (best in the country) last season to surrendering 6.21 (tied for 104th in CFB) YPP so far in this campaign.

The Bulldogs still have one of the best tailbacks in the SEC in Kylin Hill, but losing record-setting dual-threat quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has hurt the junior’s efficiency in the backfield. One season after averaging 6.3 yards per carry, Hill is down to 5.5 YPC this season. Tennessee’s run defense may not look great on paper (4.08 YPC allowed, 69th in CFB) , but the Vols have caused their first two SEC opponents to run at a worse YPC than their season average: Georgia is third in CFB at 6.7 YPC however it slipped to 5.8 YPC against Tennessee, while Florida is averaging 4.3 YPC on the season but only could muster 3.5 YPC vs. Tennessee.

So you’re getting the better defense with the Tennessee, and while Mississippi State’s offense has the edge over Tennessee in terms of yards per play (6.05 vs. 5.48), I think Maurer taking over at quarterback and showing promise against Georgia could even out the difference between these two units. The Bulldogs don’t even have a clear-cut starting quarterback themselves, as they’ve been juggling Tommy Stevens and Garrett Shrader.

To me, a touchdown is quite a lot to lay with this Mississippi State team on the road with plenty of question marks. As disappointing as Tennessee has been, I think this is a strong spot to back the Volunteers.  

Season record: 16-10