UFC Fight Night Sao Paulo: Which Fighters Should You Bet on?

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jacare ufc betting preview

What’s up fight crew? We are back yet again as the UFC heads to Sao Paulo, Brazil for UFC on ESPN+ 22: Blachowicz vs Jacare. Not a stacked card, but hey, we got some more fights this weekend! The card will kick off at 5 p.m. EST and be broadcast on ESPN+ with 12 matches scheduled, which includes several of Brazil’s top fighters this go around. Let’s break down a couple fights we are looking at and select who we think will be victorious on Saturday.

SATURDAY 11/16/2019 AT 05:00 P.M. EST

BROADCAST: ESPN+

VENUE: Ibirapuera Gymnasium

LOCATION: Sao Paulo, Brazil

MATCHES: 12

THE CARD:

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS

#6 JAN BLACHOWICZ 24-8 (-165) VS #8 RONALDO SOUZA 26-7 (+145)

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205LBS

#14 MAURICIO RUA 26-11 (-280) VS PAUL CRAIG 12-4 (+240)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155LBS

#13 CHARLES OLIVEIRA 27-8 (-410) VS JARED GORDON 15-3 (+330)

MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS

ANTONIO ARROYO 9-2 (+100) VS ANDRE MUNIZ 18-4 (-120)

MIDDLEWEIGHT 185LBS

MARKUS PEREZ 11-2 (-115) VS WELLINGTON TURMAN 15-3 (-105)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

SERGIO MORAES 14-5-1 (+165) VS JAMES KRAUSE 26-7 (-190)

FEATHERWEIGHT 145

RICARDO RAMOS 13-2 (-350) VS EDUARDO GARAGORRI 13-0 (+290)

LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS

FRANCISCO TRINALDO 23-7 (-140) VS BOBBY GREEN 24-9-1 (+120)

WELTERWEIGHT 170LBS

WARLLEY ALVES 13-3 (-125) VS RANDY BROWN 11-3 (+105)

FEATHERWEIGHT 145LBS

DOUGLAS SILVA DE ANDRADE 25-3 (-260) VS RENAN BARAO 34-8 (+220)

WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT 125

ARIANE LIPSKI 11-5 (-115) VS VERONICA MACEDO 6-3-1(-105)

WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT 135LBS

VANESSA MELO 10-6 (+180) VS TRACY CORTEZ 6-1 (-220)

#6 JAN BLACHOWICZ 24-8 (-165) VS #8 RONALDO SOUZA 26-7 (+145)

Jan Blachowicz makes the trek to Brazil this Saturday to face one of the country’s best in Ronaldo Jacare Souza. Jan is getting some shine after his highlight reel finish of Luke Rockhold back in July, in a fight he actually looked to be losing until landing a game changing head kick near the end of round one. That shot considerably changed things as Rockhold came out in round two still not 100%, and eventually was finished just over a minute into the round. Souza is coming off a loss back in April from his matchup against Jack Hermansson, where Hermansson pushed the pace like crazy and dominated, landing a five-round unanimous decision. I don’t see Blachowicz staying as busy and rather looking to land bigger shots with less output. When looking at the data, Hermansson actually averages 5.13 SLpM where Blachowicz sits short at 3.54. This output difference and the fact that Souza has a much better chin than Rockhold is a big factor for me. Now, although Blachowicz has a 52% takedown accuracy, I’m not sure he wants to mess around with Souza on the mat because, as you know, “Jacare” can submit anyone at any time. Souza also will have a fired up Brazilian hometown crowd behind him, along with a better gas tank with the five scheduled rounds. I really like the value with him as a dog in this position and I’ll be taking a shot with the Brazilian to close out the night.

PREDICTION: RONALDO “JACARE” SOUZA +160

#14 MAURICIO RUA 26-11 (-280) VS PAUL CRAIG 12-4 (+240)

Shogun the legend is back after almost a year layoff, and he’ll welcome Scotland’s own Paul Craig to a place where he’s never been; that being a fight in Brazil, let alone a co-main event. Shogun is definitely on the downhill slope of his career, and has actually promised his wife he only has two more matches left. That said, when most guys are at this spot in their career, they aren’t going 4-1 in their last five like Shogun has. Shogun has looked great and hasn’t lost any of that killer instinct we remember from the Pride days. Now Paul Craig always puts on his game face (literally, see any weigh-in video), and actually isn’t bad in the octagon, but only until he gets hit. Shogun will hit him. Shogun is levels above this guy with the striking and will be the more technical, land cleaner shots and will push forward non-stop against this guy, causing some damage probably early on. Think about it, Craig is known for his ability to cause some issues for his opponents while he’s on his back, and he usually ends up there because his opponent has put him in the position. I just don’t see Shogun getting sucked in here. Craig also only has a 21% takedown accuracy and against a guy with this much experience, he’s going to have some issues getting this fight where he wants it, which is not standing in front of Shogun. Shogun throws and lands almost twice as Craig statistically, and the bright lights and Brazilian crowd in this spot ain’t going to help the cause. In 16 fights, win or lose, Paul Craig has never gone to a decision. Make it 17 fights after Saturday night.

PREDICTION: MAURICIO “SHOGUN” RUA VIA TKO/KO -130

**On Monday, I tweeted I took Francisco Trinaldo at -115, so that is included in a play to consider.

RONALDO SOUZA upsets JAN BLACHOWICZ

MAURICIO RUA defeats PAUL CRAIG via TKO/KO

CHARLES OLIVEIRA defeats JARED GORDON

ANDRE MUNIZ defeats ANTONIO ARROYO

WELLINGTON TURMAN upsets MARKUS PEREZ

JAMES KRAUSE defeats SERGIO MORAES

RICARDO RAMOS defeats EDUARDO GARAGORRI

FRANCISCO TRINALDO defeats BOBBY GREEN

RANDY BROWN upsets WARLLEY ALVES

DOUGLAS SILVA DE ANDRADE defeats RENAN BARAO

ARIANE LIPSKI defeats VERONICA MACEDO

TRACY CORTEZ defeats VANESSA MELO

Official plays posted on SI:

Main Events: 5-0

Overall: 12-6