No. 6 Minnesota (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) at No. 1 San Francisco (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS)
Moneyline: Minnesota (+260) | San Francisco: (-330)
Spread: MIN: +7 (-120) | SF: -7 (+100)
Total: 44– Over: (-110) | Under: 44 (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: MIN: 49% | SF: 51%
Game Info: January 11th, 2020 4:35 p.m. ET / 1:35 p.m. PT | NBC
The sharps stepped out on their first play of Divisional weekend late Wednesday night in Vegas. The line for Saturday’s game dropped from its opening of San Francisco as 7-point home favorites down to 6.5-points late Sunday night. However, since that initial move, the line began a steady climb back to the initial number of a full touchdown. According to the "Whispers" out in Vegas, the sharps are laying the points and backing a rested San Francisco team that earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
Minnesota (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS), who is 4-1 ATS its last five games, enters the Divisional round fresh off the biggest upset of the NFL playoffs thus far, shocking the New Orleans Saints in overtime 26-20 as 7.5-point road underdogs. San Francisco (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) will be looking to earn a berth in the NFC Championship game behind one of the best defenses in the NFL that led the league in pass defense (169.2 yards allowed per game) and ranked second in total defense (281.8). San Francisco has dominated Minnesota, winning nine of the last 10 meetings played on its home turf. San Francisco is preparing to play in its first playoff game in six years, and its first-ever at Levi's Stadium.
The sharps believe that although the Vikings may not be satisfied with just one win in the playoffs, they will not pull another shocking upset in Santa Clara. Minnesota also could be extremely short-handed as we learned Wednesday afternoon that the status of both Vikings starting wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs could be in doubt after popping up on the injury report. Diggs missed his second straight practice with an illness on Wednesday, with Thielen apparently suffering an ankle injury during Wednesday's practice. The more concerning of the two is obviously the status of Thielen, who broke out with a monster performance against the Saints after dealing with a hamstring injury for the last couple months. We all saw how different the Vikings offense operated without a healthy Thielen on the field during the regular season. The sharps will be looking to buck a strong historical trend that has shown playoff favorites of seven or more are a mere 24-36 ATS (40%) since 2003.
The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 20-6-1 ATS (77%) run on all football plays. The betting plays, supplied only to Sports Illustrated, nailed both Tennessee (+5) and Seattle (-1.5) in the Wild Card round. Over the last two months, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering.
The sharps like the home favorite here and are betting that the 49ers will be able to cover the full-touchdown spread.
The Play: San Francisco -7 (EVEN)
- Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall
- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games
- Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 vs. NFC foes
- Minnesota is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog
- Minnesota is 5-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- San Francisco is 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record
- San Francisco is 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a home favorite
- The underdog is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings between the clubs
- The home team is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings between these NFC foes
NFL Season Record: 8-6-1