Super Bowl LIV Prop Bet Info You Need to Know
The atmosphere was electric Thursday night at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas as bettors lined up for hours looking to wager on Super Bowl LIV props. As the preeminent sportsbook in the country, the SuperBook is the first to release its full set of props, setting the market for all other sportsbooks to follow in the coming days. The sharp action from this night will help set the market price for many of the most popular prop bets.
"We want these wagers made tonight to win," says John Murray, the Director of Race & Sports at the SuperBook. "The wagers from the public that will come rolling in the days leading up to Super Bowl LIV will overpower the ones made by the sharps tonight.”
In order to give all bettors, both sharp and square, a fair chance to wager on opening numbers, the SuperBook only allowed two wagers per customer at a maximum of $2,000. After making two wagers, every customer had to return to the back of the line if they wanted to place more.
“The economy right now is fantastic, Murray said. "With early wagering so strong on the over (54.5), I definitely think this year’s prop handle could be record-setting."
In conjunction with an overwhelming amount of bets (93% of money) on the game's over (54.5) and the desire of the public to play the 'over' on prop wagers, SuperBook is expecting "Super Bowl LIV's prop wagering to account for between 60-65% of the total handle on the game," according to Murray.
Murray also gave out a piece of advice, astutely pointing out that “bettors need to pace themselves and let the markets adjust and often you will find value with a better number.”
Let’s review the player props that drew the most serious attention.
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco
Rush Yards: 80.5 / Rush Attempts: 17.5 / Receptions: 2.5 / Rec Yards: 20.5
Score a TD: Yes: -200 / No: +170
Mostert, who had a record-setting NFC Championship performance, attracted significant action from sharps, forcing the SuperBook to adjust his number down to 75.5 total rushing yards within 30 minutes.
“We probably set his number a little high," Murray said. "However, we will receive so much public support on the over for Mostert we are comfortable with the higher opening."
As the night went on, bettors also aggressively played the under on both his receiving yards and receptions, forcing the SuperBook to adjust his receptions total down to 2 and his receiving yards total down to 16.5.
“One of the most popular bets this year will easily be Mostert to score a touchdown after his four-touchdown performance against Green Bay,” Murray added.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City
Pass Yards: 308.5 / Attempts: 38.5 / Completions: 25.5 / Rush Yards: 30.5
Passing TDs: Over (2) -150 / Under (2) +130
The prop involving star quarterback Patrick Mahomes that drew the sharpest action was his total rushing yards. It appears the sharps envision the 49ers pass rush forcing Mahomes to move out of the pocket and scramble often in Super Bowl LIV. After seeing significant action supporting the over, the SuperBook moved his number up several yards to 32.5 in the first 45 minutes of wagering.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco
Rec Yards: 73.5 / Receptions: 5.5
Score a TD: Yes: +140 / No: -160
The star tight end, who has been nursing an ankle injury, was non-existent in the NFC Championship Game. He had just one catch for 19 yards. History has shown us that star players coming into the Super Bowl can often burn prop bettors (see: Todd Gurley).
“The public will come in strong on Kittle. If we start to see sharps we respect come in and begin hammering him under, then that will raise red flags," Murray said. "We deal with that on a daily basis with star NBA players. It will definitely be something we monitor as kickoff approaches.”
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City
Rush Yards: 50.5 / Rush Attempts: 13.5 / Receptions: 4.5 / Rec Yards: 29.5
Score a TD: Yes: -130 / No: +110
Williams, who has rushed for 92 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs' two playoff games, drew plenty of sharp attention. After seeing significant wagers backing another strong game from Williams on the ground, the SuperBook adjusted his rushing total up to 52.5 yards.
Williams, who had five receptions for 44 yards in the AFC Championship Game against Tennessee, also drew action on his reception total. Although, the bets came in strong on fading another five-catch effort, the SuperBook didn’t move his total but instead chose to adjust the juice to -150 for those who take the under on his 4.5 receptions.
Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City
Rec Yards: 26.5 / Receptions: 1.5
Score a TD: Yes: +300 / No: -400
The rookie wideout, who has one or fewer receptions in six of his last seven games, drew the attention of the sharps immediately. The wagers piled in fading both his receptions and receiving yards. Within minutes, the SuperBook adjusted his receiving yards down to 21.5 and the juice on his receptions from -130 to the over to -150 to the under.
Here are some of the other major players and their respective prop numbers for Super Bowl LIV:
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco
Pass Yards: 239.5 / Attempts: 29.5 / Completions: 19.5 / Rush Yards: 3.5
Passing TDs: Over (1.5) -120 / Under (1.5) +100
Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco
Rec Yards: 54.5 / Receptions: 4.5
Score a TD: Yes: +140 / No: -160
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, San Francisco
Rec Yards: 41.5 / Receptions: 2.5
Score a TD: Yes: +240 / No: -300
Kendrick Bourne, WR, San Francisco
Rec Yards: 27.5 / Receptions: 2.5
Score a TD: Yes: +180 / No: -220
Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City
Rec Yards: 73.5 / Receptions: 5.5 / Rush Yards: 5.5
Score a TD: Yes: +100 / No: -120
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City
Rec Yards: 75.5 / Receptions: 6.5
Score a TD: Yes: +120 / No: -140
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City
Rec Yards: 47.5 / Receptions: 3.5
Score a TD: Yes: +300 / No: -400
DeMarcus Robinson, WR, Kansas City
Rec Yards: 26.5 / Receptions: 1.5
Score a TD: Yes: +350 / No: -450
Matchup Props:
More Completions:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patrick Mahomes (-6.5)
More Touchdown Passes:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patrick Mahomes (-0.5)
More Passing Yards:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patrick Mahomes (-69.5)
More Rushing Yards:
Jimmy Garoppolo
Patrick Mahomes (-20.5)
Who Will Throw TD Pass First:
Jimmy Garoppolo (+150)
Patrick Mahomes (-180)
Who Will Throw INT First:
Jimmy Garoppolo (-190)
Patrick Mahomes (+160)
More Rushing Yards:
Raheem Mostert (-28.5)
Damien Williams
More Receiving Yards:
George Kittle
Tyreek Hill (-1.5)
More Receiving Yards:
George Kittle
Travis Kelce (-1.5)
More Receiving Yards:
Deebo Samuel (-6.5)
Sammy Watkins
This year, the SuperBook added several new props to its immense offering. There is one catch with these wagers, though. Bettors will need to wait until September 27 to cash their ticket. Why? It ties various Super Bowl markets to the 2020 Major League Baseball season:
Who Will Have More?
San Francisco Giants 2020 Regular Season Wins (-15.5)
San Francisco 49ers Penalty Yards
Who Will Have More?
Kansas City Royals 2020 Regular Season Wins
Kansas City Chiefs Rushing Yards (-24.5)
Who Will Have More?
New York Yankees 2020 Regular Season Wins
Total Yardage of All Touchdowns in SB LIV (-1.5)
Who Will Have More?
Mike Trout 2020 Regular Season HRs
Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts (-1.5)
Who Will Have More?
Gerrit Cole 2020 Regular Season Wins
Jimmy Garoppolo Completions (-3.5)
The sharp information out in Vegas supplied only to Sports Illustrated continued to stay-red nailing both their wagers in the AFC and NFC Championship games. The information is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the NFL playoffs.
Over the last two months, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, is currently on an amazing 24-7-1 ATS (77%) run on all football plays. Be sure to see who they are backing in Super Bowl LIV as well as the prop wagers they eventually target in the days leading up to the Big Game.
SuperBook's Full Prop Packet
(Be sure to hit the "-" button for best view)
More From SI Gambling:
- The Vibrant (and Still Illegal) Sports Gambling Scene That Exists Behind Bars
- Super Bowl LIV MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes the Clear Favorite
- Where the Early Money Is Coming in for Super Bowl LIV Bets
