NFL Week 11 - Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team
Editor's Note - Odds are subject to change.
NFL Best Bets for Week 11
Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.
The "Vegas Whispers" sharp information is currently 50-41 ATS in the NFL in 2020, and 186-128-2 overall.
Graphic by Bryce Wood
Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+8) | TOTAL: 56.5
The Raiders are responsible for the Chiefs’ lone loss of the season, and it came at Arrowhead Stadium back in Week 5. That win was the first for the Raiders in Kansas City since 2012, leading to a reported “victory lap” on the team bus around 1 Arrowhead Drive afterwards.
Here we are six weeks later and the 6-3 Raiders find themselves as 8-point home dogs vs these same Chiefs. The game opened up with Kansas City still 6.5-point favorites on the road, so the move to 8 is likely indicative of the report that several members of the Raiders defense are currently on the COVID-19 list.
There’s no lack of motivation in this game for Kansas City. A loss to the Raiders gives Vegas the tiebreaker in the AFC West and puts them just one game out of first place. The Chiefs have a point differential of +103 this year, compared to just +14 for Vegas.
I liked the Chiefs to embarrass the Raiders before the bulk of their defense went on the COVID list. Now I like them even more, and would jump on -8 before it continues to climb.
BEST BET: Chiefs -8 (now down to -7)
Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (+3.5) | TOTAL: 45
The Miami Dolphins (6-3 SU; 7-2 ATS) are one of the hottest teams in the NFL winning five consecutive games both SU and ATS. The AFC East surging Dolphins are on a roll and rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa has played within the system and is displaying superb decision making which is letting the underrated Miami defense dominate.
Following the news that QB Drew Lock came out of last week’s 37-12 loss to Raiders with a core muscle injury makes this one an easy play in Week 11. Expect Miami to win this one going away on Sunday. Lay the points with the road favorites.
BEST BET: Dolphins -3.5
Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-4 ) | TOTAL: 51.5
The New Orleans Saints are on a six-game winning streak, this week they host their arch-rival Atlanta Falcons, the Falcons have quietly won three of their last four games. It should be a four game winning streak but Todd Gurley accidentally fell in the end zone vs the Lions a few weeks back.
Atlanta has played well since Raheem Morris has taken over as the interim head coach, and the Saints will be without Drew Brees. I like Atlanta who is 3-1 ATS on the road this season to go into NOLA and cover the number.
BEST BET: Falcons +4 (now down to +3.5)
Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (+3.5) | TOTAL: 45
This spread seems like Las Vegas is dying for us to take the Dolphins, right? They’re 3-0 with Tua Tagovailoa under center, the defense is playing well and the Broncos are, well, not all that good. Plus, Denver quarterback Drew Lock will be at less than 100 percent.
Well, Vegas got what they wanted because I’m buying into Miami; even if the line looks far too good to be true. While I could see a late Broncos score to put them within the number, I’m still swimming with the fishes this week.
BEST BET: Dolphins -3.5
Bill Enright (@BillEnright)
New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+2) | TOTAL: 48.5
New England is starting to gain some momentum thanks to their second consecutive win, which came via an impressive performance over the Ravens in Week 10. The Patriots rushed for 159 yards in Week 9 and 173 in Week 10. Their ground game will give them a big edge over the Texans defense which has allowed a league high 1,507 yards this season.
Look for Cam Newton and his versatile running backs including Damien Harris (over 100 yards in two of his last three games) to control the clock and keep Deshaun Watson off the field.
BEST BET: Patriots -2 (-110)
Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3) | TOTAL: 47.5
On the road for a second straight week, Carson Wentz and the Eagles (3-5-1) head to Cleveland following a 27-17 loss to the Giants in New York. Fresh off a bye, plus healthier than they’ve been all season, Philadelphia played worse than they did before a week of rest. Baker Mayfield and the Browns (6-3) are playing a third straight home game at FirstEnergy Stadium. Cleveland allowed 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and lost 16-6 to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 9. The Browns defeated the Houston Texans 10-7 last week.
The return of Nick Chubb was huge for the Browns offense last week. Chubb gained 126 yards on 19 carries and scored once. He should have scored twice but purposely stepped out of bounds at the one-yard line after a 59-yard run with no defenders in sight. Kareem Hunt racked up 132 total yards and the two-headed monster is back in Cleveland. Philadelphia has not allowed a 100-yard rusher this season but they gave up 151 total rushing yards and three touchdowns last week. Cleveland and UNDER is an attractive parlay option.
Cleveland is a -3 point favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Browns to cover the spread.
BEST BET: Browns -3
Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (-3)
The Eagles are the team everyone loves to hate. When you think they’ll cruise they lose and then you think they’ll mail it in they win. They have the rush defense to slow down the Browns main offensive attack and are getting healthier on offense. This is a spot for them to cruise to a road win while the public forgets about them.
Fly Eagles Fly.
BEST BET: Eagles +3
Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (-2) | TOTAL: 51
BEST BET: Packers +2 (now down to +1.5)
Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)
Miami Dolphins -3.5 @ Denver Broncos
Talk about two teams headed in completely different directions.
It's hot in Miami and the Dolphins are on fire riding a five game winning streak. Denver is only 1-3 at home this year and they're facing a QB in Tua who can become the first rookie quarterback since Ben Roethlisberger to win their first four starts.
BEST BET: Dolphins -3.5
Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)
Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts -2 | TOTAL: 51
Indy isn’t just all about their top-tier defense as their passing game has shown some improvement as well. Dare we say Phillip Rivers outperforms Aaron Rodgers come this Sunday in a battle between two teams both leading their divisions?
The Colts ranked 21st in pass success last year, and currently sit 13th this season after rattling off a respectable win at Tennessee in their last outing 34-17. Davante Adams, Robert Tonyan, and Allen Lazard are all banged up and either questionable or probable to take the field Sunday for the Packers. On the other side of the ball, the Pack rank just 30th in the league in takeaways which will assist Rivers and crew in covering a field goal at home.
BEST BET: Colts -2 (now down to -1.5)
Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders (+8) | TOTAL: 56.5
You’re playing with fire when it comes to the COVID list, but as of Friday morning the Chiefs had their offensive linemen back while the Raiders were still without a handful of defensive contributors. Aside from that, it feels like a literal impossibility that anyone in the AFC West would sweep the Reid-Mahomes Chiefs—Kansas City is 29-4 against division opponents since 2015 (and three of those losses were in the final minute of a Thursday night game). On Sundays against the AFC West, that record is 23-1 with an average point differential of +13.2 during that span.
As for the road factor, since the start of last season K.C. is 12-1 straight-up and 10-3 against the spread vs. all opponents away from Arrowhead—10 of those wins came by a touchdown or more. And while I don’t put much stock into that whole “Raiders victory lap at Arrowhead” narrative, it does seem like the Chiefs will run up the score if they have the opportunity, which they probably will.
BEST BET: Chiefs -8
Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)
Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos (-3.5) | TOTAL: 45
BEST BET: Dolphins -3.5
| NAME | PICK | RECORD |
|---|---|---|
BEN HEISLER | CHIEFS -8 | 6-4 |
FRANKIE TADDEO | DOLPHINS -3.5 | 6-4 |
COREY PARSON | FALCONS +4 | 3-6 |
MICHAEL FABIANO | DOLPHINS -3.5 | 6-4 |
BILL ENRIGHT | PATRIOTS -2 | 3-7 |
ROY LARKING | BROWNS -3 | 6-4 |
STEVE RENNER | EAGLES +3 | 5-5 |
IAN RITCHIE | PACKERS +2 | 4-6 |
SCOTT ATKINS | DOLPHINS -3.5 | 5-4-1 |
CASEY OLSON | COLTS -2 | 5-4-1 |
GARY GRAMLING | CHIEFS -8 | 4-6 |
MITCH GOLDICH | DOLPHINS -3.5 | 6-4 |
LAST WEEK'S RECORD (ATS): 6-5-1 | COLLECTIVE RECORD (ATS): 66-59-2 |
