NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Slate Betting Breakdown

SI Gambling Insider Frankie Taddeo takes a look at the odds for all of the Thanksgiving NFL action.
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After crushing the sportsbooks through the first 11 weeks of Thursday Night Football, the Vegas Whispers sharps will now look to improve upon their amazing 12-1 wagering record on the mid-week highlighted game by focusing on the biggest tradition in the sport - Thanksgiving Day! 

The action will kick off from Ford Field when the Houston Texans (3-7 SU; 3-7 ATS) travel to Motown to take on the Detroit Lions (4-6 SU; 4-6 ATS). The Texans are currently 3-point road favorites with a total sitting on the game at 51 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions

Moneyline: Houston (-162) | Detroit (+143)

Spread: HOU -3 (-104) | DET +3 (-118)

Total: 51.5 Over: (-110) | Under: 51.5 (-110)

Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan

Game Info: Thursday November 26, 2020 12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT | CBS

On the offensive side for Houston, fantasy managers will look to get QB Deshaun Watson, and WRs Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks into their starting lineups. Watson has been quietly solid in 2020; ranking just outside the top-five quarterbacks in fantasy football with a 20/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Expect the Texans to lean on Watson who has multiple touchdown passes in seven of 10 games while throwing for 300-plus yards in five of his last seven. 

Currently DraftKings Sportsbook has Watson’s passing yards set at 300.5 and his touchdown passes set at 2.5 heavily juiced to -200 to the under. I would look at his rushing yards market where it currently stands at 31.5 (-125), a number he surpassed in four straight games due to the lack of a strong running game.

On the Detroit side, fantasy owners will find it risky to trust any position player in their starting lineups due to a plethora of injuries. Matthew Stafford clearly struggled last week against Carolina, due to a thumb injury, throwing for a paltry 178 yards and no touchdowns for the first time this season. It still remains to be seen if RB D’Andre Swift and WRs Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola will be able to suit up on the short week.

According to my Vegas sources, nearly 88 percent of all wagers to come in on the game have come in support of Houston. The line, which opened at 1.5-points in favor of the Lions on Sunday at DraftKings, has steamed to Houston (-3) as a full field goal favorite. The total which opened in Vegas at 51 has held mostly steady and currently stands at 51.5.

The Lions will be looking to rebound from a 20-0 road loss to the Panthers last week, while the Texans will be looking to build off the momentum of their upset victory over the New England Patriots. The Texans, who are 2-0 ATS in their last two games, will be looking to stay hot against a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most points (28.7) per game in 2020. The Lions will try to turn things around as they are currently on a 1-3 SU and ATS streak over their last four games.

The action then moves to AT&T Stadium when the Washington Football Team (3-7 SU; 5-5 ATS) takes on the Dallas Cowboys (3-7 SU; 2-8 ATS). The Cowboys are currently 3-point home favorites with a total sitting on the game at 46 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys

Moneyline: Washington (+130) | Dallas (-148)

Spread: WSH +3 (-118) | DAL -3 (-104)

Total: 46 Over: (-110) | Under:46 (-110)

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Game Info: Thursday November 26, 2020 4:30pm ET / 1:30pm PT | FOX

For Washington, QB Alex Smith, RBs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic and WR Terry McLaurin remain solid fantasy starts this week. This is an absolutely dream matchup for Smith against a Cowboys defense that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 2-plus touchdown passes in eight of 10 games this season. 

Currently, DraftKings Sportsbook has Smith’s passing yards set at 243.5 and his and his touchdown passes set at 1.5 juiced to -125 to the under. I would look for Smith to throw for multiple touchdown passes for the first time in 2020.

As for Dallas, RB Ezekiel Elliott, and WRs CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper remain fantasy relevant. I would temper all expectations for all those looking for QB Andy Dalton to have the success he had last week against the Vikings when threw three touchdown passes. Washington has quietly only allowed one opposing signal caller to throw for 300 yards (Jared Goff; 309; Week 5) all season. 

Dalton will certainly be motivated to play against a Washington defense that knocked him out of the game back in Week 7 after suffering a concussion that caused him to miss two additional games. 

Currently, DraftKings Sportsbook has Dalton’s passing yards set at 249.5 and his and his touchdown passes set at 1.5 juiced to -115 to the over.

According to my Vegas sources, nearly 62 percent of all wagers to come in on the contest have come in support of Dallas. The line, which opened at 1-point in favor of Dallas early Sunday morning in Vegas, has steamed up to Dallas as a full 3-point home favorite against a division rival they lost to 25-3 in DC back in Week 7. The total which opened in Vegas at 48 has seen strong steam to the under and currently stands at 46.

The Washington Football team will be looking to build off a 20-9 home win over the Bengals last week, while the Cowboys will be looking for their third consecutive ATS cash for their backers. Washington, who is 2-3 SU, but 3-2 ATS over their last five games have lost those three games by a total of only seven points. The Cowboys will try to extend their ATS winning streak to three games after starting the 2020 campaign going 0-8 ATS.

The action will conclude in the nightcap at Heinz Field when the Baltimore Ravens (6-4 SU; 4-6 ATS) take on the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers (10-0 SU; 8-2 ATS). The Steelers are currently 4.5-point home favorites with a total sitting on the game at 45 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

UPDATE: The Ravens and Steelers matchup has been POSTPONED due to COVID-19. The game is currently scheduled to be made up on Sunday.

FULL DETAILS ON THE POSTPONEMENT

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Moneyline: Baltimore (+180) | Pittsburgh (-205)

Spread: BAL +4.5 (-110) | PIT -4.5 (-110)

Total: 45 Over: (-110) | Under: 45 (-110)

Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Game Info: Thursday November 26, 2020 8:20pm ET / 5:20pm PT | NBC

The Ravens will be extremely short-handed in their offensive backfield after learning that running backs Mark Engram and J.K. Dobbins would be ruled out due to COVID-19. That means that the primary work for carries in the Baltimore backfield will fall upon Gus Edwards and add more pressure upon the shoulders of QB Lamar Jackson.

On the Pittsburgh side, QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB James Conner and WRs Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool all should be in fantasy starting lineups. The Steelers are absolutely rolling on both sides of the ball, but it is their offense led by a dominant passing game that has led the way to a 10-0 record. The dangerous passing attack is being led by Johnson who leads the club in targets (81) and Claypool who leads the team in yards (559) and total touchdowns (10). 

Veteran JuJu Smith-Schuster who seemed like the odd man out for targets has seen a resurgence of production from Week 7 through 10 with 13-plus PPR fantasy points. However, last week Smith-Schuster was forced to leave the win over Jacksonville (4 receptions, 19 yards) after suffering a foot injury. All fantasy owners should pay close attention to the inactives prior to kickoff.

According to my Vegas sources, nearly 87 percent of all wagers to come in on the contest have come in support of Pittsburgh. The line, which opened with Pittsburgh as 2.5-point home favorites, has steamed through the prime number of three and up to Baltimore as 4.5-point underdogs . The total which opened in Vegas at 46 has witnessed strong steam to the under and currently stands at 45.

The Ravens will be looking to rebound from a 30-24 OT home loss to the Titans last week, while the Steelers will be looking to remain as the NFL’s only unbeaten team. The Ravens, who are 4-1 SU are just 2-3 ATS on the road thus far in 2020, and will be looking to improve upon their 1-4 ATS streak over their last five games overall. The Steelers, who sport a league best 8-2 ATS record, will look to repeat their 28-24 victory over their division rival back in Week 8 as 4-point road underdogs.

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Over the entire 2019 NFL postseason the Vegas Whispers sharps absolutely crushed the sportsbooks going 7-0 ATS and the information is currently 51-41-2 in 2020 on released NFL Plays. On Thursday Night, the sharps are 12-2 ATS in their plays shared here at Sports Illustrated. The information straight from Frankie Taddeo, Sports Illustrated’s Gambling Vegas Insider, finished the 2020 Major League Baseball (MLB) at 79-60-0 +16.66 units and is currently 19-17 ATS on NCAA College Football for all SI PRO members.

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