NFL Betting: Breaking Down Atlanta Falcons' 2020 Win Total

Howard Balzer and Jaime Eisner break down whether or not the Atlanta Falcons have a shot at hitting their win total in a tough NFC South.

When you think about the Atlanta Falcons in recent years, you think about Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. One of the top QB-WR duos in the league are well-known for their big-time production. Ryan has 4,000 or more passing yards in each of his last nine seasons. Since entering the league in 2010, nobody has more than Jones’ 12,125 receiving yards. Free agent acquisition Todd Gurley should be excellent, assuming he can stay healthy.

However, last year proved this team needs more than just Ryan, Jones and the rest of the Falcons’ high-flying offense to win as the Falcons finished with a 7-9 record. 2020 won’t get any easier with the Saints looking dominant, Carolina hitting the reset button and some guy named Tom Brady joining Tampa Bay.

William Hill lists Atlanta’s over/under at 7.5 wins with -120 juice on the over.

Since the end of the 2019 season, the Falcons have parted ways with Desmond Trufant, Devonta Freeman, Vic Beasley, Austin Hooper, De’Vondre Campbell and Ty Sambrailo. They added Dante Fowler Jr., Hayden Hurst, Sharrod Neasman, Laquon Treadwell, Justin McCray and extended Tyeler Davison and Blidi Wreh-Wilson. With early draft picks spent on A.J. Terrell out of Clemson and Marlon Davison from Auburn, Atlanta is retooling their whole team. They still have plenty of questions to answer post-draft:

"Yes, the Falcons drafted Terrell, but that was considered a reach by some, and there are questions on how well he will be able to adjust to the NFL game. That leaves Isaiah Oliver and Kendall Sheffield as the top options if Terrell struggles with the transition. Hawkins started his college career at cornerback before moving to safety. He could be an option in nickel situations, but not long term."

The Falcons only have two winning seasons in the last eight years (2016 & 2017). They also have a brutal road schedule (TB, NO, CAR, MIN, LAC, KC, GB, DAL). I’ll happily take UNDER 7.5 wins with +100 juice.

Stats to Know

• Atlanta’s WRs led the NFL catches (273) and targets (409) while ranking third in wide receiving yards (3,389).
• The Falcons tied for 29th in the league in rushing attempts (362) with their longest run being 28 yards (29th).
• Despite their success passing the ball (second in receiving yards), Atlanta gained over 40 yards on just five of their league-high 459 completions (barely over one percent of the time).
• Julio Jones extended his streak with over 1,375 receiving yards to six years.
• K Younghoe Koo made 23 field goals on 26 attempts while only playing in eight games. The NFL record for field goals in a season is 44 (David Akers in 2011).