2026 Texas Children’s Houston Open Betting Models, Picks: A Bomber’s Paradise Awaits

The PGA Tour makes its move from Florida to Texas as we head to Memorial Park for the 2026 Texas Children’s Houston Open. With just two weeks until the Masters, everyone is looking to move into the field and the opportunity widened for that with Scottie Scheffler withdrawing Tuesday.

Memorial Park, which was originally opened as a 9-hole course in 1912 but was renovated and redesigned in 1936 and then again in 1995. The result is a long par-70 tract that measures 7,475 yards on the scorecard, and we can see the length in the winners since the Houston Open returned to Memorial Park in 2021. While every player, including last year’s winner, Min Woo Lee, have complete games, they are also all long off the tee.

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Ability and length with the driver are just part of the equation this week, but it matters more at Memorial Park than many other PGA Tour stops. What else matters, though? Let’s dive into this week’s model with a first look at the most important stats before we then venture into our Houston Open picks this week.

Key Stats for Memorial Park

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

Even when we’re talking about a place where bombers can thrive, Memorial Park still has some demanding approach play that’s required, especially with tough green complexes that can make getting up-and-down a bit tricky. So we’re still making approach play a priority this week.

Brooks Koepka (+1.154)
Shane Lowry (1.066)
Ryan Gerard (0.809)
Adam Scott (0.792)
Trey Mullinax (0.772)

Strokes-gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds

But as we said, this is a big-time driver’s golf course and there’s plenty of space to take advantage of. Driving distance matters, but we also want to see players who are gaining relative to the field too, which is why strokes-gained off the tee is also baked in quite meaningfully.

Marco Penge (+0.862)
Gary Woodland (0.690)
Jimmy Stanger (0.686)
Michael Brennan (0.667)
Min Woo Lee (0.644)

Bogey avoidance in the last 24 rounds

It’s not necessarily a birdie fest at the Houston Open, but there are relatively low scores. What’s more important, though, is avoiding the bigger numbers and squares on the scorecard. So we’re valuing players who have been thriving in that regard.

Cole Hammer
Kurt Kitayama
Bronson Burgoon
Rickie Fowler
Patrick Fishburn

Proximity from 200-225 yards in the last 24 rounds

Once again focusing on the length at Memorial Park, that sets up plenty of long approaches that players will need to attack—sometime even if they are still long off the tee—which is why we have this 200+ range and proximity to the hole on approaches from that distance in our crosshairs.

Chandler Blanchet
Shane Lowry
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
Dylan Wu
Adrien Dumont de Chassart

Houston Open model rankings this week

For this week, there is a lot of emphasis in the model on ball-striking, but we have much more to consider as well. We start with our weekly dose of strokes-gained approach (15%) followed by a healthy blend of strokes-gained off the tee, bogey avoidance, proximity from 200-225 yards and driving distance (10%). We then look for some more scoring with birdie-or-better gained percentage (9%) before our final mix of strokes-gained around the Green, strokes-gained putting on Bermuda, strokes-gained par-5s, scrambling, strokes-gained putting on fast greens, and strokes-gained Memorial Park (5% each) and rounding it out with comp courses at Bay Hill, Quail Hollow and TPC San Antonio (2% each). Here’s what we get for our Top 10 with those numbers running through the model.

Adam Scott
Brooks Koepka
Jake Knapp
Nicolai Hojgaard
Min Woo Lee
Chris Gotterup
Ryan Fox
Rickie Fowler
Keith Mitchell
Rasmus Hojgaard

2026 Houston Open picks

Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

Maybe not all that quietly, Brooks Koepka is starting to creep around the leaderboard pretty consistently, reeling off three straight top-20 finishes coming into this week. More importantly, I love the way the metrics are shaking out for him coming into Memorial Park.

Koepka not only leads the field in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds, but he’s positive in strokes-gained off the tee and around the green, while also coming in at a more than good enough 38th in driving distance and 15th in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda and seventh in proximity from 200-225 yards away. It seems like his return to the PGA Tour has him fully rounding into form and, while his M.O. was long that he wouldn’t win this type of event, he actually needs some momentum amidst his departure from LIV.

Everything is trending the right way for Koepka coming into the Houston Open, and if there was ever a time for him to break back through with a win, it seems like it might be this week.

Keith Mitchell +4500 (BetMGM)

I got excited about Keith Mitchell after the WM Phoenix Open and then at the Cognizant when he gained strokes putting in two out of three weeks. He hasn’t made good on that, especially with finishes of T33 and T46 the past two weeks. But I still like what I’m seeing enough and the fit to think he has a shot in Houston.

Mitchell looks a lot like you’d expect him too over the last 24 rounds, ranking top 20 in strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained approach, while his short game has been decidedly average. Having said that, we’ve seen those flashes with the putter recently, and he’s also a prime candidate to show up on the leaderboard in a ball-striking test, which Memorial Park presents. And if you catch a good putting week with that, it could be absolute money.

On top of his form, Mitchell also has strong recent history in Texas, finishing T18 in Houston and T12 at Valero last season. With all that coming together, I like the look of his profile this week.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju +9400 (DraftKings)

One of the more fun stories on the PGA Tour this season, you have to applaud the performance from Sudarshan Yellamaraju so far, especially after rocketing up the leaderboard to a T5 finish at the Players. But his form also indicates he might not be done impressing us.

Yellamaraju ranks 18th in strokes-gained off the tee, 19th in strokes-gained approach, 16th in bogey avoidances, 23rd in scrambling, 30th in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda, and 10th in birdie-or-better percentage gained over the last 24 rounds. He’s been passing most of the complete test, and even his scrambling numbers somewhat mitigate him being paltry in strokes-gained around the green.

Now, obviously, it’d be a heck of a run for the 24-year-old to continue his recent surge with his first career victory. But crazier things have happened, and the form lines up nicely for him to continue making noise, perhaps as nearly a 100-to-1 winner.

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