2026 Truist Championship Betting Models, Picks: Quail Hollow Demands More Than Just Distance

Our expert has picked winners the last two weeks and goes for three in a row at the signature event.

Ludvig Aberg | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Heading for Charlotte and Quail Hollow as the PGA Tour brings the Truist Championship back to its normal home this year feels quite good after hitting back-to-back winners on Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage and now Cameron Young at the Cadillac Championship (I’m still refusing to acknowledge the Zurich’s existence). And now we have a familiar course that we’re about to see again—and doing so with Scottie Scheffler not in the field, but Rory McIlroy making his first start since the Masters win (at a place he’s dominated, no less). 

Quail Hollow is a George Cobb design, though it has been modified and redesigned by Arnold Palmer and Tom Fazio over the years. It opened in 1959 and has been a regular host on the PGA Tour since 2003, but also hosted last year’s PGA Championship, in addition to the 2017 iteration, and the 2022 Presidents Cup. The par-71 layout measures a demanding 7,583 yards on the scorecard, highlighted by the brutal stretch known as the Green Mile, holes No. 16–18. And while it’s a long test, distance isn’t the only thing that matters at this course. 

It’s still a ball-striking test at its core, and that’s what we’ll be examining in our model for the 2026 Truist Championship before making our picks this week. Let’s dive into the numbers and see what they feed us. 

Key Stats for Quail Hollow

Strokes-gained tee-to-green over last 24 rounds

Approach play actually doesn’t lead the way (don’t worry, it’s still coming), but we’re looking more at the overall tee-to-green play. You need to be dialed in every facet before holding the putter at Quail Hollow if you want to contend.

1. Rory McIlroy (+2.044)
2. Cameron Young (2.022)
3. Alex Fitzpatrick (1.950)
4. Matt Fitzpatrick (1.776)
5. Ludvig Åberg (1.656)

Strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds

Told you we’d be getting to the approach play. The areas around the greens at Quail can be quite a test for players, so leaving yourself in good position on approaches is going to be just as pivotal overall as it is most weeks. 

1. Adam Scott (+1.103)
2. Xander Schauffele (1.012)
3. Cameron Young (0.831)
4. J.J. Spaun (0.819)
5. Ludvig Åberg (0.805)

Driving Distance over the last 24 rounds

More than distance matters this week in Charlotte—but distance absolutely still matters. You need to be able to give yourself some better looks on approach this week, and in non-major conditions, that means simply being long. 

1. Aldrich Potgieter (326.95 yards)
2. Jake Knapp (322.11)
3. Gary Woodland (320.16)
4. Rory McIlroy (319.86)
5. Chris Gotterup (319.53)

Strokes-gained around the green over the last 24 rounds

Admittedly, there is a drop-off in weight from this point on, but the next biggest piece of the pie is around the green play isolated. Especially on the Green Mile, navigating these green complexes is incredibly important to success.

1. Matt Fitzpatrick (+0.600)
2. Tony Finau (0.574)
3. Patrick Cantlay (0.555)
4. Ben Griffin (0.545)
5. Rory McIlroy (0.512)

Truist Championship model rankings this week

It’s a pretty all-encompassing model this week for the 2026 Truist Championship, but we start with our two biggest pieces of the pie with strokes-gained tee to green (18%) and strokes-gained approach (12%). That’s followed by driving distance (10%) and strokes-gained around the green (8%) before we get into a lot of smaller pieces baked into the model. That includes proximity from 175-200 yards (7%), bogey avoidance (7%), strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (7%), strokes-gained Quail Hollow (5%), proximity from 200+ yards (5%), strokes-gained off the tee (5%), approach putt performance (5%), strokes-gained hard courses (5%) and then round it out with comp course history at Torrey Pines, Doral and Riviera (2% each). With all that in the processor, here’s how the top 10 of the model shakes out. 

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Xander Schauffele
3. Ludvig Åberg
4. Cameron Young
5. Matt Fitzpatrick
6. Adam Scott
7. Patrick Cantlay
8. Jordan Spieth
9. Si Woo Kim
10. Nicolai Hojgaard

2026 Truist Championship picks

Ludvig Åberg +1800 (DraftKings)

The heater for Ludvig this season is, frankly, going a bit too unnoticed for my liking. His T21 at Augusta is the worst finish he’s posted in his last six starts. While he hasn’t won, he’s been knocking on the door with four top-five finishes to his credit, and now he should be an ideal fit for Quail in his current form. 

What more could you want than this: Åberg is fifth in strokes-gained tee to green, fifth in strokes-gained approach, ninth in driving distance, 13th in strokes-gained around the green, eighth in bogey avoidance and even 11th in approach putt performance over the last 24 rounds. Throughout the bag, he’s checking the boxes of the complete game that it’s going to take to contend this week. 

He’s too damn good of a player and is perfoming entirely too well for this to not be almost as obvious a fit as Cam Young was coming into last week. 

Adam Scott +3300 (FanDuel)

While the start at Doral didn’t make me feel particularly good about backing Adam Scott, he made good on it with a push on the weekend to finish T4, which is more in line with what I was expecting. And I’m expecting to see it again. 

Frankly, there’s a good bit about Quail Hollow that also made sense when looking at Doral. Scott being 10th in driving distance while first in approach can’t be ignored, and you also can’t overlook him being seventh in tee-to-green as well. The putter is really still the biggest concern for me as he’s lost at least 1.9 strokes on the greens in each of his last four events. Even still, though, he’s hitting it well enough to find himself on the leaderboard. 

The Aussie’s history at Quail Hollow isn’t something to necessarily write home about, especially in recent years, but the profile of who Scott is right now fits this event and venue quite well. 

Alex Fitzpatrick +14500 (DraftKings)

After two guys near the top of the odds board, let’s go wild with a 145-to-1 longshot on Alex Fitzpatrick. Yes, his brother Matt ranks in the top 10 of the model, but the odds on Alex just seem wrong based on some of the form. 

Fitzpatrick, now that he’s on the PGA Tour, is striking the hell out of the ball. He’s third in strokes-gained tee to green while being first in off the tee and ninth on approach over the last 24 rounds while also ranking 10th in bogey avoidance and ranking top 30 in driving distance as well. Experience would be the biggest thing you’d worry about with him, but this is a guy who won the Indian Open, won the Zurich, and then reeled off a T9 at the Cadillac last week while losing 3.38 strokes putting. 

That ball-striking is too tasty to not take a little swing on him at this price. 

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. ​​If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.