2026 Valspar Championship Betting Models, Picks: Avoiding the Copperhead’s Bite

The Florida swing continues on the PGA Tour with a stop at Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead course for the 2026 Valspar Championship after our own heartbreak at the Players Championship. Ludvig Åberg had a three-shot lead after 54 holes, Matthew Fitzpatrick was tied for the lead on the 18th tee, and neither held up the trophy. Here’s to better luck at the Valspar, I guess.

Innisbrook’s Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Fla., is a demanding tee-to-green par-71 test measuring out to 7,352 yards on the scorecard. The club opened in 1970 and began hosting the Valspar Championship (then the Tampa Bay Classic) since its inception in 2000, with the exception of 2001 after the Sept. 11 attacks and in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Viktor Hovland returns to the Valspar after a relatively surprising victory here a year ago, but we’ve seen that ball-striking continues to be among the biggest factors for success when it comes to attacking the Copperhead Course. With that in mind, expect to see a lot of that in the model as we dive into the crucial stats this week, and the players who model out the best to succeed this week.

Key Stats for Innisbrook Copperhead course

Strokes-gained approach over last 24 rounds

Strokes-gained approach will be weighted heavily again this week with ball-striking being of the utmost importance, but the weight won’t be overly emphasized. There’s so much more that goes into success on the Copperhead course that we have to just include it as part of the pie, not the noticeably biggest piece of it.

Zac Blair (1.545)
Austin Smotherman (1.187)
David Ford (0.891)
Zecheng Dou (0.837)
Akshay Bhatia (0.759)

Good drive percentage over last 24 rounds

The Copperhead course certainly demands a premium on driving accuracy, but this also isn’t an exceptionally short course either. You need a blend of solid length while still finding the majority of fairways (and avoiding trouble). That’s why we’re leaning on the more all-encompassing good drive percentage this week.

Aaron Rai
Patrick Fishburn
Doug Ghim
Patton Kizzire
Rico Hoey

Strokes-gained on par-5s over the last 24 rounds

Jacob Bridgeman (0.210)
Sungjae Im (0.199)
Nicolai Hojgaard (0.196)
J.J. Spaun (0.192)
Matt Fitzpatrick (0.156)

Proximity from 175-200 yards

Kevin Yu
Zecheng Dou
Viktor Hovland
Lucas Glover
Eric Cole

Valspar Championship model rankings this week

The Valspar model might be one of the most in-depth yet straightforward that we’ll see all season. There’s a premium on ball-striking and specifics of that, which is why we start with strokes-gained approach in the last 24 rounds (15%) and match it with good drive percentage (15%). We then have another set of metrics including pretty heavy weight with strokes-gained par-5s, proximity from 175-200 yards, and strokes-gained around the green in the last 24 rounds (10% each). We then sprinkle a bit on scrambling and strokes-gained putting on Bermuda (8% each) as well as strokes-gained par-3s and strokes-gained off the tee in the last 24 rounds (7% each). That leaves us to round it out with course history at Innisbrook (5%) and at comp courses like Colonial (2%), Accordia Golf Narashino (2%) and Sedgefield (1%). Here’s where the model comes out with those numbers.

Ryo Hisatsune
Viktor Hovland
Sahith Theegala
Akshay Bhatia
Jacob Bridgeman
Xander Schauffele
Matt Fitzpatrick
Nicolai Hojgaard
Mac Meissner
J.J. Spaun

2026 Valspar Championship picks

Viktor Hovland +1850 (DraftKings)

I’m sure I sound like a broken record who loves lost causes, but Viktor Hovland continues to pique my interest with his recent form. Not only does he obviously have the win here last year, but his recent form lends itself to optimism that he could have a win coming again soon after back-to-back T13 finishes at the Players and API.

Hovland is eighth in strokes-gained approach, 11th in strokes-gained around the green, 13th in scrambling, second in proximity from 175-200 yards over his last 24 rounds and has gained strokes putting in each of the past two weeks on Bermuda greens. What’s more, he’s also 21st in good drive percentage, which should set him well to take advantage of where the rest of his game is trending. And let’s also not forget that his win wasn’t an outlier, as he also has a T3 finish at the Copperhead course as well.

The odds are certainly shorter than I’d like for them to be, but the game is too good for me to not return to the well and see what happens with Hovland this week.

Jacob Bridgeman +2200 (DraftKings)

Bridgeman’s odds are undeniably way, way shorter than you’re used to seeing them, but there’s good reason for that given how well he’s been playing—and, more pressingly, how good a fit he could be this week at the Valspar.

The win at the Genesis is just part of the equation for Bridgeman, who hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 in seven starts so far in 2026, and has three top 5s and four top 10s in that as well. Meanwhile, his second start at the Valspar last year also resulted in a solo third finish. He’s top 30 in both strokes-gained approach, proximity from 175-200 and good drive percentage, as well as first in par-5 scoring, and third in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda. He checks boxes across the board and is actually a preferred pick this week over Hovland to me.

We might be witnessing an ascension with Bridgeman, or at least a guy who knows how to take advantage of a hot streak. That doesn’t mean we can’t also try to cash in as well with where the arrow is pointing.

Zac Blair +20000 (Bet365)

After two guys near the top of the odds board, we’re going to scroll way down to find Zac Blair at 200 to 1 and take a massive longshot on one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour. While the Copperhead course isn’t the smallest ballpark, it’s a spot where Blair’s skill set and form should be tremendously valuable.

Blair, as you can see in the stats, leads the field in strokes-gained approach over the last 24 rounds, but also leads the way in par-3 scoring and is top 35 in the field in strokes-gained putting on Bermuda. And while it may not be going all that far, he’s eighth in good drive percentage as well.

Coming off of a T8 in Puerto Rico, Blair returns to a place where he has four missed cuts in five starts for his career. However, his one made cut came in 2023, and he went on to finish T10 while losing strokes on approach. That’s enough for me to take a flier on him at this number, because he’s playing better and as a better fit at the Valspar than the odds suggest.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.