Fact or Fiction: Rory McIlroy Will Win More Majors in 2025

Our writers debate McIlroy’s major potential, Justin Rose’s place in Masters history and the updated Ryder Cup outlook for both squads.

Rose and McIlroy after the playoff was decided. / Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated

Welcome back to SI Golf’s Fact or Fiction, where we'd react just like Rory if we ever got inside the champions locker room.

Once again, we’re here to debate a series of statements for writers and editors to declare as “Fact” or “Fiction” along with a brief explanation. Responses may also (occasionally) be “Neutral” since there's a lot of gray area in golf.

Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on the SI Golf X account.

Rory McIlroy joined the elite career Grand Slam club by winning the Masters—and ending an 11-year major drought in the process. With that weight lifted and a favorable lineup of major venues ahead, he will win at least one more in 2025.

Bob Harig: FACT. This all depends on his level of motivation. Does he lose some after such a historic and uplifting victory? It’s certainly possible there is a massive letdown. That’s why it’s good he is playing next week in New Orleans, to sort of get right back in it. And he’s expected to defend his title at the Truist, which is a one-off in Philadelphia. Rory won that tournament at Quail Hollow last year and he’s got to be looking at the venue as an excellent opportunity to win another major.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Look, he could certainly do it and he’ll probably be a top-two betting favorite in each of them. But it is tough to win multiple majors in one season. Since Tiger won two in ‘06 there has been Harrington in ‘08, Spieth in ‘15, Koepka in ‘18 and Schauffele last year. I’m excited to see how McIlroy plays while unburdened by a major-championship drought, but if we’re just playing the odds, they would suggest he’ll win more majors, but probably not this season.

John Pluym: FACT. I don’t think there’s any doubt he wins another this year. He survived Sunday’s rollercoaster round to finally win a green jacket and the Grand Slam. A huge weight has been lifted. He’s already won three times this year. And how cool would it be if he wins at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland? 

John Schwarb: FACT. This isn’t a prisoner-of-the-moment opinion—when forecasting the majors before the Masters I took McIlroy to win the PGA at Quail Hollow, one of his favorite PGA Tour playgrounds with four wins. And if not there, Oakmont (where DJ won while driving it on a string) and Royal Portrush also have great potential. 

Justin Rose, 44, mounted a massive rally Sunday at Augusta only to fall in the playoff to McIlroy. He has been on the short end of two Masters playoffs and also has a T2 along with four other top 10s. He’s the best all-time Masters player without a green jacket. 

Bob Harig: FICTION. Greg Norman is the easy answer here. He had nine top-6 finishes without winning including an excruciating playoff loss to Larry Mize the year after Jack Nicklaus beat him. And then there was the blown lead to Nick Faldo in 1996. Tom Weiskopf also comes to mind. He tied for second in three out of four Masters in the 1970s and had six top-10s. Johnny Miller and Ernie Els might like a word, too.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Yes, Greg Norman famously kicked away the ‘96 Masters, but he was also a three-time runner-up. Generally his Masters land in a “gagged it away” bucket as opposed to being defeated by a slightly better player, like Rose has. But three times the Masters bridesmaid for a guy that was ranked No. 1 in the world for 331 weeks will always be shocking.

John Pluym: FACT. Rose has three runner-up finishes in 2015, ’17 and ’25. He has a total of six top-10 finishes, and he’s missed the cut only three times in 19 appearances. Finally, he is the only player to have led or shared the lead after every round of the Masters without winning. He hasn’t closed the deal yet at the Masters but it wouldn’t be surprising if he wins one in the next two to three years.

John Schwarb: FICTION. In an eight-year span from 1969 to 1976, Tom Weiskopf finished T2 four times including twice to Jack Nicklaus by a shot, in 1972 and the classic 1975 edition. He also gets extra credit for one of the great lines in sports broadcasting in 1986, during Nicklaus’s iconic win at age 46, when Jim Nantz asked him what Nicklaus was thinking on the 16th tee and Weiskopf said “if I knew the way he thought, I’d have won this tournament.”

The McIlroy-Rose playoff was the first Masters playoff since 2017 when Sergio Garcia defeated Rose. The Masters is the only major that still plays sudden death and that’s the best way to decide such an important title.

Bob Harig: FICTION. It’s not the best way, but it’s the most practical. And you can’t argue with the drama that sudden death brings at the Masters. But is it the best? I like the aggregate playoff that the other majors have adopted. That doesn’t mean what the Masters does is wrong. Nobody is complaining.

Jeff Ritter: FACT. Sudden death can be fast and ruthless, but I really like that the Masters still does it. It keeps you glued to your seat for however  long as the playoff takes..

John Pluym: FACT. Love the sudden-death format. Golfers have already played 72 holes. And I’m not a big fan of the U.S. Open’s two-hole aggregate format, the four-hole aggregate the Open Championship uses or the PGA Championship’s three-hole aggregate. The Masters format is the only way to go. I also think it’s the most dramatic.

John Schwarb: NEUTRAL. I think sudden death works for the Masters after its pressure-cooker back nine—there’s just enough oxygen (and daylight) left for one or two sudden-death holes. No Masters sudden-death playoff has gone longer than that. We still haven’t seen the U.S. Open’s new format in action yet, but an aggregate playoff feels proper there. Ditto the PGA and British.

After McIlroy’s win at the Masters, the odds for Europe to win the Ryder Cup ticked down from +150 to +130 (FanDuel). Still a long way to go until Bethpage, but the potential European team looks better right now on paper than the home team.

Bob Harig: FACT. The U.S. is always the team that looks better on paper but no so much this time. While there is little doubt that Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele will round into form, it’s been a long time since guys like Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay have won. What about Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas? They seem a good pairing but does Spieth even get on the team? Is the U.S. to rely on Russell Henley—a good partner for Scheffler at the Presidents Cup—as a secret weapon? Sahith Theegala. Lots of questions right now.

Jeff Ritter: FICTION. Europe looks better than it did four months ago, but better than the U.S. team? On paper, the U.S. simply has more higher-ranked players. But in terms of intangibles, Europe is definitely gaining steam.

John Pluym: FICTION. It’s too soon to say the Euros have the better team. Plus, the home team has won the Ryder Cup five consecutive times. And as long as the home team gets to set up the course the way it wants, it’s going to be hard for the visitors to break through. I still like the U.S. to win it on home soil.

John Schwarb: FACT. Cups aren’t won on paper but the all the mojo is going in the Euros’ direction. Seven PGA Tour events have been won by European players since the start of February (three by McIlroy and one each by Sepp Straka, Thomas Detry, Ludvig Åberg and Viktor Hovland) while none have been won by the presumed stars of the U.S. team like Scheffler, Schauffele, Morikawa and JT. Plenty of time to rectify that but you’re asking me right now.