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2021 U.S. Open: Latest Betting Odds, Favorites and Sleeper Picks for Torrey Pines

Brooks Koepka is the pick, but watch out for Paul Casey and a surprise from a 66-1 long shot.
Brooks Koepka

Brooks Koepka looks like a strong bet at 18-1 odds this week.

We are often reminded just how cruel golf can be, and there was no better example than last weekend at the Palmetto Championship.

Chesson Hadley was cruising to his second win on Tour and even after a few hiccups early in his Sunday round, his lead seemed insurmountable. However, the moment got the best him and ultimately had to settle for a T-2 finish after playing the last three holes at three over par. As result, 22-year-old South African Garrick Higgo won his first PGA Tour event in just his second start.

As for the picks from last weekend, Branden Grace was a WD, but our sleeper Doc Redman almost stole the show finishing just one shot back. Our other pick, Sweden’s Alex Noren, missed the cut.

On to the third major of the year, the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. The only other time it hosted this tournament, Tiger Woods treated us to probably the greatest single performance in golf history, and maybe sports history. Not sure if anyone will win on one leg again, but Torrey Pines should offer fireworks as it will play narrow and fast.

Many of the top players in the world will be looking to rebound off a strange (and unforgettable) PGA Championship. Patrick Reed enters the week as the most recent PGA Tour winner at Torrey, thanks to a win earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open.

According to William Hill, world No. 3 Jon Rahm is the favorite at 10-1, even after his stunning withdrawal from the Memorial with COVID-19. Next up is 2016 U.S. Open champion Dustin Johnson at 16-1, as he's fresh off a decent showing at the Palmetto Championship. Defending champion Bryson DeChambeau and two-time U.S. Open winner Brooks Koepka are 18-1. Rory McIlroy, the 2011 winner, Jordan Spieth, the 2015 champion, and local San Diego native Xander Schauffele are each 20-1.

For our favorite, we’re officially making a stand and no longer fading Brooks Koepka at the U.S. Open. At 18-1 odds, he's a decent value as well. He didn't play well last week in South Carolina, but that doesn't really matter. Why? Because the Palmetto Championship doesn't matter to him. But the majors do, and there is no one better over the past four years, especially at this one. In his last 11 major starts, he’s secured eight top-seven finishes. 

For a midrange pick, we’re going with a guy who’s played well at majors but has not yet broken through: Paul Casey at 45-1. He's gone 2-17-26-4 at his last four major starts, and the 43-year-old is playing some of the best golf of his career. Casey is coming off a sixth-place finish at the Porsche European Open and ranks fifth on Tour in strokes gained: approach. 

For a sleeper, Marc Leishman at 66-1 looks good. Winner of the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open and two-time runner-up in that event, Torrey Pines certainly suits his eye. In his last 24 rounds at Torrey, Leishman ranks third in strokes gained: approach and 10th overall. He didn't play great at the Memorial, but he owns six career top-10s at majors and will look to rebound off his poor PGA Championship performance.

2021 picks scoreboard:

Winners: 3
Top 10s: 11
Top 20s: 11
Misses: 39

Here are some notable odds, according to William Hill:

Jon Rahm 10-1

Dustin Johnson 16-1

Bryson DeChambeau 18-1

Brooks Koepka 18-1

Rory McIlroy 20-1

Jordan Spieth 20-1

Xander Schauffele 20-1

Collin Morikawa 22-1

Justin Thomas 22-1

Patrick Cantlay 25-1

Viktor Hovland 25-1

Patrick Reed 25-1

Tony Finau 25-1

Hideki Matsuyama 28-1

Tyrrell Hatton 35-1

Webb Simpson 40-1

Shane Lowry 40-1

Daniel Berger 40-1

Will Zalatoris 40-1

Paul Casey 45-1

Louis Oosthuizen 45-1

Justin Rose 45-1

Scottie Scheffler 45-1

Matthew Fitzpatrick 50-1

Garrick Higgo 50-1

Cameron Smith 50-1

Phil Mickelson 50-1

Tommy Fleetwood 50-1

Abraham Ancer 60-1

Corey Conners 60-1

Joaquin Niemann 60-1

Harris English 66-1

Marc Leishman 66-1

Sungjae Im 66-1

Adam Scott 66-1

Jason Kokrak 70-1

Sam Burns 80-1

Gary Woodland 80-1

Lee Westwood 80-1

Sergio Garcia 80-1

Max Homa 90-1

Bubba Watson 100-1

Brian Harman 100-1

Branden Grace 100-1

Christiaan Bezuidenhout 100-1

Charley Hoffman 100-1

Billy Horschel 125-1

Ryan Palmer 125-1

Garrick Higgo 125-1

Kevin Streelman 125-1

Russell Henley 125-1

Matt Wallace 125-1

Stewart Cink 125-1

Si-Woo Kim 125-1

Kevin Na 150-1

Robert Macintyre 150-1

Sebastian Munoz 150-1

Cameron Champ 150-1

Matthew Wolff 150-1

Carlos Ortiz 150-1

Charl Schwartzel 150-1

Matt Kuchar 150-1

Ian Poulter 150-1

Matt Jones 150-1

Russell Henley 175-1

Francesco Molinari 175-1

Adam Hadwin 200-1

Zach Johnson 200-1

Lanto Griffin 200-1

Kevin Kisner 200-1

Brendon Todd 200-1

Bernd Wiesberger 200-1

Erik Van Rooyen 200-1

Wilco Nienaber 200-1