2023 American Express: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for PGA West

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.

The American Express kicks off an interesting stretch on the PGA Tour schedule. Over the next three weeks we will play two large-field Pro-Ams across three layouts and sandwiched in between are the North and South courses at Torrey Pines. That’s eight courses in three weeks we must preview—a handicapper’s nightmare.

Rather than dwell on the three-course challenge this week, let’s just jump right in and see what it takes to win The American Express. The field of 156 players will compete on all three courses for the first three days of competition. After Saturday’s round, the field is cut to the low 70 and ties.

Five of the top 10 players in the world are competing. Eleven of the top 25 and 38 of the top 100 comprise one of the strongest fields in recent history.
The 156 will be playing for $8 million and $1.44 million for first place.

The weather looks a little unseasonably cool in Palm Springs this week. Of course, there’s no rain in the desert and little breeze predicted. All these elements will just add to low scoring. The average winner’s total over the past 10 years is 24 under par. Although American Express may limit your spending, they have no restrictions on how low these guys can go.

La Quinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and PGA West’s Stadium Course are some of the easiest weekly tests on the PGA Tour annually.

42 of the 54 holes have a birdie rate over 15%. That’s nearly 80% of the holes they will compete on this week.
Thirty-five percent—19 of the holes—have a birdie rate over 25%.
The Nicklaus Tournament Course leads the way with 17 holes over 15% and seven over 25%.

I’ve deciphered the skills needed to contend in La Quinta by taking a deep look at the successful competitors from the past 10 years. Approach play or strokes-gained approach is vital. Nine of the last 10 winners have gained an average of 2.8 strokes against the field attacking the greens. To take it one step further, over the last 10 years on average, the top nine finishers had positive strokes-gained approach stats.

The second trend that struck me was putting. This truly is a “putting contest,” Mr. Rahm. Looking back over the same decade, ALL 10 winners gained on the greens (average 3.0 strokes-gained putting). Similar to approach play, to get in the top 5, your strokes-gained putting needed to be positive. These two trends are very telling. Players will need to score by taking care of numerous opportunities.

16 of the par 4s across all three courses are under 425 yards in length.
9 of the par 5s across all three courses are under 550 yards in length.
Add those two up and 46% of the first 54-holes are easy by PGA Tour standards.

A fantastic field has set their sights on this week. The American Express tends to allow longshots a chance, but with nearly half of the Top 25 in the world playing I’ll start my weekly picks with a premier player from the top of the odds board.

Pick to Win: Tony Finau

Tony Finau (+1300 at SI Sportsbook) has finished in the top 10 in six of his last eight starts. He won three of those tournaments. Tee-to-green he ranks first in the field. When you start to combine the complete skill set needed to win in the desert you can’t get past him. In his last 10 tournaments, he has gained over 3.5 strokes on approach and another 3.3 putting. He consistently puts the ball off the tee so close to the green that his par 4 scoring-birdie or better percentage and ballstriking are all top 7 in this field. Finau has finished in the top 15 in two of his last three starts at the AMEX. He’s my favorite to win at the top of this odds board.

Last week's pick: Brian Harman finished T32 at the Sony Open.

Place: Si Woo Kim

Last week’s Sony Open winner also won this tournament in 2021. Si Woo Kim is a killer placement coming into this week to finish in the top 20 (+145). He’s comfortable in Palm Springs and enters the week in great form. His excellent approach game is now complimented by an opportunistic putter. He’ll ride last week’s momentum right into another strong finish.

Last week's pick: Tom Kim missed the cut, to many bettors' dismay.

Showdown: Day Over Fowler

Grillo left the islands early and we cashed before the weekend got started. Let’s do that again with another clever matchup showdown. Jason Day had a strong fall finishing with four top 25s in five starts. Rickie Fowler had a decent fall run going but showed signs of starting a swing change when he missed the cut at the RSM. Take Day over Fowler (-142 on FanDuel) and collect on Saturday.

Last week's pick: J.J Spaun (12) cashed in a matchup over Emiliano Grillo (MC).