2023 Players Championship: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for TPC Sawgrass
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, Fla. — People have a lot of pre-conceived notions about the Players Championship. They see the island green and immediately get intimidated. Of course, 17 of the 18 holes on the TPC Stadium Course are protected by penalty areas. Eighty-eight bunkers are scattered amongst the acres and the greens aren’t very large (5,500 square feet on average). We see fairways that are 28 yards wide and overseeded rye rough.
For 41 editions, the Players has been contested at TPC Sawgrass. Pete Dye’s most infamous design tests the world’s best annually. Known as one of the strongest fields in golf, 23 of the top 25 in the OWGR (22 of 25 SIWGR) are playing along with 69 of the top 100. They will be competing for a record PGA Tour purse of $25 million dollars, with $4.5 million awarded to first place on Sunday.
The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is a par-72 layout covering 7,275 yards. Inside the scorecard there is a varied collection of par-3s, 4s and 5s. Ten of the holes have a birdie rate of 15% or higher. Conversely, there are 12 holes which hold a bogey rate of 15% or higher as well. That unique combination of risk and reward is the most accurate epitaph we could inscribe on Dye’s headstone. Pete’s numerous courses consistently test and engage you. They require you to make careful decisions and notoriously punish poor strategy.
Unlike last year’s tournament, the weather looks relatively calm for March in Ponte Vedra Beach. The course sits just a mile or so from the Atlantic coast so each year the first element I look for wind. Forecasts call for it to blow in the mid-teens during the tournament. Temperatures are perfect for golf, sitting in the 70s each afternoon. There is a little rain in the forecast for Friday evening into Saturday morning. Just enough to prime the greens for scoring over the weekend.
When it comes to scoring at the Players it is important to note one important detail. From 2007 to 2018 the tournament was contested in May. In 2019, the PGA Tour moved it back into March where it had been for decades prior to the May move. That dramatically change the way TPC Sawgrass was played.
- The winning average score during May at the Players was 12 under
- The eclectic group of winners from 2013-18 had average pre-tournament outright odds of +10400 (104-1)
- Since 2019, the average winning score is 14 under
- The last three winner’s average odds were +2000 (20-1)
In March the Tour overseeds the greens with Poa trivialis and the rough with rye. In doing so, they make the course more predictable to play. The firm and fast conditions of May were very difficult for players to contend with. Throw in bermudagrass rough and grainy greens and one can see why many of the men didn’t mind the move back to March. The rough was severe last week at the API, but that rye is far more predictable to hit from.
This is why we see an elite list of winners over the recent March editions (McIlroy, Thomas, Smith). I believe this year will follow that trend. Much like most of the designated events so far, the water will surely find its level. How will the world’s best do it? Here are the keys I would focus on as a PGA coach to get my player best prepared for one of the most well-rounded tests in all professional golf.
- Don’t get distracted by all the “fairway” talk. Yes, players will need to effectively find the fairway, but unlike last week they will need much less than driver to do so. TPC Sawgrass is the epitome of a positional course. We should factor in those who play well at Pebble, Wa’ialae, and another Dye design: Harbour Town.
- Once you’re in the fairway, one-third of your approach shots will come from a wedge distance (100-150 yards). Players will need to be very precise scoring from this distance as the greens have very small ledges and outcroppings. Proximity to the hole when a short shot presents itself is a huge differentiator at the Stadium Course.
- Players miss greens at TPC Sawgrass. Historically, they register under the Tour average. Gaining strokes on the field around the green is very important. In the last three Players, winners have gained more with their short game than with their driver against the field.
- Don’t sleep on putting this week. Last week, I wrote putting would be a factor and look what happened on Sunday at API. Spieth, Scottie and so many others missed opportunities when Kurt cashed in on 17. Sawgrass will be similar. The guys three-putt significantly more than the Tour average here. Those humps, ledges, and swales are tough to lag putt on.
Once again, there’s an elevated feeling around the course. A $25 million purse turns some heads. The guys know this is their championship and realize the significance. Make sure you pay attention to the pressure of the moment as well when you wager this weekend.
Win: Scottie Scheffler
Since the start of 2023, Scottie Scheffler has finished 7th, 11th, first, 12th and 4th. Pundits love to praise Rory and Rahm, but the truth is Scottie is playing just as well. The world’s current No. 2 has gained over seven strokes against the field tee-to-green in his last five starts. An incredible ballstriker, he’s ranked first in par-4 scoring and second in bogey avoidance. Last week’s near-miss is just the fuel he needs to take down the field this week. SI Sportsbook has him at +1000. The five wins in 13 months is unmatched. This week he gets number six.
Last week's pick: Jason Day finished a solid T10, but not a winner.
Place: Justin Thomas
Justin Thomas has an incredible record at the Stadium Course. In seven starts, he has a scoring average of 70.48, a win in 2021 and four top-25 finishes. SI Sportsbook has him at +100 to finish in the top 20. Jump on that placement bet and collect on Sunday.
Last week's pick: Tough beat! Sungjae Im was the pick to finish in the top 20, but double bogeyed the 17th on Sunday and finished T21.
Showdown: Harris English Over Brian Harman
I love looking for unique head-to-head matchups with a considerable edge. Harris English just finished second at Bay Hill and 12th at the Genesis. Brian Harman on the other hand has missed the cut in three of his last four starts. His iron game is way off. He’s losing over two strokes to the field in his last five starts. Take English over Harman on PointsBet (-115).
Last week's pick: Rickie Fowler finished T31, more than good enough for a matchup win after Aaron Wise opened with 79 and missed the cut.
Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy +800
Jon Rahm +900
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Justin Thomas +1600
Max Homa +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Tony Finau +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Jason Day +2800
Jordan Spieth +3000
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Will Zalatoris +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Tom Kim +3500
Keegan Bradley +4000
Shane Lowry +4000
Rickie Fowler +5000
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional and founder of Read The Line, a leading golf betting insights service covering the PGA Tour which will raise your betting acumen (and hopefully your bankroll). Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow on TikTok, Instagram and Twitter.