2024 Sentry: Betting Odds, Picks and a Prop for the Plantation Course at Kapalua
Nobody will miss Jon Rahm at the Kapalua Resort on Maui this week. All 59 players in the field are thankful the talented Spaniard is not here to defend his 2023 title. Rahm had collected 63 birdies in his last two tournament starts on the Plantation Course, finishing runner-up and winning a year ago. Just as his path changed with a move to the LIV Tour, so has the Sentry to start the PGA Tour season.
The 2024 PGA Tour schedule will take place over the next 35 weeks. Alongside four major championships and the Olympics, the Tour will conduct eight signature events, the Players Championship and the FedEx Cup Playoffs. That’s a ton of meaningful golf to pack into eight months!
The Sentry is one of those eight signature events and as such has 38 of the top 50 in the OWGR competing for $20 million and a first-place check of $3.6 million. Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite at +500 on SI Sportsbook’s odds board. Scheffler’s skill set makes him a solid selection to win outright, but at those odds it is tough to turn a profitable week.
My outright winner pick is Collin Morikawa. This week’s WIN (+1200 SI Sportsbook) prediction has a very strong resume at Kapalua. In his four starts, Collin has finished seventh twice, fifth and second last year. The par-73 layout at 7,596 yards might seem long for Morikawa’s mojo, but the third-longest course on Tour plays much shorter than advertised. Super-wide fairways climbing and running down Maui’s hillsides create collection areas off the tee.
Collin Morikawa has a track record at Kapalua plus extra motivation this time.
Harry How/Getty Images
The field tends to end up in the same approach areas independent of ball speed. A great comparison venue for the Plantation Course is Augusta National Golf Club, as the home of the Masters is also a very well-defined second-shot golf course. Although Kapalua isn’t nearly as exact, the skill set needed to contend is similar. Morikawa fits the mold because he is a world-class wedge player. Few in the field other than Scheffler and Tom Hoge can hit their scoring irons like Collin.
Eight holes are short and require an excellent wedge to score. Nine of the remaining 10 holes require a long approach shot; another characteristic of Morikawa’s game. Two are par-3s, three are par-4s measuring over 500 yards and the other four are par-5s. Those par-5s are essential to scoring and long approaches in two set you up for eagle and birdie chances. The average winning score by the last five winners is 25 under par. Looking ahead, the weather looks really good and quite calm. Unless there’s a significant change, I would plan on getting to the high 20s by Sunday night to remain relevant.
Another skill Morikawa has used to succeed at the Sentry is putting. The last 10 winners have gained over four strokes (on average) against the field in the year they won. Just last year, Morikawa gained just under five strokes on the greens in finishing a couple behind Jon Rahm. Some will point out he lost the lead on Sunday, but past transgressions provide future inspiration. Morikawa had a lackluster year in 2023 by his own admission.
A fall win at the Zozo saved a winless campaign but the reality is Collin’s a very motivated man in 2024. Morikawa changed coaches in the fall and this event has to be one on the calendar marked with permanent pen. I love his game, history and every intangible heading into another week at The Sentry.
There’s no doubt Collin will have to contend with Scottie Scheffler to finish on top. At 5-1, Scheffler is a tough take as an outright. I love starting the tournament with a top-5 placement and then watch Scottie’s live odds for winning. Imagine he begins Round 1 with a slow nine holes. Grab his outright number then when it has climbed climbs considerably. In the meantime, take the PLACE (+115 SI Sportsbook) bet in the top 5 and know you have an opportunity to get some Scottie cash on Sunday.
The skill set already established is a polar approach game (short and long) and a hot putter. Course history certainly helps and an above-average short game. For this week’s matchup or SHOW bet, I love this head-to-head I found on BetMGM. Since winning in Mexico, Tony Finau has lost strokes with his putter in nine of 11 events and five of his last six around the green. Finau will need to finish holes under par and those numbers just don’t allow you to make enough birdies.
Sungjae Im has three starts at the Sentry finishing 13th, eighth and fifth. In those events, he’s gained an average of 4.6 strokes against the field total. Im is an impressive Bermudagrass putter and possesses a skillful short game. Sungjae can score here and therefore has a considerable edge on Tony Finau. Take Im over Finau (-110 BetMGM) in a four-day tournament showdown.
Adding more players to the field at the Sentry only makes it better. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is one of the most entertaining on Tour. Enjoy the return in primetime from Hawaii. The simple setup of the next eight months may only last one year. Who knows where or when they all will be playing in 2025 so let’s take advantage and start the season with a win!
Hit the quick link below to gain direct access to our win, place and show for The Sentry at SI’s Sportsbook.
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Select Odds to Win at SI Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler +500
Viktor Hovland +800
Collin Morikawa +1200
Max Homa +1200
Ludvig Aberg +1300
Patrick Cantlay +1300
Xander Schauffele +1500
Jordan Spieth +2200
Tom Kim +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +2800
Tony Finau +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Rickie Fowler +3000
Sungjae Im +3000
Brian Harman +3500
Cameron Young +3500
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Russell Henley +3500
Sam Burns +3500
Wyndham Clark +4000