PGA Championship Round 3 Fact or Fiction: Morikawa or Schauffele Will Win

The SI Golf staff discusses who will win the season’s second major and how low the major-championship record can go.

Xander Schauffele (putting) and Collin Morikawa will play together again in the final round of the PGA Championship. / Adam Cairns-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the PGA Championship edition of SI Golf’s Fact or Fiction. We’ll be here after every day’s play with a series of statements for writers and editors to declare as “Fact” or “Fiction” along with a brief explanation. Responses may also (occasionally) be “Neutral” since there's a lot of gray area in golf.

Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on the SI Golf X account.

Sunday is shaping up to be another great PGA Championship finale at Valhalla, with two players tied at the top and six within three shots of the lead. But the winner is coming from the final pairing of co-leaders Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele.

Pat Forde: FACT. I’ve been ride-or-die with Xander since before this wild tournament began, so I will gladly stay by his side with a share of the lead heading into Sunday. He hasn’t retained the phenomenal touch he displayed shooting 62 on Thursday, but he sure hasn’t lost anything, either. He’s way overdue to win a major, and this one is right there within reach.

Bob Harig: FACT. Both players had an opportunity to separate a bit on a day when there was plenty of good scoring but that can also mean they’ve saved their best for last. Morikawa has been playing like the two-time major champion we saw a few years ago. Schauffele is in the final group for the fifth time this year and one of these times he will get it done.

John Schwarb: FICTION. Valhalla has been so volatile and gettable and Sunday shouldn’t be any different. I can make a case for a number of guys to go low and steal this one, and the final pairing will be hearing roars all over. So give me the field over the co-leaders. 

The major championship record round of 62 has stood for seven years since Branden Grace set it in 2017. Xander Schauffele and Shane Lowry matched it this week and Lowry had a putt at 61. But forget 61—we’ll see a major 60 in the next seven years.

Pat Forde: FACT. I say this without closely examining the course rotation from now into the early 2030s, but we are trending lower and lower. Unless the governing bodies push back on super-low scores by tricking up the courses, it’s going to happen. You can’t build them too long anymore; even massively long holes are reachable for eagles and easy birdies. The golfers are too good to keep from an inevitable 60 in the semi-near future.

Bob Harig: FACT. It’s inevitable. You can’t make the courses long enough for these guys, and all it takes is soft conditions or an Open venue in the UK where the wind lies down and it is going to happen. I’m guessing we won’t see such a score at Pinehurst next month and maybe not even at Royal Troon but it’s coming.

John Schwarb: FACT. Scores will keep going lower and lower in regular events and majors. It’s the courses, the technology, the athletes and most of all the approach—mental barriers to crazy low scoring seem to be vanishing.  

Defending champion Brooks Koepka saw his back-to-back hopes end with a Saturday 74. He is still LIV Golf’s best shot to win one of the season’s remaining two majors.

Pat Forde: FICTION. This is a pure probability play. With Bryson DeChambeau starting Sunday two strokes off the lead, he has the first-best shot at a major title. Beyond that, I’d give him a solid chance as well at Pinehurst. And I wouldn’t rule him out as a contender at Troon, although I might have to see it happen to fully believe it.

Bob Harig: FICTION. It would be Bryson DeChambeau on Sunday. He put himself right in the mix with that eagle at the 18th hole. He led after the first round of the Masters and—Koepka’s Singapore victory notwithstanding—is playing better golf. That’s not to say Koepka won’t be a factor at Pinehurst, but so could be Jon Rahm or Cam Smith.

John Schwarb: FICTION. I can’t wait to see Cam Smith’s around-the-green wizardry at Pinehurst, and he’s got one Claret Jug so he’d be my favorite from the LIV stable to get another. Koepka’s hunger will only grow so he’s not off my betting sheet either, he’s just not my first choice.