CIF's Division 1 Football Playoffs Will Have 8 or 9 Teams, Here's Why

It's the question that gets asked this time of year every high school football season in Southern California: How many teams will be in the CIF Southern Section Division 1 playoffs?

Due to competitive equity, which uses a computer to rank all teams in the section, the section office then decides where to draw the proverbial line between the end of the Division 1 playoff field and the start of the Division 2 playoff field. Each fall it leaves fans, pundits, coaches and players alike wondering where that line will be drawn.

With two weeks left in the regular season, I believe the Division 1 playoff field is starting to take shape. I'm going to predict the field will have no more than nine teams based on a few factors that I'm going to outline below.

The last Friday of games will be played October 30 and the playoff pairings will be released Sunday, November 1 at 10 a.m. Not only does the size of the D1 playoff field impact the top teams, but it also impacts the subsequent divisions below it, which cuts even deeper if you're an at-large team hoping to get into the postseason.

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Look At Top 10 Teams

According to HSratings.com, which provides the rankings for the high school football playoffs, here are the Top 10 teams as of Monday, October 19:

1. Santa Margarita — 8-0

2. Sierra Canyon — 8-0

3. Mater Dei — 6-2

4. St. John Bosco — 6-2

5. Orange Lutheran — 5-3

6. Centennial — 5-3

7. Mission Viejo — 6-1

8. San Clemente — 7-0

9. JSerra — 4-4

10. Chaparral — 5-3

Obviously, things will change between October 19 (when I'm writing this) and the end of the regular season (Oct. 30), but not as much as you might think.

Top 6 Not Changing

The Top 6 teams won't change. The order might, but I believe those top six teams are locked in due to their power rating and each team's schedule the rest of the way. For example, Mater Dei and St. John Bosco still play — but a loss for those teams won't drop them out of the Top 6 due to the strength of the opponent.

Conversely, a team like Corona Centennial doesn't have a juggernaut left on their schedule (although Chaparral is good), so the Huskies' (more than likely) lopsided victories will keep them up. Same with Sierra Canyon, which has Bishop Amat to deal with at the end of the year, but chances are they win that game convincingly.

San Clemente, Mission Viejo Game Canceled

Due to the wildfires in South Orange County, this past week's Alpha League tilt between rivals San Clemente and Mission Viejo was canceled. And the game will not be made up. This is HUGE in regard to the shape of the Division 1 playoffs. Because it means that Mission Viejo will most likely finish 8-1 and San Clemente will finish unbeaten at 9-0 — both will be Alpha League champions.

This alone, in my opinion, keeps both teams in the Top 8. Those Top 8 would make a fine Division 1 playoff field. The teams all get a first-round bye the first week of November and the quarterfinals are played November 13.

This scenario is likely if No. 10 Chaparral, No. 11 Bishop Amat or No. 12 Inglewood jumps up to No. 9 on the final day of the season, because all those teams would be automatic qualifying teams from their respective leagues which makes them No. 1-seed eligible — starting the Division 2 field for a clean cut from the Top 8 teams.

How We Get To 9 Teams

Here's where things get interesting. If JSerra is still the No. 9 in the final rankings, because Division 2 cannot start with an at-large team, I think the Southern Section will pull JSerra up into D1 and make the No. 8 and 9 seeds compete in a 'play-in' game.

This has been done before. The Division 1 field was nine teams in 2024 — Santa Margarita and Inglewood played in the 'play-in' game. There's precedent.

JSerra's 37-28 win over Bishop Amat and Crean Lutheran this season is the biggest indicator that the Lions are a slight cut above Division 2-caliber teams, but stuck in no-man's land when it comes to ilk of talent that fills the Division 1 playoff field.

Not to mention ... JSerra is the only team to score three touchdowns on Sierra Canyon all season long.

Why I Think It Won't Be 10 Teams

If history tells us anything, it will tell us to go with the majority. And the majority of the time — especially as of late — the CIF Southern Section has settled on an 8-team Division 1 playoff field. That was the case in 2025, 2023, 2021, and 2019.

Only ONCE has the field been 10 teams, and that was in 2024. Sierra Canyon played Servite and Santa Margarita played Inglewood in the 'play-in' games.

To make a 10-team Division 1 field in 2026 would require a team that simply doesn't belong, like Chaparral, Bishop Amat, Inglewood or Crean Lutheran. It's not because of any analysis of my own, but because of the scores that've indicated such — or scores that will likely play out in the next two weeks.

But If This Happens ...

It's convenient for any pundit to predict the D1 playoff field after Week 10. I'm taking a shot now (after Week 8) to try and predict how I think things are going to play out — and of course — have a little fun (Godforbid someone does that, right?).

In the final games atop the rankings that will likely solidify my predictions, I think Corona Centennial will beat Chaparral; Sierra Canyon will beat Bishop Amat; and JSerra will lose to Santa Margarita, but beat Servite. This is what will keep my prediction intact.

However, if an upset transipires, it could provide a good excuse for the CIF Southern Section to make a larger field — but I don't see it happening.

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