San Francisco Giants Season Preview: Shorter Fences, Still Long Odds

Editor's note: Welcome to SI's MLB preview. Click here to view every team's outlook in 2020, including predictions, projections and, yes, a preview of the 2030 preview. Click here to read the Giants fantasy preview.

It’s not quite the end of an era, not with so many champions still in Giants uniforms, but the departure of Madison Bumgarner to Arizona seems like a sea change by the Bay. Over 11 years he delivered San Francisco fans three titles, four All-Star seasons and one heroic five-inning relief appearance. Bumgarner’s exit also futher weakens a rotation that ranked 18th in FIP and 23rd in strikeout rate.

Team president Farhan Zaidi was brought in to steer the Giants into a rebuild. After a year on the job, though, he’s made just a few minor trades. The departures of free agents Bumgarner and closer Will Smith will yield draft picks this summer, while righthander Jeff Samardzija, first baseman Brandon Belt and third baseman Evan Longoria remain. Perhaps the latter two will benefit from the shorter fences at Oracle Park as the team moves its bullpens from foul territory to beyond centerfield. Regardless, the Giants are too good to tank, not good enough to win and very expensive to boot. They’ve had a top-10 payroll every year since 2011, spending close to $600 million the last three years to finish below .500 three times.

A transition is inevitable, but it will take time. Zaidi hired manager Gabe Kapler after the Phillies fired him to replace the retired Bruce Bochy. Buster Posey’s likely successor at catcher, Joey Bart, the No. 2 pick in ’18 out of Georgia Tech, could arrive as early as late summer. The farm system, one of the worst in the game just three years ago, has improved sharply and will give the team a fighting chance against the Dodgers someday. 

For now, though, the goals are short-term: First, hope Samardzija, righty Johnny Cueto, Belt and the rest of the vets can play well enough to generate trade interest. Then give second baseman Mauricio Dubon and corner infielder Chris Shaw opportunities to prove themselves like Mike Yastrzemski did a year ago. The Giants are in line for another losing season; it’s up to them to ensure it’s not a lost one. — Joe Sheehan

Projected Record: 70-92, 4th in NL West

The Giants unexpectedly had 77 wins last year. While they lost longtime ace Madison Bumgarner, the team still isn’t bad enough to flirt with a 100-loss season.

Key Question: Who Will Be the First to Homer Off Madison Bumgarner?

MadBum is now with the Diamondbacks, and it will be weird to see a #ForeverGiant as important as him in another uniform pitching against San Francisco. But that’s the way the game works now. Feels like Buster Posey has to zing one off him, right? — Matt Martell

Player Spotlight

Moving Up: Mike Yastrzemski, OF

The grandson of Hall of Famer Carl, Yaz posted an .852 OPS as a 28-year-old rookie. He’ll get enough playing time in ’20 to prove he’s no fluke.     

Moving Down: Buster Posey, C

 The 11-year veteran had career lows in average (.257) and slugging (.368) in 2019. His value at this point comes solely from his catcher’s mitt. 

Watchability Ranking: Avert Your Eyes

If you’re looking for some aging inspiration, look no further. The first four hitters in the lineup (Brandon Crawford, Evan Longoria, Brandon Belt, Buster Posey), first two pitchers in this rotation (Jeff Samardzija, Johnny Cueto), and anchor of this bullpen (Tony Watson) are all over 30. If you’re looking for anything else… look elsewhere. — Emma Baccellieri

Preview of the 2030 Preview

Madison Bumgarner, RP: If you wrote a spec script about Bumgarner’s return to the Giants after five years in the desert and five more in Atlanta, you might get a note back reading “too on the nose.” But that’s where we are, as a wiser, gray-bearded (but still red-assed) Bumgarner turns 40. No more than a No. 3 starter at those other locales, he triumphantly returns to San Francisco in a role fans fondly remember him playing at the end of the 2014 World Series in Kansas City: closer. — Craig Goldstein