The Phillies Are the Anti-Astros
The Phillies signed Bryce Harper three weeks after trading for J.T. Realmuto in 2019. The two moves marked the end of their attempted tank-and-rebuild.
Kyle Ross/USA TODAY Sports
This World Series matchup is full of contrasts.
The Astros have Dusty Baker, in his 25th season as a big-league manager, while the Phillies have Rob Thomson, in his first. One of them will win their first title as a skipper by the time this thing is over.
Houston has what could be the deepest bullpen of any World Series team ever. Philadelphia has José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez and Zach Eflin.
The Astros held first place for 158 days during the regular season, including off days. How many days did the Phillies lead the NL East? One.
The thing that stood out most to me, though, was the juxtaposition of how these two teams were constructed. We all know about the tank-and-rebuild that Houston used in the first half of the 2010s, which led to the franchise’s first World Series championship in ’17 and its continued supremacy in the American League. For better and worse, former Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow, the Astro in Exile, is the architect of this organization’s resurgence and is responsible for the juggernaut that it is today.
Many wayward teams have tried to replicate what Luhnow did with the Astros—and to a lesser extent, what Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer did with the Cubs around the same time, which led to their 2016 World Series title—and most of them have failed. The few that you reasonably could consider successful (Padres, White Sox, Mariners) still haven’t come close to matching the level of excellence that Houston has sustained. (It’s too early to tell whether this will work for the Orioles, though their future does look promising.)
Philadelphia is one of the teams that tried and absolutely botched its attempted teardown-and-rebuild. In the immediate years after 2011, the most recent time they made the playoffs before this season, the Phillies traded away franchise staples Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels, with the hope that they could restock their farm system and begin to assemble a contender by the late ‘10s. Only the Rollins deal netted them a prospect who is currently on their roster, right-handed starter turned high-leverage reliever Zach Eflin. They did make some use out of their return for Hamels. One of the prospects they got back, catcher Jorge Alfaro, was one of the players they traded to the Marlins for J.T. Realmuto. Still, they only made that move because they weren’t going to win with Alfaro or any of the other players they got in those initial trades, aside from Eflin.
Now, 10 years after the start of that rebuild, the Phillies are playing in the World Series because they decided the best way for them to go for it was to look outside their organization. They spent “stupid money” to get Bryce Harper on the final day of February 2019, three weeks after they had made the trade for Realmuto, who went to free agency after ‘20 and re-signed for five years and $115.5 million. Both players are centerpieces of this team. They signed co-ace Zack Wheeler for five years and $118 million after the ‘19 season. Over this past offseason, Philadelphia added free agent sluggers Kyle Schwarber (four years, $79 million), who led the National League with 46 home runs this season, and Nick Castellanos (five years, $100 million).
The Phillies do have some homegrown players who have emerged as key big-league players. Four of them were selected in the amateur draft: co-ace Aaron Nola (first round, seventh pick) and first baseman Rhys Hoskins (fifth round) in 2014, Alec Bohm (first round, third pick) in ‘18 and Bryson Stott (first round, 14th pick) in ‘19. No. 3 starter Ranger Suárez and high-leverage reliever Seranthony Domínguez were both signed as international amateur free agents roughly six months apart after the ‘11 season. But, for the most part, this is a team that started winning because owner John Middleton decided to open up his wallet and pay the big bucks for the big impact players.
Have any questions or comments for our team? Send a note to mlb@si.com.
1. THE OPENER
Despite his underwhelming 11–13 record, Nola was one of the best National League pitchers during the regular season. His 8.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio led the majors and he had 6.0 WAR.
Matt Slocum/AP
“Decided underdogs, the Phillies can win the World Series. The way they can do it is by getting length from starting pitchers Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, hitting home runs with runners on and trusting José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez to get the highest-leverage outs, which won’t always be in the ninth.
“But here’s their problem: that is the one path on paper in which they can win four times. The Astros are the much deeper team, with a more diverse offense and, most critically, a much deeper pitching staff. Across a seven-game series Houston has more ways to win four times.”
That’s Tom Verducci, writing in his column from this morning previewing the World Series. He runs through all the crucial info about how this World Series will play out.
Everything You Need to Know About the Astros-Phillies World Series by Tom Verducci
Houston is the much deeper team. Philadelphia is the Team of Destiny. Here’s your guide to the Fall Classic.
2. ICYMI
Let’s get you caught up on some of our stories from earlier this week.
The Trials and Tribulations of Changing How Pitchers and Catchers Communicate by Emma Baccellieri
PitchCom has revolutionized how players relay pitch signals. But instituting it this season was a mighty undertaking that met some resistance around the sport.
World Series Predictions: Expert Picks for Astros vs. Phillies by SI MLB Staff
Will faith and destiny be enough for Philadelphia to upset Houston?
Here’s What Makes the Postseason Astros So Dominant by Nick Selbe
If Houston can replicate its winning formula against Philadelphia, it could be the first team to go undefeated in the postseason.
How the Phillies Can Upset the Astros and Win the World Series by Will Laws
Bryce Harper and Philadelphia will need more than team-of-destiny vibes to beat Houston.
When Bo Chose Baseball by Jeff Pearlman
Fresh off of winning the Heisman at Auburn, he was destined for Tampa—until a slapstick franchise and a bullying owner mucked it all up.
3. WORTH NOTING and TRIVIA from Matt Martell
The topic of this section today also makes for a great trivia question…
Five players this season hit at least 30 home runs and stole 10 or more bases. The only one whose team didn’t make the playoffs is, you guessed it, Shohei Ohtani. Two of the other four are Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts, as you’d expect. The other two are both playing in this World Series. Can you name them?
4. W2W4 from Nick Selbe
Finally—the wait is over.
After five long days, the Fall Classic is here. Though the Astros and Phillies took extremely divergent paths to reach the postseason, they’ve been similarly dominant once the calendar flipped to October. Houston’s pitching has been nearly untouchable, while Philadelphia’s lineup has scored the most runs per game of any playoff team. It’s your classic unstoppable force vs. immovable object.
Game 1 of the World Series is a monumental day for many reasons, but few are more impactful than these six words: Steal a base, steal a taco. Taco Bell is once more gracing us with this holiest of all promotions, so it’s worth speculating about how long we’ll have to wait for our taco to cash in, and who will be the hero to deliver us to the promised land? These two teams have combined for just five stolen bases this postseason, with the leader of the pack being the not-so-fleet-of-foot Kyle Schwarber. J.T. Realmuto has the quickest pop time (1.82 seconds) in the majors, while Houston’s Martín Maldonado ranks eighth (1.92). That’s not what you want if you’re keeping your fingers crossed for free tacos, but hopefully someone will rise to the occasion when the nation needs it most.
5. THE CLOSER from Emma Baccellieri
Dave Dombrowski crashed Justin Verlander’s press conference yesterday.
Thomas Shea/USA TODAY Sports
During Justin Verlander’s press conference yesterday, a special guest poked his head in to ask a question: Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski. “When did you start your career again?” the executive asked, a joking reference to the fact that when Verlander broke into MLB in 2005, it was with the Dombrowski-helmed Tigers. Which helps to put Dombrowski’s legacy in perspective: He’s now made four trips to the World Series with four teams in four decades. (First with the ‘97 Marlins, then with Verlander and the ‘06 Tigers, next with the ‘18 Red Sox and now with the ‘22 Phillies.) He’s the first person ever to do that. Now, he’s trying to be the first to win it all with three of them, with that Tigers team being the only one to come up short.
That’s all from us today. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow. In the meantime, share this newsletter with your friends and family, and tell them to sign up at SI.com/newsletters. If you have any questions or comments, shoot us an email at mlb@si.com.
