How Much Would a Zach Neto Extension Cost the Angels?

When news broke last weekend that the Angels did not make shortstop Zach Neto a long term contract offer Angels fans were upset. Neto is the heart, hustle, and driver of the Angels right now and at age 25 is firmly in his prime.

Currently, Neto is eligible for arbitration but agreed to a one year $4.15 million deal. For each of the next three seasons Neto and the Angels will need to agree to one year pacts or head to arbitration. Given Neto's production and the way the salary system works, each of the next three contracts will be larger than this year's.

How valuable is Neto?

Shortstop is a premium defensive position and Neto plays it well. The Fielding Bible rated Neto as fourth in all of MLB with 13 defensive runs saved. Only Mookie Betts, Taylor Walls, and Corey Seager ranked above him.

In the modern game, shortstops swing a good bat as well. Neto is an above average hitter by multiple metrics. His OPS+ of 117 last year indicates he was 17% better than league average with the bat. If you expand offense to include baserunning, Neto's wRC+ was 116, or 16% better than league average.

WAR calculations change a bit from publication to publication. Baseball-Reference credited Neto with 3.1 WAR while BB-Ref scored him 5.1 wins above replacement. For the sake of the remaining math, we will average the two and say Neto is a 4 WAR player.

With one WAR going for $10 million to $12 million for starting caliber players, Neto provided the Angels with $40 million to $48 million worth of production last season.

Sep 5, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels shortstop Zach Neto (9) returns to the dugout following the top of the eighth inning against the Athletics at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

What factors go into an extension?

The Angels have Neto under control through the 2029 season and he will be 29 when he enters free agency. Ballparking likely raises through the arbitration process, Neto could cost approximately $7 million in 2027, $12 million in 2028, and $18 million in 2029. Add that to the $4 million from this year and Neto likely has $41 million or so coming to him.

An extension would need to buy out some free agent years to provide value to the Angels. Neto entering free agency in his early 30s would negatively impact his future market. Of course there is always risk of injury or a drop in Neto's performance which are mitigated by an extension.

And while the $10 to $12 million per WAR figure is accurate for players on the open market, Neto is not on the open market. The Yankees can't buy him to replace Volpe at the moment, for example. Neto's options are to take life changing guaranteed money from the Angels or play out four years and hope for a windfall in free agency.

That is, of course, if the Angels even have the foresight to offer an extension.

What would be a fair extension?

From the Angels perspective they'd want to lock in cost certainty the next four years and buy out at least two free agent years, possiibly three. This would give them control of Neto until he is 31 or 32, giving the Angels all of his prime.

For Neto he'd need to get a large enough guarantee now that he is fine heading into free agency at 31 or 32.

If we can reasonably expect a 25 year old to stay at his current production level through his age 30 season, that means the Angels can reasonably expect 5 more years of 4+ WAR. Players will often drop a half WAR or so as they hit their early 30s.

For a 6 year extension, that could mean Neto provides 23.5 WAR or $235 million to $280 million worth of value for the Angels. Given the fact Neto is not a free agent and has earned less than $5 million in his career there is no reason for the Angels to offer that.

Somewhere between 60% and 70% of that number would be a reasonable extension at this point in Neto's career. 6 years and $165 million would be a fair starting point. The Angels could add an option for a 7th season and some performance bonuses to be able to announce a 7 year $200 million dea.

Given the fact the Angels payroll is set to fall off a cliff the next two seasons the team can afford it. With Neto still years away from free agency he would be enticed to agree to it.