Astros Former World Series MVP Performing at Higher Level Than Numbers Suggest

A Houston Astros star hasn't gotten off to a great start, but his numbers should start to turn around based on his performance.

Apr 14, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) reacts after hitting a three run home run against the St. Louis Cardinals during the ninth inning at Busch Stadium. | Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have gotten off to a painfully slow start at the plate this season.

Right now, only three of their 13 positional players have an OPS+ in triple digits; left fielder Jose Altuve, third baseman Isaac Paredes and outfielder Chas McCormick. They have a 118, 135 and 109, respectively.

As a whole, the Astros have a slash line of .219/.306/.321, ranking in the bottom half of the league in virtually every offensive category in the league. There are a lot of players who are performing below their normal levels, headlined by designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, who has yet to find his power stroke.

Catcher Yainer Diaz has a .130/.184/.217 slash line while their big free agent addition, Christian Walker, has a .172/.284/.241 slash line, bringing up horrible memories for Houston fans of the disasterous free agent addition Jose Abreu was.

Another player whose statistics don’t look great is shortstop Jeremy Pena, who has a .207/.288/.379 slash line through 16 games and 66 plate appearances.

He has hit three home runs, which is tied for the team lead with Paredes and Altuve. His four stolen bases are the second most on the team and his seven RBI are tied for the second most.

However, there are reasons to believe that a legitimate breakout for Pena is on the horizon as his advanced stats hint that he is performing better than his raw numbers would suggest.

“Pena should be hitting .321 with a slugging average of .515…His walk rate is up to nearly average, too,” wrote Michael Salfino of The Athletic (subscription required).

His walk rate thus far is 7.6%, which would be a career-high. Showing patience and taking more pitches has been a team-wide improvement in 2025, which should result in more offense once the run producers get hot as their teammates are getting on base more often.

Another encouraging development is that Pena is hitting the ball with authority on a regular basis.

His average exit velocity of 90.2 mph would also be a career high and is above the league average of 88.3 mph. An elite hard-hit rate of 52.1% has also been recorded, well above his career number of 37.9% and the MLB average of 39.1%.

There has been some bad luck involved in his lack of production with a .200 batting average on balls in play; the league average is .292 and as Salfino shared, the expectation of how he is performing is well above the numbers he is actually putting up.

Positively regressing to the mean would be big for the team’s offense.

Pena has shown just how productive he can be on the biggest stages, winning the MVP award in the ALCS and World Series in 2022. Now, he is knocking on the door of providing big numbers like that consistently.