Houston Astros Draft Woes Contributing to Underwhelming Organizational Depth

It has been a long time since the Houston Astros knocked a draft out of the park.

Jul 25, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros general manager Dana Brown on the field before the game against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

2024 ended up being the end of an era for the Houston Astros.

Their streak of advancing to the ALCS was snapped at seven after they were eliminated in the Wild Card round by the Detroit Tigers, who played a major part in the impressive stretch when they traded Justin Verlander to the Astros in 2017.

Verlander is one of the players who moved on this offseason, signing a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants.

He was one of four players from their last World Series team who won’t be returning to the team in 2025. Right fielder Kyle Tucker and relief pitcher Ryan Pressly were both traded to the Chicago Cubs, and Alex Bregman remains a free agent, likely moving on as well.

That is a lot of championship talent to replace, as starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi also hit the open market and landed with a new team, signing a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

Projections still view the Astros in a favorable light, as they are among the few legitimate World Series contenders in baseball.

However, it is fair to question how much longer they will remain in that tier when their core players continue aging and the difficult roster decisions will continue.

Sustaining the level of success Houston has is not an easy task. It has proven to be costly as well, since they have traded several prospects for established big leaguers to remain competitive at the Major League level.

It is something every franchise does when they are looking to win now, but where the Astros have failed is replenishing their system with solid prospects.

As Keith Law of The Athletic noted, Houston hasn’t drafted well in over half a decade.

Starting pitcher Hunter Brown is the only drafted player to produce a WAR of at least 1.0 at the Major League level, and he was selected in 2019.

The front office has played it incredibly safe in drafts, selecting those who profile as platoon players or bench depth. Their strategy with the pitching staff is similar, choosing a lot of No. 5 starter-types and middle relievers, emphasizing control over stuff.

That has left their farm system dangerously thin now that they are in need of some pieces to help replenish the Major League roster.

Given their struggles drafting, the only way to boost their pipeline is by acquiring prospects from other teams.

It is what they did in the Tucker deal, as third baseman Cam Smith is the only top-100 prospect they currently have.

A similar outcome could unfold, depending on how the season goes, with ace Framber Valdez. Like Tucker, he is set to be a free agent after the 2025 campaign.

If the team isn’t in a position to contend, they should think long and hard about trading him to help restock their underwhelming organizational depth.

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