Just How Good Can Houston Astros Ace Hunter Brown Become?

Hunter Brown has not found his best form yet with the Houston Astros.

Jun 1, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Tampa Bay Rays in the first inning at Daikin Park. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Houston Astros have had Framber Valdez as the team’s ace for years, but that is a title that Hunter Brown is looking to hold.

A fifth-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft out of Wayne State University, the talented right-hander gave a glimpse of what he was capable of in 2024.

From May through the end of the season, there were only two pitchers to register a lower ERA than Brown: Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves, both of whom won some hardware.

Skenes was the National League Rookie of the Year, while Sale won the NL Cy Young Award.

Brown didn’t receive any of the accolades of his peers, but the Astros had to be thrilled with the level of production that he was providing.

In 2025, that momentum has not stopped, as he has continued to blow opponents away every time he takes the mound.

The awards and honors that Brown missed out on in 2024 are all going to be within his reach this year, given how well he has pitched.

Through 12 starts and 73.2 innings, he has a 1.83 ERA with 84 strikeouts. He has won an MLB-high eight games and produced an impressive 2.9 bWAR, which is already a career high for a single season.

Brown has honed his control, issuing fewer walks this season. He has also done a great job of limiting hard contact, surrendering fewer hits and home runs as well.

Hunter Brown Can Unlock Another Level Improving Arsenal

It has culminated in an excellent breakout campaign. But the best part for Houston is that this isn’t even his final form.

As shared by Eno Sarris of The Athletic (subscription required), Brown is getting by right now with dominant fastballs. His secondary pitches haven’t quite caught up yet, but when they do, he will be even tougher to hit against.

“If there is a nit to pick, it's that the secondaries aren't quite as good as the fastballs, but the knuckle curve scores well by Stuff+ and should be able to handle more usage if the fastball-heavy approach hits a snag,” Sarris wrote.

Per Baseball Savant, Brown has a Pitching Run Value of +16, which is in the 99th percentile.

A massive chunk of that is from his Fastball Run Value of +13, also in the 99th percentile. His Breaking Run Value of +3 and Offspeed Run Value of +1 are both above average, but not nearly as elite in the 79th and 73rd percentiles.

Already one of the best pitchers in baseball, Brown could become truly elite by taking his secondary pitches to that next level.