Recent Projections Have Astros Contending Despite Criticism of Their Offseason

Recent projections have the Houston Astros remaining legitimate World Series threats.

Jul 31, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; (from L-to-R) Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña (3), second baseman Jose Altuve (27) and left fielder Yordan Alvarez (44) congratulate each other following the final out against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the ninth inning at Minute Maid Park. | Erik Williams-Imagn Images

This offseason has been a wild one for the Houston Astros, as their roster has undergone some major changes.

The biggest move was trading star right fielder Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and star prospect Cam Smith. 

Only one year away from free agency, the team opted to get as much value in exchange for him as possible instead of holding onto him throughout the year, which is what they have done with their other homegrown stars.

Another massive loss from the lineup looks likely, as third baseman Alex Bregman remains a free agent.

Paredes can at least slide into that spot in the lineup, but replacing a star of that caliber, who means a lot more to the franchise than just his numbers at the plate, would be difficult.

On the mound, the Astros saw Yusei Kikuchi depart after his dominant run following the team acquiring him from the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of the deadline in July. He agreed to a deal with the Los Angeles Angels.

Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander also left in free agency, signing a one-year, $15 million deal with the San Francisco Giants.

That is a lot of talent for a team to lose.

Replacing all of that, on top of other needs that already existed, was a tall task for general manager Dana Brown.

He filled one glaring need, signing Christian Walker to take over at first base. Paredes profiles as someone who should have a lot of success as a dead-pull hitter and Wesneski provides some good versatility on the pitching staff.

But, it is hard to ignore how much production left the franchise this winter.

Many people are down on Houston’s outlook, especially with the improvements their rivals in the American League West made.

However, the Astros are far from dead yet based on some projections for 2025 shared by PECOTA.

According to their projections for 2025 playoff chances, Houston has a 63% chance of advancing, which is tied with the Minnesota Twins. Only three AL teams have higher odds; the New York Yankees (78%), Baltimore Orioles (78%) and Texas Rangers (75%).

2025 Playoff Chances (PECOTA):

100% LAD
90% ATL
87% CHC
78% NYY BAL NYM
75% TEX
69% PHI
63% MIN HOU
62% ARI
58% SEA
49% TOR
38% SD
32% TB
31% KC
29% CLE
26% MIL
22% DET
19% STL
15% SF
12% BOS
8% LAA
6% PIT WSH
5% CIN
2% ATH
0% CWS MIA COL

— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) February 3, 2025

Based on these numbers, the Astros are still amongst the favorites to earn a Wild Card spot if they cede the division to the Rangers.

Despite having the 10th-best playoff chances, Houston is No. 7 in their World Series chances with 6.1%. The same three AL teams are ahead of them, along with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves and Cubs.

Those projections are going to shock a lot of baseball fans, but it goes to show just how good of an organization the Astros continue to be.

Despite losing so many talented players, they are a force to be reckoned with in the AL.