Astros Entering Unfamiliar Territory as MLB Draft Lottery Approaches

The Houston Astros are about to do something they’ve never done before — participate in the MLB Draft Lottery.

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The Houston Astros are used to go going to the MLB winter meetings as a playoff team looking to reload and make another run.

Well, Houston wants to reload this offseason, but it will do so as a non-playoff team for the first time since the 2016 season. The Astros saw its eight-year playoff streak snapped this season. Back in 2016, their first-round pick was determined by their record. This time? There’s a chance to punch above their record, so to speak.

The Astros will participate in the MLB Draft Lottery for the first time in franchise history on Tuesday. The lottery only determines the first six selections in the draft. But, with a little luck, the Astros could move up significantly from where they’re slotted now.

Astros in MLB Draft Lottery

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The teams that didn’t make the playoffs are in the draft lottery, but three are ineligible. The Colorado Rockies, the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Angels cannot participate. The Rockies have won lottery picks in two straight drafts and MLB rules don’t allow them to participate a third time. The Nats and Angels are considered “payor clubs,” meaning they give revenue sharing money to MLB and can’t be in the lottery in consecutive years.

That trims the field to 15 teams. Then it comes down to weighted odds based on records. The Rockies had the worst record in baseball. But because they’re ineligible, the Chicago White Sox have the best weighted odds to claim the No. 1 pick at 27.73%.

From there, the odds go down based on winning percentage. The Astros, per MLB.com, have the worst odds to claim the No. 1 overall pick at 0.34%. It would take a draft lottery miracle for Houston to move to the top of the draft, a place it has not occupied since 2014 when it made the final of its three straight No. 1 overall picks.

Last year Washington claimed the No. 1 overall pick even though its odds were only at 10%. That’s roughly the odds for the Baltimore Orioles, who had the fourth-worst winning percentage among the eligible teams.

Everyone’s odds go up for the next five picks. If the Astros’ ping-pong ball doesn’t come up in the first six picks, then their first-round pick will be slotted based on record. Since Houston finished with the best record for non-playoff teams, it’s likely their first-round pick will likely be at No. 18.

There is a silver lining. The Astros have two first-round picks for the first time since 2015. Hunter Brown’s top three finish in American League Cy Young voting, which gave Houston a prospect promotion Incentive pick that will be at No. 28 overall. The last time Houston had multiple first-round picks it selected Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron.