Following Guerrero Extension, Should Astros Pursue New Deal for Young Star?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s contract extension shook baseball. Would the Houston Astros do something similar with one of their players?

Now, the Astros don’t have a player worth $500 million over 14 years, which is what Guerrero will get form the Toronto Blue Jays. Paying Guerrero that much was part of the point for Toronto. The other part was keeping him off the market and controlling his cost for a long period of time.

The latter is a strategy the Astros have employed in the past. But which player makes the most sense.

Houston traded Kyle Tucker, in part, because it didn’t appear the Astros had the appetite for the money Tucker might be looking for (likely in Guerrero’s zip code).

Houston may want to avoid an extension with left-hander Framber Valdez for a similar reason. The Astros won’t trade him unless they fall dramatically out of the playoff race. But he’ll test the market and likely get a huge contract somewhere else.

It’s way too early to talk about an extension for young outfielder Cam Smith. But it might not be for starting pitcher Hunter Brown.

Recently, Josh Reddick called Brown the “next Verlander” on the Crush City Podcast, hosted by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome. The belief is that if Valdez does bolt, Brown is next in line to top the staff.

If so, given his body of work, why not extend him now?

Brown is 25-23 with a 4.02 ERA as Houston heads to Seattle. But, since last May, he is 11-5 with a 2.46 ERA in 142.2 innings pitched. He struck out 150 and walked 42. The 26-year-old right-hander has found something, and he’s emerged as a budding co-ace to Valdez.

Brown is young and has controllable years ahead. He’s entering his third full season. He’ll be arbitration eligible in 2026 and a free agent in 2029. Given his age, talent and performance, he’s a perfect candidate for a long-term extension.

No, he won’t get Vlad Jr. money. Pitchers don’t get that sort of cash. But there is a potential template for Houston to consider.

The Boston Red Sox recently signed rookie infielder Kristian Campbell, one of their top prospects, to a eight-year, $60 million deal. He’s only played a handful of games. But the deal takes him through his controllable years, along with two free agency years.

Houston could land Brown on a similar deal. The money might be right, but perhaps it’s a five-year deal with some escalators, something that takes care of Brown financially and gives the Astros certainty. It’s something to watch in the months ahead.

Recommended Articles