Yordan Alvarez's Triple Crown Outlook Coming Into Focus

As Yordan Alvarez inches closer to earning a historic Triple Crown, we assess the obstacles he still must overcome.

Houston Astros star Yordan Alvarez. Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It's been a busy week for the Houston Astros, as they mutually agreed to part ways with GM Dana Brown while also continuing their efforts to fend off the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners for the AL West division title. Meanwhile, Yordan Alvarez continues to chug along as the MVP candidate has a season for the ages.

As we enter the stretch run of the regular season, Alvarez remains atop the American League in home runs, RBI and batting average, the three categories that make up baseball's batting Triple Crown. If the 29-year-old Cuban slugger can hold his lead in all three categories, he would become the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and only the second since 1967.

But Alvarez still has his work cut out for him. While he holds a comfortable lead in batting average, things are considerably tighter when it comes to his home run and RBI advantage.

Let's break down how things stack up for Alvarez in each category:

Home Runs

Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez hits a home run. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The home run race in the AL could come right down to the wire, and Alvarez's power blip in August isn't helping matters as he looks to hold off a trio of AL East sluggers in the chase.

In pursuit of his first home run title, Alvarez must keep pace with Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Ben Rice of the New York Yankees and Pete Alonso of the Baltimore Orioles. Caminero and Rice currently each sit one long ball shy of Alvarez's 36 home runs, while Alonso sits four back at 32.

Alvarez held a more commanding advantage heading into the month, but has recorded just one dinger over 22 August games. While the home run crown remains up for grabs, it's all but certain that the AL leaders won't challenge recent home run totals, as the front-runners sit well off the pace of Cal Raleigh's 60-homer 2025 campaign and Aaron Judge's 58 in 2024.

RBI

Similar to the home run race, Alvarez's power slump this month has made for a rather narrow contest. In fact, he and Alonso now sit in a dead heat with 91 RBI apiece, representing the 2021 ALCS MVP's biggest threat to his Triple Crown.

While Alvarez has just nine RBI in August (for comparison, he's already had three months of more than 20 RBI this season), Alonso is making a charge with 22 RBI in the same span of time and with five games remaining.

Ironically, Alvarez and Alonso share some common MLB history. Each man earned Rookie of the Year honors in 2019, as Alvarez was in his first season with the Astros while Alonso played for the New York Mets.

Batting Average

Houston Astros DH Yordan Alvarez. Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

One category that Alvarez probably doesn't need to worry too much about is batting average. Barring a catastrophic slump, he should continue to cruise to the AL batting title with his current .322 average, 14 points higher than the Rays' Chandler Simpson (.308). Simpson's Tampa teammate Yandy Diaz (.301) sits third, with no other unqualified hitters looming as threats once they get enough at-bats.

The contrast between Alvarez and Simpson is stark. While Alvarez is mostly known for his power, Simpson is primarily a speedster who hits singles. After 234 career games and nearly 1,000 plate appearances, he is still waiting for his first home run. Furthermore, only 19 of his 144 hits this season went for extra bases.

While it does not count towards the Triple Crown, Alvarez also owns a commanding lead in OPS league-wide. His prodigious 1.051 mark is more than 100 points better than the next qualified hitter, Willson Contreras of the Boston Red Sox (.916).

Alvarez would likely tell you he's only focused on Houston's push for the playoffs. But the opportunity to achieve an incredibly rare feat is within his reach. The next month will determine whether history is made.