Projecting A's DH Brent Rooker for the 2024 Season
Brent Rooker was the Oakland A's best hitter in 2023 over the course of the full season, finishing with a 127 wRC+. Zack Gelof (133) came up and edged him out in the second half, but not by a lot.
Rook went from a waiver claim in November to the last player to make the Opening Day roster to the best hitter on the team and Oakland's lone All Star representative in pretty short order. The 29-year-old launched 30 homers while earning the first consistent playing of his career, and that elusive number 30 came in his final at-bat of the season. Rooker said his goal for the year was to hit 25, but once he eclipsed that in the middle of September, he'd be lying if he wasn't aiming for 30.
On the field, Rooker was a beast. Off the field he was always available to field any questions reporters might have. He's an all-around good guy that has worked his butt off to get to where he is, and he really embodies what it means to be an Oakland A.
After his breakout season in 2023, what do the projections over at FanGraphs have in store for Rook in 2024?
Over the course of a full season, they have him hitting .223 with a .311 OBP, down from .246 and .329 this past season. His strikeout rate stays basically the same at 32.7% and his walk rate even ticks up to 9.7%. After being one of the 20 best hitters in baseball in 2023 with a 127 wRC+, they have him regressing to a 108 next year.
But how many home runs will he hit you ask? 26. Not a bad number by any means. In fact, they have most of his stats in the same ballpark as the ones he put up in 2023. His rbi total is projected to go up, as well as his run total. The big downgrade is that batting average and OBP thanks to a dip in BABIP, which they have at .292.
Rooker hasn't been a high BABIP guy over his career to date, so the .317 he posted last season may be a little on the higher end. That said, he also crushed the ball in 2023, ranking in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity, 93rd in barrel%, and 91st in hard hit rate. If he continues mashing the ball like that, he can be hard to stop.
Projecting Zack Gelof for 2024
Some may look at Rooker's month of April (.353 batting average, .465 OBP, nine home runs) and think that his season numbers are more reflective of that one month than the totality of the year, but if you take his first half numbers and put them up against what he did in the second half, he was a similar player all year long.
First half: .246 average, .341 OBP, .826 OPS, 130 wRC+
Second half: .246 average, 313 OBP, .805 OPS, 123 wRC+
There was a little bit of a drop in the second half, but nothing that would make you think that he can't keep on launching balls in 2024.
Before the final home game of the season, Rooker said that he proved to himself that he can be productive in the big leagues. "The biggest thing for me, there's a difference between coming up here and being successful, and then being able to be successful, go through a rut, and come back on the other side and be successful again. That's the biggest thing I've proven to myself is when I go through those patches of not playing as well as I wanted to, or not performing how I wanted to, I have the ability to get out of it and get back to a level which is productive."
During that same interview, Rooker said that the key for him to taking that next step will be to limit strikeouts. "When I take good swings at good pitches, I make really really consistent contact, so if I can just limit [the strikeouts] a little bit, four, five, six percent on strikeouts, that's four, five six percent more balls put in play and gives me a chance for more doubles, more homers, more runs batted in."
At the time of the interview, he was ready to come up with plan to limit the strikeouts, but hadn't figured out which direction it would go just yet. He mentioned that it could be from a physical standpoint and changing some things with his swing, or from a mental standpoint and changing his approach.
Rooker has the right attitude and the right approach to the game to have another fantastic season in 2024. He also has a spot in the middle of the A's order carved out for himself now, too.