J.T. Ginn, Jacob Lopez Rotation Update: What Ginn's Numbers Actually Tell Us
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Heading into the off-day on Monday, there were questions about what the A's rotation would look like when they started playing games again this week. J.T. Ginn was pulled from his outing early on Sunday with right-arm soreness, and lefty Jacob Lopez was not listed among the team's probable starters for the Kansas City Royals series, despite being in line to pitch on Tuesday.
A's manager Mark Kotsay addressed those concerns.
"For J.T., as of now, he played catch, and that catch play went really well. He'll have a scheduled bullpen [on Wednesday] to see how he feels, and we'll make an assessment when we want to insert him back [into the rotation]."
As for Lopez, the plan is for him to go back into the rotation, but Kotsay was not looking to announce a date for when he would start just yet.
It does not appear as though there will be any changes to the A's rotation either due to injury or otherwise at this time.
While Kotsay didn't give a date for their returns to the rotation, in looking at the schedule, the other three pitchers — Aaron Civale, Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs — will all be pitching in the Royals series, so there are only so many ways this could go.
With Ginn and Lopez remaining in the rotation, which is the plan according to the manager, they'll have to be starting on Friday and Saturday — in some order — against the Cleveland Guardians. They both pitched on Sunday, with Ginn starting and Lopez in relief, so there is no clear way to determine who gets the ball first.
Ginn emerging in 2026
While his final numbers last season weren't pretty, with the right-hander posting a 5.08 ERA across 90 1/3 innings to go along with a 1.36 WHIP, there were reasons to believe that he could be a breakout candidate in 2026.
This year, he has shown that he has the stuff to be an effective starter in the major leagues, holding a 3.24 ERA in his first 25 innings of work, spanning seven appearances (four starts). There are a couple of concerns in his profile, though the sample size is small.
First off, he holds a 4.89 FIP, and that is due to his well-above-average left-on-base rate of 84.8%. League average LOB% is at 71.8%. Skill plays a role, but rates that high tend to involve a little bit of luck, and regression is likely to come at some point.
The other concern is his BABIP, which sits well below league average at .209. League average on this one is .288 at this point in the season. In other words, Ginn is getting a little lucky both in terms of the hits he's not allowing, and the runners he's not allowing to score. The numbers suggest more baserunners and more runs allowed in the future.
This all said, he's earning those numbers to a degree. His ground ball rate is 52.1%, which ranks in the 80th percentile this season. He's also limiting hard contact, posting an average exit velocity of 86.4 mph (84th percentile).
The biggest difference for him has been dropping his sinker usage from 51.5% to 37.1%. He's also using his changeup 16% of the time, which is an increase of nearly 7%. In addition, he has been working on implementing his four-seamer this season.
Overall, only his cutter has a batting average — or an expected batting average — over .300. Every other offering has actually been closer to his BABIP figure both in terms of batting average and xBA. If he can clean up his cutter, or lean on it less, the underlying profile is one of a major league starting pitcher. He could even thrive in the starting five.
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Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. Mason Miller once said he likes Jason's content.
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