A's Bullpen Chess Match Could Decide Pivotal Game Two vs. Mariners
In this story:
Before the series began, we mentioned that this would be a key matchup, with A's pitchers struggling with free passes early in the season, and Seattle's offense being one of the best in baseball at drawing walks. Jacob Lopez has a higher walk rate (18.9%) than strikeout rate (17.8%) in the early going, making this a key test for the A's lefty.
He'll either turn the page and have this being a launching pad game into the rest of the regular season, or this could be a start where his spot in the rotation begins to come into question.
Lopez has the potential and showed us plenty of talent at the end of last season, but he hasn't quite been in that same ballpark through four starts in 2026. Coming into the game he holds a 6.38 ERA (6.30 FIP), with his main issue being those walks.
Mariners lineup for Tuesday's game
The Seattle Mariners are switching things up slightly for game two of this series, after the A's took game one and Lawrence Butler said he wants Mariners fans to "go home sad." The adjustment comes with Dan Wilson bringing in his lefty mashers in Rob Refsnyder, who is leading off, and Mitch Garver, who will be catching and batting seventh.
Game 2️⃣ is on deck 👊 pic.twitter.com/lXFdHPDjsL
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) April 21, 2026
Refsnyder hit .302 with a .399 OBP and a 159 wRC+ against left-handers last season, but this year he has gone just 1-for-21 with three walks. That one hit was a solo homer.
Garver has been similarly bad at the plate this season, but on both sides of the dish. He is 1-for-9 against lefties and 1-for-10 against righties. Last year he held a 107 wRC+ against lefties, so the hope for Seattle is that both of these guys can start to find what made them successful against southpaws on Tuesday.
Key matchup to watch
The most intriguing potential matchup here will be the managerial chess match going on between Mark Kotsay and Wilson. With a lefty on the mound, the A's have a potential opportunity to thread the needle and set themselves up for success late in the game. Of course, it would take the game playing out in a specific way to make this happen.
First up, Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone are on the bench to start the game with a lefty on the bump. Presumably, when the A's go to the bullpen (likely a righty), they could enter the game to face the new pitcher. Canzone is just 0-for-3 against lefties, while Raley is just 1-for-2. Seattle doesn't like them facing southpaws.
If Lopez goes five, their spots in the lineup could be coming up in the eighth or ninth innings, and the A's could choose to try their luck with Hogan Harris yet again. As we mentioned previously, the Mariners are one of the worst teams in baseball against left-handers, and this would be a way to really take advantage late in the game.
Randy Arozarena (202 wRC+ against lefties), J.P Crawford (139) and Cole Young (155) are Seattle's only three players that have performed better than league average against lefties to this point. They'll also be slotted in the same cluster of the lineup, making them easier to avoid in a key spot. Arozarena is batting fifth, Crawford sixth and Young eighth.
This all said, Harris threw 25 pitches on Monday night, so it's unclear how available he'll be. The A's added Brady Basso to the roster as a second left-hander, but he is up mostly to provide a different look, and potentially some innings. He's not a leverage arm outside of a specific batter or potentially two.
All of this will put more pressure on Lopez. If he can keep the game within reach early, the A’s may have a path to dictate the matchups late—and steal another one from Seattle.
For more A's insight and analysis, make sure to follow Jason on X @ByJasonB or BlueSky @JasonBurke and the site's Facebook page!
Add us as a preferred source on Google
Jason has been covering the A’s at various sites for over a decade, and was the original host of the Locked on A’s podcast. Mason Miller once said he likes Jason's content.
Follow byjasonb