One Worrisome Projection for the A's in 2026

The A's could use at least one more pitcher this winter

Jul 11, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics pitcher Jack Perkins (50) throws a pitch against the Toronto Blue Jays during the fifth inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images | Ed Szczepanski-Imagn Images

The A's have had a fairly quiet offseason overall, but that's not to say that they haven't made some decent moves. Jeff McNeil is the flashiest addition to the roster thus far, while Mark Leiter Jr. will provide some veteran experience down in the bullpen. The Athletics have also locked up Tyler Soderstrom to a record-setting extension, giving them yet another big bat for a long time.

But the one area that the front office is still looking to improve is the starting rotation, with the hope that they'll be able to land a veteran for their starting five. The A's aren't likely to be bidding on the higher end of the market, but perhaps guys like Chris Bassitt or Nick Martinez could be swayed to play in Sacramento for a year.

In looking at the projections for all of the A's pitchers, there may be more than just a veteran addition that needs to be made.

These projections aren't flattering

Over at FanGraphs, their Steamer projection system is not high on the A's pitching staff in 2026. In fact, they only have three A's pitchers—Jack Perkins, Brady Basso and Leiter—finishing with an ERA below 4.00. They also have those three pitchers accounting for just 152 innings this season, with all three pitching out of the bullpen.

Perkins is set to lead the way with a 3.77 ERA in 34 innings, while Basso is right behind him with a 3.81 ERA across 54 frames. The veteran, Leiter, they have pegged for a 3.92 ERA in 64 innings of work. For Leiter, that's a bit of a blend between his ERA from last year (4.84) and his FIP (3.55). Both Basso and Perkins have had limited experience in the bigs, but have shown a decent amount of upside.

The one big caveat here is that while a 4.00 ERA is the big cutoff, a league average ERA last season was actually 4.16. If we expand the field to being just league average or better, then a number of other arms make the cut.

First up is Mitch Spence, whom they have at 40 innings of work and holding a 4.05 ERA. Behind him is prospect Will Johnston, who just got his feet wet in Triple-A last year. They have him pegged for 12 innings out of the bullpen.

The first potential starter on this list isn't the first, second, or third player you'd probably think of. Instead, it's J.T. Ginn, who struggled mightily at home, but could be due for a big bounceback campaign in 2026. FanGraphs has him at a 4.05 ERA in 94 2/3 innings.

Wrapping up the list they also have John Kuhnel (one inning, 4.09), prospect Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang (10 IP, 4.15), and Hogan Harris (66 innings, 4.16).

Jacob Lopez is the first player in the projected Opening Day starting rotation that shows up on the projections, finishing with a 4.36 ERA. Luis Severino (4.51), Jeffrey Springs (4.63), Luis Morales (4.70) and Luis Medina (4.54 in 114 1/3 innings) round out Roster Resource's projected starters for much of the season.

Cause for concern?

Obviously these numbers are just projections, and aren't set in stone. However, they do use the data available to come up with these projections, and if you take fandom out of the equation, these numbers make a decent amount of sense.

The biggest concern for the A's and their chances of making a run at a postseason berth has to be that just 10.4% of the season's innings are projected to be handled by players with sub-4.00 ERAs. If that ends up being the case, there will have to be some luck involved in how those runs are dispersed by the other pitchers, and some great bullpen management from Mark Kotsay.

The one way to make those numbers work is if there are some blowup outings that inflate player's ERAs, but they confined to just a handful of appearances over the course of the year. Say the A's gave up all of their runs for the season in their first game. Sure, they'd lose that specific game something like 700-4, but then they'd also pitch shutouts the other 161 games of the season.

There is wiggle room in the math is the only point we're trying to make. While it's not the best outcome, it's one that they can certainly work with to begin the season.

It also wouldn't hurt if they made one more addition to the pitching staff.