Toronto Blue Jays Superstar Among MLB’s Best in Advanced Batting Metrics

The Toronto Blue Jays have finally found their footing offensively, and their superstar first baseman has been at the forefront of that success.

Apr 20, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) hits a single against the Seattle Mariners in the fourth inning at Rogers Centre. | Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays have had an intriguing last few months between the 2024 season and now, going from selling off multiple key pieces of theirs during the trade deadline, to making some key free agent signings, to signing their franchise first baseman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., to a $500 million contract.

It has been an absolute whirlwind for fans and media alike, and this has put their public perception in a weird place. Are they competitors? Are they in a partial rebuild?

Through the first few series of 2025, things have become even less clear, with a 12-11 record and a third-place spot in the American League East, they seem to be trying to toe the line between rebuild and competing, pushing more towards the latter.

With their cornerstone piece locked up for 14 more years, they need to find ways to build around him, as he has continued to be one of the MLB's best already this season.

Through 23 games he has 86 at-bats, slashing .291/.392/.395 with 10 RBI, eight runs, one home run, and 14 strikeouts to 14 walks. His fielding has been a little inconsistent however, as in 195.1 innings, he has 141 putouts, 13 assists, 13 double plays turned, and two errors, good for a .987 fielding rate.

Looking beyond just the standard metrics, he has been an absolute powerhouse in some of the key advanced stats this year as well.

According to Baseball Savant, among players with 100 or more plate appearances this season, Guerrero Jr. ranks No. 3 in average exit velocity (93.7 MPH) and No. 4 in bat speed (75.7 MPH). Additionally, he is making good contact with a 12.3% barrel rate (No. 10 in the MLB) and an 11.0% solid contact rate (No. 6 in the MLB).

When looking at his individual percentiles, he is 80th percentile or better this season in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, bat speed, whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and walk percentage. His top exit velocity has increased drastically too, with a 120.4 MPH hit this year compared to a 2024 high of 117.6.

Much of his success has come against the fastball as well, with a .354 batting average and an extremely low 13.7% whiff rate, having seen 229 of the pitches so far this season.

This is the type of success everyone within the organization likes to see from their franchise star, and as things progress throughout the season, it will be intriguing to see how he continues to produce and if he can sustain this level of positive play.