Blue Jays Projected First-Round Pick Draws Comparisons to TCU Outfielder

The Toronto Blue Jays could end up with a first-round pick next July with a similar skill set to another projected first-round pick.

John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

The Toronto Blue Jays are among a select group of teams that won’t be picking among the Top 30 selections in the first round of the MLB draft.

Five teams saw their top selection drop by 10 spots after they exceeded the $241 million competitive balance tax threshold in 2025 by more than $40 million. The Blue Jays were joined by the New York Mets, the New York Yankees, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Blue Jays likely see the investment as being worth it, given they reached the World Series and appear to have a team that can do it again.

But the downside is what would have been the No. 29 overall pick is now the No. 39 overall pick. With the draft seven months away, MLB Pipeline unveiled its first mock draft of the cycle after the MLB draft lottery ended. The site sees the Blue Jays going for prep talent in Blake Bowen, an outfielder out of JSerra Catholic High School in San Juan Capistrano, Calif. He’s drawing comparisons to a college player that could also go in the first round.

Blake Bowen’s Comparison

Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Bowen is a tall, right-handed outfielder who also played wide receiver in football before taking on baseball full-time. He dazzled scouts with an impressive summer on the prep circuit that rose his stock. He’s projected by some to be a center fielder. His comparison, per MLB Pipeline, is TCU outfielder Sawyer Strosnider, a left-handed hitting outfielder expected to go in the Top 12 of the draft.

If Bowen progresses like Strosnider, he’ll end up being a great pick. Strosnider just wrapped up a 2025 season in which he led the team with a .350 average. He also became just the fourth player in the NCAA since 2002 to post a season quadruple-double (13 doubles, 10 triples, 11 home runs, 10 stolen bases). The was the Big 12 freshman of the year, a first-team freshman all-American and a second-team all-American per multiple outlets.

Given how stacked the Blue Jays are on the Major League roster, Bowen would have plenty of time to develop into that kind of player.

Recent Toronto Blue Jays First-Round Picks

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Toronto went mostly with pitching from 2019-22. Alek Manoah was their 2019 first-round pick out of West Virginia. He is now out of the organization, but he put together an All-Star season before control issues and injuries derailed him. Austin Martin, who played shortstop at Vanderbilt, was Toronto’s first-round pick in 2020. He was traded to Minnesota in 2021 in the Jose Berrios deal.

Ole Miss pitcher Gunnar Hoglund was the first-round pick in 2021, and American Heritage (Plantation, Fla.) prep pitcher Brandon Barriera was the first-round pick in 2022. Hoglund was part of the Matt Chapman trade in 2022. Barriera is working his way back from Tommy John surgery in 2024.

Arjun Nimmala, Toronto’s first-round pick out of Strawberry Crest High School in Dover, Fla., played all season at High-A Vancouver and just turned 20 years old. The shortstop is one of the highest-rated prospects in baseball.

Toronto struck gold with its 2024 first-round pick Trey Yesavage, a polished college pitcher from East Carolina who started 2025 with Class-A Dunedin and reached the Majors in September. He was part of Toronto’s World Series run and is expected to be part of the rotation in 2026. Toronto selected another shortstop with their first-round pick last July, grabbing JoJo Parker out of Purvis, Miss.