Framber Valdez Contract Could Make Blue Jays' Dylan Cease Deal Look Like Overpay

When Framber Valdez finally inks his new contract, will the Toronto Blue Jays feel some buyer's remorse over one of their marquee free agent additions?

Free agent pitcher Framber Valdez | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

One of these days, Framber Valdez will finally sign on the dotted line and become a front line starting pitcher for a (likely new) MLB team. With pitchers and catchers reporting in a little over a week from now, you'd figure there is growing urgency on getting the former Houston Astros ace under contract and back on the field.

The Toronto Blue Jays, for their part, are watching the Valdez saga closely. For one thing, the club was curiously listed among his remaining suitors in a recent report by Bleacher Report. Balancing out a righty-heavy rotation with a dominant left-hander makes some sense, but adding Valdez to a unit that already boasts the likes of Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage seems like an embarrassment of riches.

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The other reason why the Blue Jays might be keeping an eye on how the 32-year-old's market develops is how his contract makes the Cease deal look in retrospect.

What Will Valdez's Contract Say About the Cease Deal?

New Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Dylan Cease | Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

At the outset of the offseason, Toronto's front office, including the two-headed management tandem of president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins, were praised for their aggressive all-in approach. In addition to landing Cease in late-November, they brought in Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Kazuma Okamoto at a time when much of the market was still in a feeling-out process.

However, striking early has its disadvantages as well, and the Blue Jays appear to have made their moves while free agent prices remained relatively high. In inking Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, the club shelled out a contract that remains tied for the longest term (Jose Ramirez landed a seven-year extension with the Cleveland Guardians) and second to Kyle Tucker ($240 million) in total value.

At this point, Valdez is projected to land a contract well below that of Cease.

Comparatively, it's hard to argue that Cease is the better pitcher. He has age on his side (at 30 years of age, he is two years younger than Valdez), strikes out more batters and has a strong track record of good health. Beyond that, however, his 3.88 career ERA is roughly half a run higher than Valdez's 3.36 and his 4.55 ERA this past season was nearly a run worse than Valdez's 3.66 mark.

Sure, there's an argument to be made that Cease is the better investment at this stage of his career, but that fully explains neither why one was snapped up in late-November and one remains on the market into February, nor does it fully justify the likely discrepancy in contracts.

There's no question that some reported issues related to Valdez's reputation within the Astros' clubhouse has had a role in cooling his market. That may help in explaining why the 32-year-old is expected to settle for a contract well below his originally anticipated term and value.

Character questions aside, there is a very real possibility that Valdez and Cease offer similar production on the mound this season, albeit at very different value. Toronto can't be too disappointed so long as their new starter pitches up to his potential, but it'll be hard not to notice the contract discrepancy if their contributions are otherwise comparable. Unless, of course, they happen to be teammates.