A Slight Swing Adjustment to Get Jarred Kelenic Going
Fans of the Atlanta Braves know the routine by now -- it's the middle of March, we're done watching practice games and ready to see some bunting in major league stadiums.
Not that kind of bunting, the red, white, and blue ones hanging around most baseball stadiums during the opening week of the season.
It's also that annual time of the year when we tend to overreact to Spring Training performances -- whether good or bad.
You can probably think of numerous Spring Training breakouts that had you convinced a player was about to have a monster year only to never hear from them again once the season began.
Sean Kazmar had a 1.416 OPS in 22 at-bats with 3 home runs for the Braves in 2021 Spring Training.
On the flip side, some players look terrible in Spring Training and wind up having career years.
Dansby Swanson had a .568 OPS in 29 at-bats two years ago and went on to put up the highest wRC+ of his career in 2022.
That entire preamble leads us to today's topic, which is the slow start in Spring Training for Jarred Kelenic. How justified are the concerns over his stats?
Let's Look Back Before We Look Forward
Any concerns Braves fans may have about Jarred Kelenic are warranted, but not based on a small sample size in Spring Training.
In 252 games at the big league level across the last three seasons, he's slashed just .204/.283/.373 with a wRC+ of 85 and a 30.7 percent strikeout rate.
You don't have to look at the Spring Training numbers to see there are real question marks about the type of hitter Kelenic might be with the Braves.
History tells us there is a real chance he can't figure it out and loses his job at some point during the season in favor of a Spring standout that everyone suddenly loves in Forrest Wall.
His past isn't without hope -- at least when looking at the minor-league level.
Across five minor league seasons, he's slashing .295/.370/.538 with 57 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 299 games.
In 2022 he put up a wRC+ of 123 with a strikeout rate of just 20.8 percent in 86 games at Triple-A. The ability is in there somewhere, his issue has been translating that to the big-league level.
Diving Into Those Hardly Useful Spring Training Numbers
The Braves are giving Kelenic as many opportunities as possible this Grapefruit League to work on whatever adjustments the coaching staff has made with him, as he leads the team with 34 plate appearances.
Unfortunately, the results just haven't been there. He has 2 hits (both singles) with 4 walks and 7 strikeouts.
If you want to look at one positive in this somewhat meaningless and small sample size, that would be a strikeout rate of 23.3 percent, which would be a huge improvement for Kelenic.
Shouldn't we all be positive right now? We're just two weeks away from Opening Day!
But as my good friend Eminem says, "Snap back to reality, ope, there goes gravity." (More on gravity in a minute.)
There is no question the results in Spring Training for Kelenic have been less than ideal. He undoubtedly can't feel good about coming to a new team and going 2-30 -- even in a Spring Training setting.
One thing we've learned about Kelenic since joining the Braves is that he works hard and is motivated to be great.
Perhaps he's putting too much pressure on himself. If he's not careful he'll tip, tip, tip, and just go pop.
He's Closer to Going Ham Than You Think
I watched a lot of Jarred Kelenic in the offseason and have seen almost every at-bat televised this Spring Training.
If you have too, you might be thinking the same thing -- what's with all the groundballs to the pull side?
Twelve of the 23 balls he's put in play this Spring have been groundouts, and all but one has been to the right side of the infield. That's a groundball rate of 52.2 percent, which is 10 percent higher than his career norm.
He's also pulled the ball 65.2 percent of the time this Spring, which would be 15 percent higher than his career mark.
Again, we're dealing with a small sample size here, but it's not a trend you want to see continue.
I posted a tweet on Tuesday on the similarities I see in Jason Heyward who also seemed to hit a lot of groundballs to the right side.
The part in that tweet many people failed to read was the part about Heyward having good seasons in Atlanta.
Even with a 43.7 percent groundball rate and 45.8 percent pull rate in 2013, Heyward managed to put up a 120 wRC+ season with 3.1 fWAR.
However, Heyward never reached that power potential many thought he would have.
He somehow pulled it off in 2012 with 27 home runs despite a 44 percent groundball rate and 44.3 percent pull rate.
But in his other four years in Atlanta, he hit 18, 14, 14, and 11 home runs.
Maybe the expectations are too high for Kelenic -- as they were for Heyward -- but I believe there is 20-20 potential in there like we got from Heyward in 2012.
For him to get there, he has to find a way to get more lift on the baseball and I can almost guarantee you that's what the Braves coaching staff is preaching to him.
Pulling the ball 40 percent of the time isn't a bad thing if you're able to consistently get lift on the baseball.
Kelenic's average launch angle last year was just 10.1 percent. If he can get that into the mid-teens you're going to see him reach that 20 home run mark.
I mentioned Michael Harris in the tweet above, but that's not a great comparison as it's a different profile.
While MH2 can also tend to roll over on too many baseballs, he's also somebody who is looking to go gap-to-gap when he's locked in.
Kelenic doesn't have to be that type of hitter -- he can keep his pull approach, but learn to get more lift on the baseball.
He hits the ball hard enough with an average exit velocity of 90.9 percent last year and an EV50 of 101.5 MPH. A 9.5 percent barrel rate is good as well.
As Spring Training concludes and we go into the regular season, keep an eye on that launch angle for Kelenic, and let's see if he makes some improvement. If so, there is a good chance he becomes that difference-maker at the bottom of the lineup the Braves thought they were getting.
