Could the Atlanta Braves trade for Randy Arozarena?
The Atlanta Braves are looking to reload the pitching staff this offseason as they make a renewed push for a World Series run in 2024, but there's some lingering questions about what they do in left field.
Eddie Rosario didn't have a bad season, batting .255 with 21 homers while being the everyday starter against right-handers. But platoon-mate Kevin Pillar has already indicated that's he moving on and Rosario has only a 2024 club option, priced at $9M, left on his deal.
Is it feasible that Atlanta could upgrade via trade with an everyday starter in Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays?
Why would Tampa Bay trade away Arozarena?
At first glance, it doesn't make sense that Tampa Bay would be willing to deal Arozarena. The 2021 Rookie of the Year in the American League is coming off his second-straight 20+ homer season, having batted .254 with a .789 OPS in 151 games. Playing predominately left field, he made his first All-Star Team this year and has three years of team control left, entering his first year of arbitration this winter.
But there's the rub - he's entering arbitration.
All told, Tampa Bay has sixteen players eligible for arbitration this winter, and going off of the MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections, retaining all 16 of them would cost over $45M.
Tampa Bay's total salary last year was $79M, but their projected payroll would break $130M with all of those players being retained.
Last week, we discussed the possibility of Atlanta trading for Tyler Glasnow in his final year of contractual control - he's owed $25M in 2024 and moving him would go a long way towards bringing down that payroll number next year.
But if he's retained, Tampa Bay needs to make other moves. Only four Rays are projected to make over $3M in arbitration, so it's clear to see what the plan would be: Multiple of the group consisting of infielder Isaac Paredes, right-hander Aaron Civale, Arozarena, and slugger Harold Ramirez would need to leave town.
Civale was acquired at the deadline last season, at the cost of top prospect Kyle Manzardo, so let's assume they keep him. Paredes had a breakout 2023, playing all three non-shortstop infield positions and hitting .250 with 31 homers - all at only 24 years old. Let's assume he's staying, as well.
That leaves Arozarena and Ramirez. Ramirez batted .313 but also started 99 of his 122 games at designated hitter, getting only occasional run in the outfield corners and at first base. And Arozarena's the most expensive of the group.
What would Randy Arozarena cost?
There's two aspects of this, both arbitration cost and acquisition cost.
MLBTR projects Arozarena to make $9M this season in his first year of arbitration, coincidentally the exact amount of Rosario's club option, so the money's a wash.
The acquisition cost is the trickier part.
To get Arozarena via trade will require some work, and it's probably going to hurt. Tampa Bay perpetually has a Top 5 farm system in baseball, and they're especially loaded with young position player talent. Additionally, the Rays always have tough 40-man roster crunches in the fall and frequently need to move high-minors prospects to avoid losing them in the Rule 5 draft for relatively nothing.
So if you want Arozarena, it's going to cost pitching. Young, controllable pitching. They're not going to want Vaughn Grissom - they've got their own Vaughn Grissom clones in Isaac Paredes, and Curtis Mead, and Osleivis Basabe, and...
No, they're going to want young pitching. And for a reliable, all-around player like Arozarena? One who has had 600+ plate appearances in each of the last three seasons, with at least 20 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and a wRC+ of 120 or better in all three of those seasons? (Oh, and doesn't have platoon splits - he batted exactly .254 against both lefties and righties in 2023).
It's going to need to be good controllable pitching.
Looking at our prospect rankings, the conversation is going to start with #5 prospect RHP Owen Murphy or #3 Spencer Schwellenbach. You might be able to get them to take on an MLB-ready starter in someone like Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd as the 2nd piece of the trade, as they've had so many rotation injuries that they'll need to cover innings, but your second piece is probably going to end up being another pre-R5 prospect. Maybe as high as a OF Luis Guanipa (#7), who is still years away from Rule 5 eligibility, but possibly someone in the mid-teens - Jhancarlos Lara (#14), perhaps.
So, what are the odds that this happens?
Honestly, pretty low. Players like this don't usually get traded all that often.
But, when they do, it's about money. I'm thinking about the Marcell Ozuna trade between Miami and St. Louis, when Miami received both Sandy Alcantara and Zac Gallen for Ozuna (and later flipped Gallen for Jazz Chisholm).
Hopefully this trade, if Atlanta makes it, doesn't end up going like the Ozuna trade went for St. Louis.
What do you think? Would you make this deal for Randy Arozarena?
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