Even with Shohei Ohtani joining the Dodgers, the Atlanta Braves still have the better lineup
In case you missed it this afternoon, the Los Angeles Dodgers have signed our #1 free agent on the board, two-way player (and two time unanimous MVP) Shohei Ohtani to an unprecedented ten year, $700M contract.
But, as expected when you start throwing out financial figures like that, some folks are getting a bit carried away.
Take this tweet, for instance, from account "Baseball quotes":
In history? The Dodgers probably don't even have the best lineup next season.
That honor would go to the Atlanta Braves.
Take this sample lineup, offered by Fox Sports MLB:
That top three is incredibly good, and should legitimately be considered one of the greatest trios in modern baseball history. No one's disputing that.
But a lineup's nine players, not three.
And I'm not sure that those nine players, if that is the lineup, is actually better than Atlanta's nine players.
The Dodgers hit 249 home runs last season, batting .257/.340/.455 as a team. Let's give them Shohei's 44 home runs on their 2023 total. It's still fourteen less than the Braves, and that's without taking out DH JD Martinez's 33 homers he hit.
Even counting on increased production from shortstop Gavin Lux, who missed all of 2023 after a torn ACL, I'm still not sure the Dodgers take Atlanta's mantle as best lineup in baseball.
(For reference, Lux hit 6 homers in 129 games in 2022 and has 18 career homers in 273 career major league games, so it's not even clear if he'd hit more homers than the 14 hit by LA's shortstops in 2023.)
The Dodgers saw their shortstops put up a .664 OPS, with 3B (.747), LF (.723), CF (.753), and C (.720) all coming in below .750.
Atlanta, by comparison, had a grand total of one offensive spot (shortstop) put up an OPS below .700, and that was shortstop (.721). Atlanta only had two other spots even below .800, with catcher coming in at .783 and left field coming in at .757. The team total was .845.
(The Dodgers had five of their nine come in below .800, with a team average of only .795. Again, the top three are really good, but it's just not as deep of a lineup as Atlanta's.)
When you include pitching, Atlanta should still be the World Series favorite in the National League
And this doesn't even touch the starting rotations, which on paper favor Atlanta as well.
| Atlanta Braves | Los Angeles Dodgers | |
|---|---|---|
Spencer Strider | SP1 | Walker Buehler (returning from TJ) |
Max Fried | SP2 | Bobby Miller |
Charlie Morton | SP3 | Ryan Pepiot |
Bryce Elder | SP4 | Ryan Yarborough |
Reynaldo López | SP5 | Emmet Sheehan |
I'd feel more comfortable with Atlanta's top three than LA's right now, especially with Walker Buehler coming off Tommy John surgery and potentially facing innings restrictions next season.
But yet, in most sportsbooks, Los Angeles has jumped Atlanta in the World Series odds, sitting around +550 while the Braves are at +650.
Atlanta proved they were better than LA on the field last season, taking the season series four games to three.
(And for all the good that did - both teams were eliminated in four games in the NLDS round, Atlanta thanks to a quiet offense, LA due to deficient starting pitching.)
So, mark your calendars for May 3rd-5th - Atlanta heads to the West Coast for a three game set, and we can decide it on the field.
Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
Key offseason dates for the Atlanta Braves
Projecting the 2024 Atlanta Braves' arbitration salaries
Check out Braves Today on Socials!
Follow Braves Today on Twitter!
Like Braves Today on Facebook!
Check out the homepage for more Atlanta Braves News!
Subscribe to Braves Today on YouTube!
Get Exclusive Braves Merchandise from FOCO