Atlanta Braves Free Agent Target: Luis Severino is a Perfect Buy Low Candidate
The Atlanta Braves will want to bulk up their starting rotation going into 2024, and Luis Severino seems like an obvious buy-low candidate.Whether or not Charlie Morton returns, the Braves should be looking to improve the quality of depth in the starting rotation.
While it's great to have guys like Darius Vines and Allan Winans to help get you through the regular season, they need some big arms they can trust in the postseason. Those arms don't come cheap on the free agent market, and that's why the Braves could look for some buy-low options for pitchers trying to re-establish themselves.
There are several arms that fit that mold this offseason and Luis Severino might be one of the most intriguing.
The now 29-year-old (who will turn 30 in February) is a 2-time All-Star who twice finished in the top 10 in AL Cy Young voting.
Both of those seasons came before an injury-filled 2019 that led to him having Tommy John surgery, missing all of 2020 and basically all of 2021.
Since coming back, he's dealt with a number of soft tissue injuries such as groin and lat strains.
In 2022, it looked like he was back on track with a 3.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 102 innings with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate and .203 xBA.
But this past season was the worst of his career, with a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 89.1 innings with just an 18.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.2 percent walk rate.
Looking at the statcast data, there was no drop in velocity or break on his upper 90s fastball and mid-80s slider, but yet both of those pitches were terrible for him, getting run value grades of -14 and -12 respectively.
Just looking at the heatmap for those two pitches and it's easy to see why those pitches got destroyed -- he was leaving them both over the middle of the plate way too much compared with 2022.
That led to a HR/9 of 2.32, which was the worst in all of baseball among pitchers who threw at least 80 innings -- nearly 1 point higher than his career mark.
The command is something Severino has always struggled with in his career, having a 7.1 percent walk rate.
When you couple command issues with a high home run total, you're going to get 6.65 ERA seasons.
So why take a chance on this guy?
Because when he's right and can command his pitches, it's a guy capable of posting an ERA around 3.
And he did give some hope at the end of the season when he had two shutout performances (against the Nationals and Tigers) and walked just 4 batters in 21.2 innings with 18 strikeouts.
With any move, it depends on the price. But if the Braves could get Severino on a one-year deal for cheap to allow him the chance to regain value before testing the market again at 31, it could be a deal that benefits both sides.
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