What will Atlanta's rotation look like in 2024?

It feels like we know some of the starters who will take the ball for Atlanta, but there's one big unknown right in the middle of the rotation.

Lindsay Crosby | Oct 25, 2023

Now that the World Series is set, Major League Baseball is, at most, two weeks away from free agency and the offseason.

The Atlanta Braves have several needs to fill, with pitching being the biggest of them all - Kyle Wright is expected to miss all of 2024 as he recovers from shoulder surgery and there are several possible non-tenders on the 40-man roster, including Michael Soroka and Yonny Chirinos.

Heading into the offseason, what does Atlanta's 2024 rotation look like?

SP1: LHP Max Fried

Max Fried's your ace, for at least one more season before hitting free agency. He missed time in 2023 due to hamstring and forearm strains, but when healthy, Fried's carried the load for Atlanta and performed under that pressure - in the last four seasons, Fried's made 83 starts and is 43-15 in those, with a 2.66 ERA.

He was an All-Star in 2022, three-time Gold Glove winner, and twice finished in the top-five of Cy Young voting (including 2nd place last year).

For as long as Max Fried is in Atlanta, he's the undisputed ace of this staff.

SP2: RHP Spencer Strider

The Strikeout King of Atlanta, Atlanta's 4th round pick in 2020 shot through the farm system in a hurry and then took MLB by storm. Using a devastatingly effective fastball and slider and not much of anything else, Strider led all of baseball in wins (20) and winning percentage (.800) as well as strikeouts (281) and strikeout rate (13.5 K/9), also toppling John Smoltz's 1996 single-season strikeout record for good measure.

Signing a long-term extension in October of 2022, Strider's the most qualified #2 pitcher in baseball and a lock to move up into the #1 spot when and if Max Fried leaves in free agency.

SP3: RHP Charlie Morton or an acquisition

This is that giant hole we were talking about earlier. The 39 year-old Morton has until five days after the World Series to decide if he wants to come back for his age-40 season or if he's hanging them up to spend more time with the family.

There's arguments for and against bringing Morton back, but it all ultimately boils down to him and what he wants to do.

Atlanta's going to have options to repurpose that money if Morton retires - maybe signing Sonny Gray or trading for Tyler Glasnow - but we won't which direction Atlanta intends to go until we get finality on Morton's decision.

SP4: RHP Bryce Elder

Bryce Elder's a very well-qualified #4 pitcher who was a bit miscast as a postseason #3 at the end of his longest career season in baseball.

A 2023 All-Star on the heels of a 7-2 record with a 2.97 ERA before the All-Star Break, the long season took its toll on Elder, seeing him post a 5.11 ERA in the 2nd half and giving up six runs in only 2.2 innings in his only postseason start, a 10-2 loss in game three of the NLDS.

The core competency of a back-end starter is posting every five days and keeping games winnable, and Elder did that - winning twelve games in 2023, he put up three runs or less in all but four of his starts before the All-Star Break.

The goal now, obviously, is to maintain that consistency over a full season. Elder pitched 180+ innings in 2023, after 137.2 in 2021 and 159 in 2022, and that fatigue over the longest season of his career was cited as a possible reason for his 2nd-half struggles.

SP5: RHP Michael Soroka

Here's where things get dicey.

There's many potential options for Atlanta's fifth starter in 2024, from Elder bumping back to #5 if Atlanta returns Morton and brings in another arm to any one of the 16 different starting pitchers that took the ball to open a game for Atlanta grabbing this spot.

One of the favorites, if he's tendered a contract to return in 2024, is Michael Soroka.

"Maple Maddux" is trying to return to form after two devastating Achilles tears and the subsequent three surgeries robbed almost three years from him. He wasn't quite himself at the major league level in 2023, and the timing of his season-ending forearm strain means he accumulated enough service time while on the injured list to exceed five years of service, allowing him to refuse an assignment to the minor leagues.

Because of this, if he returns he's the most likely to start off in the rotation for Atlanta, as they'd want to see what he was capable of and if he was truly "back". If he were to falter or otherwise not be able to hold onto the job, it's possible you could see Atlanta either try to get him through waivers or trade him to another organization that has the runway to let him work it out at the major league level.

Backup SP5: RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

If things don't work out for Michael Soroka and/or when Atlanta needs another starter, we'll pencil in Atlanta's #1 prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver, into this role. Smith-Shawver rocketed through the minor league system in 2023, starting with High-A Rome out of spring training and debuting with the major league team in July. He ultimately pitched in six games for the Braves in the regular season and another in the postseason, with a 1-0 record and a 4.26 ERA.

Still only 20 years-old, Smith-Shawver will have to earn his spot as the "next man up" in spring training - the 5th starter's job was one of the most contested position battles in spring training, with Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd taking it down to the wire out of camp. And Atlanta showed the organization depth of pitching this season, with Allan Winans, Darius Vines, Kolby Allard, and Yonny Chirinos among the pitchers that got cracks at that #5 spot throughout the season.

Either way, expect the Braves to have learned the lesson from Elder's 2nd-half struggles and find ways to limit the jumps in innings for all oftheir young starters. Smith-Shawver got only 87.1 regular season innings in 2023, and so expectations of more than maybe 100 innings at a maximum should be heavily tempered. There will be plenty of chances for those other pitchers to get major league starts, and seeing all of those players (that return) getting starts should be expected.

How would you grade this rotation?

Looking at the rotation, it's got strength at the top with the dual aces in Fried and Strider, experience (if he returns) with Morton and Elder in the middle, and a lot of potential in the back-end with either a returned-to-form Michael Soroka or the emergence of AJ Smith-Shawver. This is a rotation that can absolutely carry Atlanta to another NL East championship, but offseason reinforcements would be a great sign that general manager Alex Anthopoulos doesn't want to rest on his laurels and just count on the offense to carry this team to the postseason.

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Published Oct 25, 2023

LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com