Veteran's Breakout Potential Reason Braves Haven't Signed Pitcher: Analyst

The Athletic's Jim Bowden argued the Atlanta Braves possess a breakout candidate on their 2025 pitching staff.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Grant Holmes / D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

The Athletic's Jim Bowden has been very critical about how poorly the Atlanta Braves have done improving their roster this offseason. But the baseball analyst appeared to present a counterargument on Jan. 28.

While listing 12 MLB breakout candidates he is excited to scout in Spring Training, Bowden included Braves veteran pitcher Grant Holmes.

Holmes is expected to receive a chance to start in 2025 because of the departures of Max Fried and Charlie Morton.

"One of the reasons the Braves haven’t been more aggressive this offseason in adding pitching depth is the confidence they have in Holmes, who they think can have a breakout season. He was drafted in the first round by the Dodgers in 2014 and spent 10 years in the minors before debuting with Atlanta last June," Bowden wrote. "Now, it looks like everything is starting to click for him. Last year Holmes logged a 3.56 ERA over 26 appearances in the majors after posting a 2.63 ERA in 18 appearances in the minors.

"He can start or relieve and was used in both roles last season, but the Braves view him as a future starting pitcher. Last year with Atlanta, Holmes ranked in the 76th percentile in breaking run value, the 97th percentile in chase percentage, the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and the 90th percentile in walk rate. He averaged 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings and just 2.0 walks per nine. A real sleeper."

Holmes made his MLB debut at 28 years old in 2024. Pitchers not throwing in the Majors until that age don't usually then breakout at 29.

But Holmes showed a lot of potential and versatility in his first MLB season. As a spot starter used when Atlanta was dealing with starting pitcher injuries or wanted to give other starters additional rest, Holmes started seven games, registering a 1-0 record with a 4.01 ERA. He also supported a 1.248 WHIP with 40 strikeouts in 33.2 innings as a starter.

Out of the bullpen, Holmes went 1-1 with a 3.12 ERA, 1.125 WHIP and 30 strikeouts in 34.2 frames.

Unless the Braves change course and sign a starting pitcher before Opening Day, they will likely be counting on Holmes starting to begin the season. On Jan. 13, MLB.com's Mark Bowman projected both Holmes and Ian Anderson being in the starting rotation on Opening Day.

When Spencer Strider returns, the Braves could then slid either Holmes or Anderson into the sixth starter/long reliever role.

Holmes' versatility gives him tremendous value to the Braves. But if he can break out with a strong performance to begin the year, Holmes could be this season's Reynaldo López.

In his first season with the Braves, López posted a 1.99 ERA with a 1.106 WHIP in 25 starts during 2024. He also went 8-5 while earning his first ever MLB All-Star nomination.