Braves Receive Criticism for Signing 'Likely to Regress' Jurickson Profar

The Atlanta Braves finally made a significant addition this offseason, signing outfielder Jurickson Profar to a 3-year, $42 million contract.

But was it the right addition? ESPN's Brandon Doolittle suggested maybe not.

Doolittle gave the Braves a "C" grade for the Profar signing. His top reason was because he "is one player most likely to regress in 2025."

"In 2023, Profar was one of the worst regulars in the majors, producing minus-1.3 bWAR between 111 games with the Colorado Rockies and 14 with the San Diego Padres (FanGraphs actually ranked him last among all 656 position players in WAR at minus-1.6). A free agent at the end of that season, Profar went unsigned: He eventually returned to the Padres after spring training started on a deal with a $1 million base salary," wrote Doolittle.

"He then went out and had the best season of his career for San Diego, hitting .280/.380/.459, starting the All-Star Game and ranking seventh in the majors in on-base percentage. While he's had good plate discipline and above-average contact rates, Profar's batted-ball metrics jumped to levels he had never approached before. His hard-hit rate (balls above 95 mph) had never been higher than 34% and soared to 44.4% (putting him in the 71st percentile of all hitters); his average exit velocity increased from 86.5 mph to 91.1 mph (from the ninth percentile to the 80th).

"So while the metrics generally suggest his 2024 numbers were legit, that doesn't answer the question: Can he do it again? He enters his age-32 season; keep in mind that, since 2004, only four outfielders 30 or older had at least 3.0 bWAR: Aaron Judge, Teoscar Hernandez, Byron Buxton and Profar, who was at 3.6. If there is one player most likely to regress in 2025, it might be Profar, which is why it's hard to give this signing another other than a C grade."

That's fair criticism. It's not the best business practice to sign 31-year-olds coming off career-best seasons.

Even including last season's breakthrough, Profar owns a career .395 slugging percentage. That's a limited amount of power, particularly for an outfielder.

He posted a .368 slugging percentage with only nine home runs and 29 other extra-base hits in 521 plate appearances during 2023.

But the Braves brass apparently believe he will be able to repeat his .280/.380/.459 slash line from last season. He hit a career-high 24 home runs with 85 RBI and 94 runs in 668 plate appearances in 2024.

If he's close to those numbers, Profar will be a left field upgrade for the Braves. And should the team's lineup be healthy for a majority of the 2024 campaign, Profar won't need to carry the Atlanta offense anyway.

The team is hoping Profar is the next Eddie Rosario.

The "C" grade is fair because of the potential for regression from Profar. But the Braves scouting department probably deserves the benefit of the doubt on this type of move. After all, just a year ago, there were quite a few "C" grades for Atlanta acquiring Chris Sale.

This summer, Sale will have his own bobblehead day after winning the 2024 Cy Young award.